Fwd: Larry Summers - Foreign Affairs - The Fusion of Civilizations
[{"sender": "Kelly Friendly", "recipients": [], "timestamp": "May 4, 2016 at 2:05:48 PM EDT", "subject": "Larry Summers - Foreign Affairs - The Fusion of Civilizations", "body": "The Fusion of Civilizations\nThe Case for Global Optimism\nForeign Affairs\nMay/June 2016 issue\nBy Kishore Mahbubani and Lawrence H. Summers\n\nThe mood of much of the world is grim these days. Turmoil in the Middle\nEast, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of refugees;\nrandom terrorist attacks across the globe; geopolitical tensions in eastern\nEurope and Asia; the end of the commodity supercycle; slowing growth in\nChina; and economic stagnation in many countries-all have combined to\nfeed a deep pessimism about the present and, worse, the future.\n\nHistorians looking back on this age from the vantage point of later\ngenerations, however, are likely to be puzzled by the widespread\ncontemporary feelings of gloom and doom. By most objective measures of\nhuman well-being, the past three decades have been the best in history.\nMore and more people in more and more places are enjoying better lives\nthan ever before. Nor is this an accident-because despite Samuel\nHuntington's foreboding, what has occurred over recent generations is not a\nclash of civilizations but a fusion of civilizations.\n\nTo put it simply, the great world civilizations, which used to have detached\nand separate identities, now have increasingly overlapping areas of\ncommonality. Most people around the world now have the same aspirations\nas the Western middle classes: they want their children to get good\neducations, land good jobs, and live happy, productive lives as members of\nstable, peaceful communities. Instead of feeling depressed, the West should\nbe celebrating its phenomenal success at injecting the key elements of its\nworldview into other great civilizations.\n\nThe march of reason, triggered in the West by the Enlightenment, is\nspreading globally, leading to the emergence of pragmatic problem-solving\ncultures in every region and making it possible to envisage the emergence of\na stable and sustainable rules-based order. There is every reason to believe,\nmoreover, that the next few decades can be even better for humanity than\nthe last few-so long as the West does not lose confidence in its core values\nand retreat from global engagement. The greatest danger of the current\npessimism, therefore, is that it might become a self-fulfilling prophecy,\nleading to fear and withdrawal rather than attempts to reinvigorate the\nexisting global system.\n\nThe origins of the contemporary era lie in the West's transformation during\nthe Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and the Industrial Revolution. No\nother civilization can take credit for giving birth to modernity. This was not\ndone with some benign intent to uplift humanity in general; there were\nmany problems along the way, and the explosion of Western power across\nthe globe had some terrible consequences for other cultures and regions. Yet\nthe ultimate result was the diffusion of a modern outlook that relies on\nscience and rationality to solve problems, much to the ultimate benefit of\nthe planet's population.\n\nAs recently as half a century ago, for example, there was a global clash of\neconomic ideologies. Nikita Khrushchev, the former leader of the Soviet\nUnion, could claim that the state was better at delivering basic goods to\ncitizens than free markets were, but today such a view would be laughed at.\nThe market economy has made Chinese and Indian workers today far more\nproductive than they were under Mao Zedong or Jawaharlal Nehru, India's\nfirst prime minister. Societies now accept the simple fact that workers need\nmaterial incentives to be productive, which has led to increased dignity and\nself-worth. The vast majority of humanity is literate, is at least somewhat\nmobile, and has access to the world's store of existing knowledge. Around\nhalf of the adults in the world own a smartphone, and there are now more\nconnected mobile devices in total than there are people on the planet.\n\nThe spread of science and technology, meanwhile, has also improved human\ndignity and well-being. Most people used to experience lives that were nasty,\nbrutish, and short. Today, life expectancy has increased by leaps and bounds\nvirtually everywhere. Infant and maternal mortality have dropped sharply,\nthanks in part to the spread of clear hygiene standards and the construction\nof modern hospitals. According to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as\nrecently as 1988, polio was rampant in 125 countries; today that number is\ndown to two. Aside from among the Taliban and a few pockets of upscale\ncommunities in the United States, the virtues of vaccines are accepted by all,\npart of a general consensus on the virtues of Western science and\ntechnology.\n\nAnd reason is replacing superstition more generally. People around the\nworld now routinely do basic cost-benefit analyses when looking for\nsolutions to problems, leading to a gradual improvement in outcomes\neverywhere, from agriculture and construction to social and political life.\nThis helps explain the dramatic long-term decline in the rates of most kinds\nof conflict and violence that the Harvard scholar Steven Pinker has\ndocumented.\n\nAfter slavery and imprisonment, the most degrading condition a human\nbeing can experience is poverty. In 2000, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan\nannounced as one of the ambitious Millennium Development Goals halving\nextreme global poverty by 2015. That goal was far exceeded, and the U.S.\nNational Intelligence Council has predicted that extreme poverty will be\nreduced even further by 203o-which would constitute one of the most\nremarkable developments in human history. The global middle class,\nmeanwhile, is projected to rise from 1.8 billion in 2009 to 3.2 billion in\n2020 and 4.9 billion in 2030. The world's infant mortality rate decreased\nfrom an estimated 63 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 32 in 2015. This\ntranslates into more than four million fewer infant deaths each year.\n\nInstead of optimism based on this recent progress, however, these days in\nthe West, one more often encounters pessimism related to three current\nchallenges: turbulence in the Islamic world, the rise of China, and intra-\nWestern economic and political sclerosis. But the pessimism is\nunwarranted, because none of these three challenges is insurmountable.\n\nMODERNIZING MUSLIMS\nThe Islamic world, from Morocco to Indonesia, comprises 1.6 billion\ncitizens-more than one in five people on the planet. The vast majority of\nthem share the common global aspirations to modernize their societies,\nachieve middle-class living standards, and lead peaceful, productive, and\nfulfilling lives.\n\nContrary to what some assert, Islam is fully compatible with modernization.\nWhen Malaysia built the Petronas Towers and Dubai built Burj Khalifa, they\nwere not just erecting physical structures but also sending a metaphysical\nmessage: we want to be part of the modern world in all dimensions. Many\nIslamic societies have educated their women. In Malaysian universities, the\nwomen outnumber the men 65 percent to 35 percent. Even some Islamic\ncountries that were initially reluctant to embrace modernization have begun\nto do so. For example, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates\nnow feature satellite campuses of major Western universities. One reason\nfor the shift is that the experience of other regions, such as Asia, has shown\nthat modernization does not simply equal westernization-that it is possible\nto pursue, say, economic and social development while still retaining\ndistinctive cultural characteristics.\n\nIt is true that a certain number of young Muslims will continue to choose\nrebellion against the modern world rather than integration into it, joining\nradical Islamist groups and trying to wreak havoc where they can. About\n30,000 Muslim fighters from all over the world, including the West, have\njoined the Islamic State (also known as ISIS). But however much they\nconstitute a major global security problem, they are dwarfed by, say, the 200\nmillion nonradical Muslims who live peacefully in Indonesia alone.\n\nIndonesia has elected two consecutive leaders committed to integrating the\ncountry into the modern world, and its largest Muslim organization, the 50-\nmillion-plus-member Nandlatul Ulama, has publicly challenged ISIS'\nactions and ideology.\n\nThe real challenge, therefore, is not the Islamic world per se but figuring out\nhow to bolster the pro-modernization trends in that world while containing\nthe radical trend. In retrospect, it was a mistake for the West to have\nremained silent when Saudi funding dramatically increased the number of\nradical madrasahs around the world. A comparable investment today in\nbuilding a good modern school next to each radical one would create a\ncontest for legitimacy that would likely spread Enlightenment values far and\nwide. Such a program could be undertaken by the UN agencies UNESCO\nand UNICEF at relatively modest cost, and it is only one of many possible\nlines of advance in attacking the problem.\n\nCHALLENGING CHINESE\nThe second great challenge many worry about is the rise of China. China's\nsuccess, however, can also be seen as the ultimate triumph of the West. The\nemperor Qianlong famously wrote to Great Britain's King George III in 1793\nsaying, \"Our Celestial Empire possesses all things in prolific abundance and\nlacks no product within its own borders. There [is] therefore no need to\nimport the manufactures of outside barbarians in exchange for our own\nproduce.\" Two centuries later, the Chinese understand that absorbing\nWestern modernity into their society has been crucial to their country's\nreemergence. It has led to rapid economic growth, new and gleaming\ninfrastructure, triumphs in space exploration, the spectacular 2008 Olympic\nGames in Beijing, and much more.\n\nEven as Chinese society has accepted modernity with great enthusiasm,\nhowever, it has not abandoned its Chinese cultural roots. The Chinese look\nat their modern Chinese civilization and emphasize its Chineseness, seeing\nno contradiction. Indeed, China is now experiencing its own cultural\nrenaissance, fueled by its new affluence.\n\nThe duality of the Chinese story is reflected in the West's schizophrenic\nresponse to it. The Nixon administration eagerly sought better relations with\nChina under Mao, and when Deng Xiaoping doubled down by opening up\nthe country, the West applauded the change. The United States generously\naccepted Chinese products into its markets, allowed massive trade\nsurpluses, welcomed China into the World Trade Organization in 2001, and\nkept global sea-lanes open so that China could trade freely. All of this\nenabled China to emerge as the world's number one trading power by 2013.\nThe United States also generously allowed more than a million Chinese\nstudents to study in its universities.\n\nYet the rise of China has also led to deep fears. China continues to be run by\na communist party that has no desire to embrace liberal democracy. China\nhas displayed a belligerent side in some of its dealings with Japan and some\nmembers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations over territorial\ndisputes in the East China and South China Seas. The possibility of an\naggressive, militaristic China cannot be ruled out.\n\nBut we have come a vast distance since the days when Mao openly talked\nabout the possibility of winning a nuclear war, and Chinese history suggests\nthat Beijing will ultimately prefer to join, rather than replace or reject, the\ncurrent rules-based order that the West has created. As the world's number\none trading power, China has the most to lose from a breakdown of the\nglobal economic system. Historically, moreover, what the Chinese have\nfeared most is luan (chaos). This might lead to heavy-handed efforts to\npreserve order domestically, but it should lead Beijing to support a rules-\nbased order at the global level as well. Undoubtedly, as China grows more\npowerful, it will become more assertive. This has happened. But since China\nneeds a few more decades of peace to complete its modernization, it has\nstrong reasons to restrain itself militarily and avoid a conflict.\n\nChinese society will never become a replica of Western society. China's own\nculture is too rich to be absorbed into any other cultural universe. Yet a\nmodernizing China will feature overlapping aspirations in many areas, as,\nfor example, with the rapid spread of Western classical music. In 2008, 36\nmillion Chinese children were studying the piano (six times the number of\nU.S. children doing so), and another 50 million were studying the violin.\nSome Chinese cities can fill the halls of 15 opera houses in one evening.\n\nA modern China with thriving Western classical orchestras and Western-\nstyle universities provides a powerful demonstration of the fusion of\ncivilizations. Western statesmen should allow this dynamic to gain\nmomentum while remaining patient on other areas of change, such as in the\npolitical realm. China's development will not necessarily be linear, but in the\nlong run, it should continue in a positive direction.\n\nPESSIMISTIC POPULISTS\nThe third challenge today is a widespread loss of confidence in the West\nabout its own systems and future potential. Sluggish growth across the\ndeveloped world, stagnant incomes for much of the population, rising\neconomic inequality, political gridlock, and the emergence of populist\ninsurgencies on both sides of the political spectrum have fueled a\nwidespread sense that Western models of governance and economic\nmanagement are floundering.\n\nMany of these problems are real and important. But they are not beyond the\ncapacity of determined leadership to solve, nor do they represent\nfundamental weaknesses of the Western model. So the pessimism strikes us\nas dramatically overdone, like previous bouts of declinism and worry that\nthe West's best days were past. The greatest danger, in fact, is that the\nwidespread pessimism will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Gloomy\nWestern policymakers and publics are more likely to see threats than\nopportunities and to turn away from the world rather than continue to lead\nit successfully.\n\nThis is notable in the rising opposition, for example, to the Trans-Pacific\nPartnership, a major trade deal that would help extend and deepen the\nliberal order across a broad swath of the globe. It is evident in the increasing\nsuspicion of immigrants and refugees and in the growing support for closing\nborders. And it can be seen in the fraying and potential unraveling of\ninternational institutions such as the European Union, formerly a model of\nprogressive international integration.\n\nIt would be a terrible shame if the West walked away from the very\ninternational order that it created after World War II and that has facilitated\nso much security, prosperity, and development over the decades. Instead, it\nshould try to reinvigorate that order, with three moves in particular:\nworking with China and India, bolstering international rules, and\naccentuating the positive global trends that get lost in all the hysteria about\nthe negative ones.\n\nWhy China and India? Because they have the largest populations and\neconomies in the developing world, are led by strong, reform-minded\nleaders, and are approaching the future with dynamism, optimism, and\nhope. Both understand that they need to take on greater responsibilities in\nconfronting global problems, and as last fall's Paris climate agreement\ndemonstrates, they are already starting to do so.\n\nAlthough China's rise has been one of the universally acknowledged\nwonders of the age, India's recent rise has been impressive as well, as India,\ntoo, has embraced modernization, globalization, and Enlightenment\nrationalism. Along the way, India has maintained the world's largest\ndemocracy, successfully accommodated an amazingly diverse cultural and\ndemographic mosaic, and kept its head and its values even under repeated\nterrorist attacks.\n\nAlthough both are Asian powers, they differ so much that developing the\ncapacity to work closely with both, and learning from each, would be a\nmajor step forward in mastering the management of a truly global order.\nThe rapid spread of Western-style universities and orchestras in China will\nprovide new bridges between China and the West. The exceptionally\nsuccessful ethnic Indian community in the United States will provide\nbridges with India. And all this cooperation will accentuate the process of\ncivilizational fusion.\n\nIn contrast to China and India, Russia has held back from thoroughly\nembracing modernity, even though the Soviet Union started modernizing\nbefore China and India. Russia hesitated to join the World Trade\nOrganization and has not yet accepted that ungrudging participation in the\ncurrent rules-based order can facilitate its own progress. The more Beijing\nand New Delhi prosper, however, the more persuasive will be the case for\nMoscow to follow their lead.\n\nAs it works closely with the major developing powers, the West should also\nstep up its efforts to construct a robust rules-based world in general. In\n2003, former U.S. President Bill Clinton said that Americans should try \"to\ncreate a world with rules and partnerships and habits of behavior that we\nwould like to live in when we're no longer the military, political, economic\nsuperpower in the world.\" If Clinton's fellow citizens could accept such\nadvice, the citizens of most other countries would be willing to do the same.\nAnd this might be easier to achieve than many believe.\n\nMuch of today's global multilateral architecture was a valuable gift from the\nWest to the world. Yet the major Western powers have also made sure that\nthese institutions have never grown strong enough or independent enough\nto make real trouble for their creators. UN secretary-generals have been\ncreatures of the permanent members of the Security Council, the leaders of\nthe World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have been drawn\nexclusively from the United States and Europe, and dominance in these\nfinancial institutions has occasionally been exploited to achieve extra-\nfinancial goals. These policies should be reconsidered, for the legitimacy of\nthe system depends on the perception that its rules are developed by and\napplied fairly and equally to all, rather than that they cater to the narrow\ninterests of a few. Picking strong leaders for the major international\ninstitutions and keeping those institutions' operations from being\nundermined or politicized would be a major step forward.\n\nWestern policymakers, finally, should work to highlight the good things that\nare happening around the world rather than harp on the bad things.\nHundreds of millions of people have emerged from poverty in recent\ndecades even as military conflicts have decreased. The convergence of global\naspirations means that a vast majority of countries want to see evolution\ntrump revolution in the reshaping of the global architecture. The\nappearance of pressing transnational problems should drive a convergence\nof interests toward cooperation in finding common solutions. And the\npresence of large, well-educated middle classes in countries around the\nglobe will help keep governments on the right track.\n\nThere is every reason to be confident that the condition of the world will\ncontinue to improve as pragmatism and the use of reason become universal.\nWestern universities have been a crucial driver of this trend. It is not just\nthat their curricula have been copied around the world; the entire ecosystem\nof a modern research university is being replicated, and it is the graduates of\nthese Western-style universities who have in turn introduced modern\nmethods into education, public health, economic management, and public\npolicy more generally. Global management consulting firms have also\ncontributed to progress, spreading best practices and good ideas from the\nWest to \"the rest,\" and increasingly from the rest back to the West. As a\nresult, even formerly desperate and dysfunctional countries, such as\nBangladesh and Ethiopia, are now confidently entering the modern\nuniverse.\n\nIn short, despite the daily headlines that scream doom and gloom, the world\nis actually coming together, not falling apart. So far, the fusion of\ncivilizations has been driven primarily by the injection of Western DNA into\nother civilizations. Over time, the flow of culture and ideas is likely to go in\nboth directions. This has already happened in cuisine, where global\ninfluences have thoroughly penetrated Western kitchens, and something\nsimilar should happen across cultural sectors.\n\nThere will be challenges. There could even be major setbacks. The fusion of\ncivilizations and the social and economic changes associated with it can\nseem threatening to some, creating opportunities for demagogues to exploit\npopular fears, even in the heart of the advanced industrial world. But\nincreasingly open and enlightened societies are likely to avoid this danger.\nIn the twenty-first century, the world will be governed more by the authority\nof ideas than by the idea of authority. In short, the progressive direction of\nhuman history, which has lifted the human condition to heights never seen\nbefore, is set to continue."}, {"sender": "Lesley Groff", "recipients": ["Jeffrey Epstein [jeevacation@gmail.com]"], "timestamp": "5/4/2016 6:06:21 PM", "subject": "Fwd: Larry Summers - Foreign Affairs - The Fusion of Civilizations", "body": ""}]