Re: Oil options [C]
[{"sender": "Nay Gupta", "recipients": ["njeevacation@gmail.com <jeevacation@gmail.com>", "Tazia Smith", "Paul Morris/db/"], "timestamp": "03/12/2014 09:35 PM GDT", "subject": "Oil options", "body": "Jeffrey \nVinit Sahni/db/IIIIIIIIIIII \nJust got off the phone with Vinit. \nDB stopped marketmaking OTC oil options - for short dated Pd go for exch traded - better liquidity and lower transaction costs in and \nout. \nMy central scenario - Kerry Lavrov meeting Friday will be a bust and the Crimea referendum this weekend will result in \"yes\" given \nthe 59pct ethic Russian makeup. Sunday/ Monday sanction rhetoric from ranging from g8 expulsion to Iran-style bank embargo is \nraised a notch. Russia follows with more threats of counter-sanctions. My sense is the Obama 5m of 696m SPR release is to show \nMerkel and co he will step in. He needs to because there are 8 small European and Baltic countries that rec 70%+ of their gas from \nRussia. Germany gets 30%. \nCross asset correlations outside of the US are increasing past few days - eg copper and the Turkish lira hourly charts are on top of each \nother past 4 days. I'm worried there is a 30-40pct(?) chance of a hard risk off move in markets in first half of next week - more focused \non European equities, copper, EM FX (Turkey, ZAR, Ruble etc) than SPX. In that scenario oil is way up. \nExchange WTI calls - there are 2 options (as of 3pm est): \n5day expiry 17march 2014 underlying clj4 97.92 \nand \n35d expiry 16apri12014 underlying clk4 97.59 \n** The 5 day options are a bit short - one possibility is sell a 3usd out of the money put (95.5 strike) for 20cents and buy a 2usd OTM \n100 call for 25. Net pay Scents. But 5d is a bit short for me. \n**For 35d expiry You could look at selling 91.50 (6usd OTM put) for 56cents and buying 103c (5.5usd OTM) for 58cents or the 102c \n(4.5usd OTM) for 76cents. \nCL1 <comdty> OMON on Bloomberg has live strikes and bid/ask. \nIf 5d is too short and 35d is too long / not enough gamma, Tazia may be able to source liquidity from the street. Am Cc'ing her for any \nlive pricing or additional comment \nBest \nNay"}, {"sender": "Vinit Sahni", "recipients": ["jeevacation@gmail.com", "Paul Morris"], "timestamp": "03/13/2014 09:47 PM EDT", "subject": "Fw: Oil options", "body": "Jeffrey - apologise if this long to execute next time well be much quicker."}, {"sender": "Paul Morris [1111111111111111110111114111111111114]", "recipients": ["Jeffrey Epstein [jeevacation@gmail.com]"], "timestamp": "3/14/2014 10:27:39 PM", "subject": "Re: Oil options [C]", "body": "I do want to talk to u about this, they spent too much thinking about options here, let me know when u have couple minutes."}]