Oil options
[{"sender": "Nav Gupta", "recipients": ["\"jeevacation@gmail.com\" <jeevacation@gmail.com>", "Tazia Smith", "Paul Morris/db/", "Vinit Sahni/db/"], "timestamp": "03/12/2014 09:35 PM GDT", "subject": "Oil options", "body": "Jeffrey\n\nJust got off the phone with Vinit.\nDB stopped marketmaking OTC oil options - for short dated I'd go for exch traded - better liquidity and lower transaction costs in and\nout.\n\nMy central scenario - Kerry Lavrov meeting Friday will be a bust and the Crimea referendum this weekend will result in \"yes\" given\nthe 59pct ethic Russian makeup. Sunday/ Monday sanction rhetoric from ranging from g8 expulsion to Iran-style bank embargo is\nraised a notch. Russia follows with more threats of counter-sanctions. My sense is the Obama 5m of 696m SPR release is to show\nMerkel and co he will step in. He needs to because there are 8 small European and Baltic countries that rec 70%+ of their gas from\nRussia. Germany gets 30%.\n\nCross asset correlations outside of the US are increasing past few days - eg copper and the Turkish lira hourly charts are on top of each\nother past 4 days. I'm worried there is a 30-40pct(?) chance of a hard risk off move in markets in first half of next week - more focused\non European equities, copper, EM FX (Turkey, ZAR, Ruble etc) than SPX. In that scenario oil is way up.\n\nExchange WTI calls - there are 2 options (as of 3pm est):\n\n5day expiry 17march 2014 underlying clj4 97.92\n\nand\n\n35d expiry 16april2014 underlying clk4 97.59\n\n** The 5 day options are a bit short - one possibility is sell a 3usd out of the money put (95.5 strike) for 20cents and buy a 2usd OTM\n100 call for 25. Net pay 5cents. But 5d is a bit short for me.\n\n**For 35d expiry You could look at selling 91.50 (6usd OTM put) for 56cents and buying 103c (5.5usd OTM) for 58cents or the 102c\n(4.5usd OTM) for 76cents."}, {"sender": "Vinit Sahni", "recipients": ["jeevacation@gmail.com"], "timestamp": "03/13/2014 09:47 PM EDT", "subject": "Fw: Oil options", "body": "Jeffrey - apologise if this long to execute next time we'll be much quicker.\nNav Gupta"}, {"sender": "Vinit Sahni", "recipients": ["jeevacation@gmail.com"], "timestamp": "3/14/2014 2:24:19 AM", "subject": "Re: Oil options", "body": "Tam ona plane to and from tokyo tomorrow next 2-3 days, if u need something otherwise available 24/7 on +447703720599."}]