FW: EOD Commodities Note - 31 Mar
[{"sender": "Prateek Jain", "recipients": ["Ariane Dwyer"], "timestamp": "Tuesday, March 31, 2015 4:06 PM", "subject": "EOD Commodities Note - 31 Mar", "body": "OIL \nAll eyes on Iran talks today which were extended by a day into Wednesday. Earlier in the day, a US official suggested \nthat negotiation may continue another day past deadline if 'it's useful to do so'. Another Russian official commented \nthat a deal was 'closer and closer'. This optimism about an agreement, at least on some points, weighed heavily on oil \ntoday with Brent dropping 2.5%. In my opinion, even if the talks end positively with agreement on key points, the deal \nhas been softened enough compared to what was originally sought by President Obama, and is going to face a tough \nchallenge being approved by a skeptical Congress, which is in fact proposing to impose new sanctions on Iran. \nNigeria's elections ended today easing the political tension, with the ex-military ruler Buhari's winning against the \nincumbent President. In short term, this eased any immediate violence concerns in the country, but this shift in power \ncan lead to the movement of the Boko Haram violence to southern oil producing region of Nigeria and any \ndevelopments there need to be carefully watched. In other news, Yemen rebels seized military base at Bab el-Mandeb, \noverlooking the key shipping route while Saudi-led coalition kept bombing Houthi occupied sites.. \nVols were stronger with wings being bought aggressively today as oil can move quickly away from current levels \ndepending on Iran deal outcome.. overall vols gained about 1% across the curve \nWTI (/change) \tBRE (/change) \nK15 \t52.50% +1.45% \t51.10% +1.05% \nM15 \t51.20% +2.10% \t47.90% +0.90% \nZ15 \t37.10% +1.00% \t35.15% +0.70% \nZ16 \t26.20% +0.10% \t26.40% +0.55% \nMetals \n3m Ivls \tdod change \tsupport \tresistance \nAl $1785 \t-$12.5 \t$1750 \t$1800 \nCu $6041 \t-$41 \t$6000 \t$6300 \nZn $2081 \t-$28 \t$2000 \t$2100 \nNi $12,395 \t-$485 \t$12,000 \t$13,000 \nPb $1820 \t-$5 \t$1800 \t$1900 \nThe base complex traded down in the morning then picked up on improving customer confidence only to crash off again \nat close. China has reduced the deposits required from home buyers for the second time in 6 months in an attempt to \nboost sliding house prices, which should have knock on effects in the copper and nickel markets. Nickel continues its \nslide as CTA funds have sold off heavily on the supply crunch failing to materialize and demand from the stainless steel \nmarket evaporating. Nickel ore supplies are also returning from the Philippines as the rainy season ends, adding further \nsupply pressure. Chinese NPI producers are cutting production, selling stocks or attempting to secure loans on the back \nof stocks in warehouses. Rio Tinto have resolved the their tax dispute with the Mongolian government over the Oyu \nTolgoi copper mine but financing still needs to be negotiated over phase ll of the development there. Zambia's Mining \nand finance ministers have indicated that they may consider temporarily reverting to the old tax regime or making deals \non a mine by mine basis as the IMF applaud their efforts to compromise and encouraged them to implement a \ntransparent system that applies to all mines. Vietnam is expected to increase its aluminia output by 20% to \n650kMT/year as its first plant reaches full capacity this month. \nShanghai Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 108.1 kMT. LME Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 1888 \nkMT Shanghai Copper on warrant stocks are flat at 86.7 kMT. LME Copper stocks are up 0.11% to 252 kMT. LME Nickel \nstocks are up 0.41% to 332 kMT. \nCopper Vols are down 0.5%, Ali Vols are down 0.25%, Nickel Vols are up 1%, Lead Vols are unch Zinc Vols are unch \nUpcoming Data \n30/3-Chicago PMI-Sury 51.7%, Actual 46.3%, Prior 45.8% \n30/3-US Consumer Confidence Index -Sury 96.4, Actual 101.3, Prior 96.4"}, {"sender": "Daniel Sabba", "recipients": ["jeffrey E. [jeevacation@gmail.com]"], "timestamp": "3/31/2015 8:06:56 PM", "subject": "FW: EOD Commodities Note - 31 Mar", "body": ""}]