Daily Papers

Storm-scale convection-allowing models (CAMs) are an important tool for predicting the evolution of thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems that result in damaging extreme weather. By explicitly resolving convective dynamics within the atmosphere they afford meteorologists the nuance needed to provide outlook on hazard. Deep learning models have thus far not proven skilful at km-scale atmospheric simulation, despite being competitive at coarser resolution with state-of-the-art global, medium-range weather forecasting. We present a generative diffusion model called StormCast, which emulates the high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model-NOAA's state-of-the-art 3km operational CAM. StormCast autoregressively predicts 99 state variables at km scale using a 1-hour time step, with dense vertical resolution in the atmospheric boundary layer, conditioned on 26 synoptic variables. We present evidence of successfully learnt km-scale dynamics including competitive 1-6 hour forecast skill for composite radar reflectivity alongside physically realistic convective cluster evolution, moist updrafts, and cold pool morphology. StormCast predictions maintain realistic power spectra for multiple predicted variables across multi-hour forecasts. Together, these results establish the potential for autoregressive ML to emulate CAMs -- opening up new km-scale frontiers for regional ML weather prediction and future climate hazard dynamical downscaling.

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

Moist convection is a physical process where the latent heat released by condensation acts as a buoyancy source that can enhance or even trigger an overturning convective instability. Since the saturation temperature often decreases with height, condensation releases latent heat preferentially in regions of upflow. Due to this inhomogeneous heat source, moist convection may be more sensitive to changes in flow morphology, such as those induced by rotation, than dry Rayleigh-B\'enard convection. In order to study the effects of rotation on flows driven by latent heat release, we present a suite of numerical simulations that solve the Rainy-B\'enard equations (Vallis et al. 2019). We identify three morphological regimes: a cellular regime and a plume regime broadly analogous to those found in rotating Rayleigh B\'enard convection, and a novel funnel regime that lacks a clear analog within the regimes exhibited by dry convection. We measure energy fluxes through the system and report rotational scalings of the Reynolds and moist Nusselt numbers. We find that moist static energy transport, as measured by a moist Nusselt number, is significantly enhanced in the funnel regime without a corresponding enhancement in Reynolds number, indicating that this funnel regime produces structures with more favorable correlations between the temperature and vertical velocity.

While significant research progress has been made in robot learning for control, unique challenges arise when simultaneously co-optimizing morphology. Existing work has typically been tailored for particular environments or representations. In order to more fully understand inherent design and performance tradeoffs and accelerate the development of new breeds of soft robots, a comprehensive virtual platform with well-established tasks, environments, and evaluation metrics is needed. In this work, we introduce SoftZoo, a soft robot co-design platform for locomotion in diverse environments. SoftZoo supports an extensive, naturally-inspired material set, including the ability to simulate environments such as flat ground, desert, wetland, clay, ice, snow, shallow water, and ocean. Further, it provides a variety of tasks relevant for soft robotics, including fast locomotion, agile turning, and path following, as well as differentiable design representations for morphology and control. Combined, these elements form a feature-rich platform for analysis and development of soft robot co-design algorithms. We benchmark prevalent representations and co-design algorithms, and shed light on 1) the interplay between environment, morphology, and behavior; 2) the importance of design space representations; 3) the ambiguity in muscle formation and controller synthesis; and 4) the value of differentiable physics. We envision that SoftZoo will serve as a standard platform and template an approach toward the development of novel representations and algorithms for co-designing soft robots' behavioral and morphological intelligence.

Tracing the water snowline in low-mass young stellar objects (YSOs) is important because dust grain growth is promoted and the chemical composition varies at the water snowline, which influences planet formation and its properties. In protostellar envelopes, the water snowline can be estimated as a function of luminosity using a relation derived from radiative transfer models, and these predictions are consistent with observations. However, accurately estimating the water snowline in protoplanetary disks requires new relations that account for the disk structure. We present the relations between luminosity and water snowline using the dust continuum radiative transfer models with various density structures. We adopt two-dimensional density structures for an envelope-only model (Model E), an envelope+disk+cavity model (Model E+D), and a protoplanetary disk model (Model PPD). The relations between the water snowline, where T_dust = 100 K, and the total luminosity, ranging 0.1-1,000 solar luminosity, are well fitted by a power-law relation, R_snow=a * (L/L_solar)^p au. The factor a decreases with increasing disk density, while the power index p has values around 0.5 in all models. As the disk becomes denser, the water snowline forms at smaller radii even at the same luminosity, since dense dust hinders photon propagation. We also explore the effect of viscous heating on the water snowline. In Model PPD with viscous heating, the water snowline shifts outward by a few au up to 15 au, increasing the factor a and decreasing the power index p. In Model E+D with lower disk mass, the effect of viscous heating is negligible, indicating that the disk mass controls the effect. The discrepancy between our models and direct observations provides insights into the recent outburst event and the presence of a disk structure in low-mass YSOs.

Based on a time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau system of equations and finite element modeling, we present novel results related with the physics of phase-slippage in superconducting wires surrounded by a non-superconductive environment. These results are obtained within our previously reported approach related to superconducting rings and superconductive gravitational wave detector transducers. It is shown that the phase-slip centers (PSCs) can be effective in originating not only positive but also negative thermal fluxes. With an appropriate design utilizing thermal diodes, PSCs can serve as cryocooling engines. Operating at Tsim 1 K cryostat cold-finger, they can achieve sub-Kelvin temperatures without using ^3He.

The coldest Y spectral type brown dwarfs are similar in mass and temperature to cool and warm (sim200 -- 400 K) giant exoplanets. We can therefore use their atmospheres as proxies for planetary atmospheres, testing our understanding of physics and chemistry for these complex, cool worlds. At these cold temperatures, their atmospheres are cold enough for water clouds to form, and chemical timescales increase, increasing the likelihood of disequilibrium chemistry compared to warmer classes of planets. JWST observations are revolutionizing the characterization of these worlds with high signal-to-noise, moderate resolution near- and mid-infrared spectra. The spectra have been used to measure the abundances of prominent species like water, methane, and ammonia; species that trace chemical reactions like carbon monoxide; and even isotopologues of carbon monoxide and ammonia. Here, we present atmospheric retrieval results using both published fixed-slit (GTO program 1230) and new averaged time series observations (GO program 2327) of the coldest known Y dwarf, WISE 0855-0714 (using NIRSpec G395M spectra), which has an effective temperature of sim 264 K. We present a detection of deuterium in an atmosphere outside of the solar system via a relative measurement of deuterated methane (CH_{3}D) and standard methane. From this, we infer the D/H ratio of a substellar object outside the solar system for the first time. We also present a well-constrained part-per-billion abundance of phosphine (PH_{3}). We discuss our interpretation of these results and the implications for brown dwarf and giant exoplanet formation and evolution.

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery is the primary data type used for sea ice mapping due to its spatio-temporal coverage and the ability to detect sea ice independent of cloud and lighting conditions. Automatic sea ice detection using SAR imagery remains problematic due to the presence of ambiguous signal and noise within the image. Conversely, ice and water are easily distinguishable using multispectral imagery (MSI), but in the polar regions the ocean's surface is often occluded by cloud or the sun may not appear above the horizon for many months. To address some of these limitations, this paper proposes a new tool trained using concurrent multispectral Visible and SAR imagery for sea Ice Detection (ViSual\_IceD). ViSual\_IceD is a convolution neural network (CNN) that builds on the classic U-Net architecture by containing two parallel encoder stages, enabling the fusion and concatenation of MSI and SAR imagery containing different spatial resolutions. The performance of ViSual\_IceD is compared with U-Net models trained using concatenated MSI and SAR imagery as well as models trained exclusively on MSI or SAR imagery. ViSual\_IceD outperforms the other networks, with a F1 score 1.60\% points higher than the next best network, and results indicate that ViSual\_IceD is selective in the image type it uses during image segmentation. Outputs from ViSual\_IceD are compared to sea ice concentration products derived from the AMSR2 Passive Microwave (PMW) sensor. Results highlight how ViSual\_IceD is a useful tool to use in conjunction with PMW data, particularly in coastal regions. As the spatial-temporal coverage of MSI and SAR imagery continues to increase, ViSual\_IceD provides a new opportunity for robust, accurate sea ice coverage detection in polar regions.

The Euclid satellite is an ESA mission that was launched in July 2023. \Euclid is working in its regular observing mode with the target of observing an area of 14,000~deg^2 with two instruments, the Visible Camera (VIS) and the Near IR Spectrometer and Photometer (NISP) down to I_{rm E} = 24.5~mag (10, sigma) in the Euclid Wide Survey. Ground-based imaging data in the ugriz bands complement the \Euclid data to enable photo-z determination and VIS PSF modeling for week lensing analysis. Euclid investigates the distance-redshift relation and the evolution of cosmic structures by measuring shapes and redshifts of galaxies and clusters of galaxies out to zsim 2. Generating the multi-wavelength catalogues from \Euclid and ground-based data is an essential part of the \Euclid data processing system. In the framework of the \Euclid Science Ground Segment (SGS), the aim of the MER Processing Function (PF) pipeline is to detect objects in the \Euclid imaging data, measure their properties, and MERge them into a single multi-wavelength catalogue. The MER PF pipeline performs source detection on both visible (VIS) and near-infrared (NIR) images and offers four different photometric measurements: Kron total flux, aperture photometry on PSF-matched images, template fitting photometry, and S\'ersic fitting photometry. Furthermore, the MER PF pipeline measures a set of ancillary quantities, spanning from morphology to quality flags, to better characterise all detected sources. In this paper, we show how the MER PF pipeline is designed, detailing its main steps, and we show that the pipeline products meet the tight requirements that Euclid aims to achieve on photometric accuracy. We also present the other measurements (e.g. morphology) that are included in the OU-MER output catalogues and we list all output products coming out of the MER PF pipeline.

Structural analyses are an integral part of computational research on nucleation and supercooled water, whose accuracy and efficiency can impact the validity and feasibility of such studies. The underlying molecular mechanisms of these often elusive and computationally expensive processes can be inferred from the evolution of ice-like structures, determined using appropriate structural analysis techniques. We present d-SEAMS, a free and open-source post-processing engine for the analysis of molecular dynamics trajectories, which is specifically able to qualitatively classify ice structures, in both strong confinement and bulk systems. For the first time, recent algorithms for confined ice structure determination have been implemented, along with topological network criteria for bulk ice structure determination. Recognizing the need for customization in structural analysis, d-SEAMS has a unique code architecture, built with `nix`, employing a `YAML`-`Lua` scripting pipeline. The software has been designed to be user-friendly and easy to extend. The engine outputs are compatible with popular graphics software suites, allowing for immediate visual insights into the systems studied. We demonstrate the features of d-SEAMS by using it to analyze nucleation in the bulk regime and for quasi-one and quasi-two-dimensional systems. Structural time evolution and quantitative metrics are determined for heterogenous ice nucleation on a silver-exposed beta-AgI surface, homogenous ice nucleation, flat monolayer square ice formation and freezing of an ice nanotube.

The Universal Morphology (UniMorph) project is a collaborative effort providing broad-coverage instantiated normalized morphological inflection tables for hundreds of diverse world languages. The project comprises two major thrusts: a language-independent feature schema for rich morphological annotation and a type-level resource of annotated data in diverse languages realizing that schema. This paper presents the expansions and improvements made on several fronts over the last couple of years (since McCarthy et al. (2020)). Collaborative efforts by numerous linguists have added 67 new languages, including 30 endangered languages. We have implemented several improvements to the extraction pipeline to tackle some issues, e.g. missing gender and macron information. We have also amended the schema to use a hierarchical structure that is needed for morphological phenomena like multiple-argument agreement and case stacking, while adding some missing morphological features to make the schema more inclusive. In light of the last UniMorph release, we also augmented the database with morpheme segmentation for 16 languages. Lastly, this new release makes a push towards inclusion of derivational morphology in UniMorph by enriching the data and annotation schema with instances representing derivational processes from MorphyNet.

Languages can encode temporal subordination lexically, via subordinating conjunctions, and morphologically, by marking the relation on the predicate. Systematic cross-linguistic variation among the former can be studied using well-established token-based typological approaches to token-aligned parallel corpora. Variation among different morphological means is instead much harder to tackle and therefore more poorly understood, despite being predominant in several language groups. This paper explores variation in the expression of generic temporal subordination ('when'-clauses) among the languages of Latin America and the Caribbean, where morphological marking is particularly common. It presents probabilistic semantic maps computed on the basis of the languages of the region, thus avoiding bias towards the many world's languages that exclusively use lexified connectors, incorporating associations between character n-grams and English when. The approach allows capturing morphological clause-linkage devices in addition to lexified connectors, paving the way for larger-scale, strategy-agnostic analyses of typological variation in temporal subordination.

The stability of mine dumps is contingent upon the precise arrangement of spoil piles, taking into account their geological and geotechnical attributes. Yet, on-site characterisation of individual piles poses a formidable challenge. The utilisation of image-based techniques for spoil pile characterisation, employing remotely acquired data through unmanned aerial systems, is a promising complementary solution. Image processing, such as object-based classification and feature extraction, are dependent upon effective segmentation. This study refines and juxtaposes various segmentation approaches, specifically colour-based and morphology-based techniques. The objective is to enhance and evaluate avenues for object-based analysis for spoil characterisation within the context of mining environments. Furthermore, a comparative analysis is conducted between conventional segmentation approaches and those rooted in deep learning methodologies. Among the diverse segmentation approaches evaluated, the morphology-based deep learning segmentation approach, Segment Anything Model (SAM), exhibited superior performance in comparison to other approaches. This outcome underscores the efficacy of incorporating advanced morphological and deep learning techniques for accurate and efficient spoil pile characterisation. The findings of this study contribute valuable insights to the optimisation of segmentation strategies, thereby advancing the application of image-based techniques for the characterisation of spoil piles in mining environments.