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# Cube–Root Boundary Fluctuations for Droplets in Random Cluster Models

## 1. Introduction

Consider an Ising model in a finite box (or other “nice” region) $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$ in $`^2`$ at a supercritical inverse temperature $`\beta `$, with minus boundary condition. There is a positive magnetization $`m(\beta )`$, and if $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$ is large, the expected and actual fraction of plus spins observed in $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$ will each be approximately $`(1m(\beta ))/2`$, with high probability. If, however, one conditions on the observed number of plus spins being sufficiently greater than the expected number, then, as first explicated by Dobrushin, Kotecký and Shlosman , the typical configuration contains a single macroscopic droplet of the plus phase, that is, a droplet in which the usual proportions of plus and minus spins are reversed. Further, the droplet will have a characteristic equilibrium crystal shape, the solution of an isoperimetric problem, given by the Wulff construction. If, for example, the temperature is such that the usual proportion of plus to minus spins is 20/80, and one conditions the fraction of plus spins to be 30%, then the typical configuration will show a 20/80 mix except inside a Wulff droplet in which the proportion is approximately 80/20. This droplet will cover approximately 1/6 of the box $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$, so as to account for nearly all of the excess plus spins.

This in an example of the general phenomenon of phase separation. The work of Dobrushin, Kotecký and Shlosman in  provides the first rigorous derivation of phase separation beginning from a local interaction.

In the joint construction  of the Ising model and the corresponding Fortuin-Kasteleyn random cluster model (; see ), abbreviated “FK model,” the droplet boundary appears as a circuit of open dual bonds. If a particular site, say the origin, is inside the droplet, one expects that the outermost open dual circuit $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ containing the origin will closely approximate the droplet boundary. Since the Ising droplet has approximately a fixed area, we can gain information useful in studying the droplet by studying the FK model conditioned to have $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ enclose at least, or exactly, a given area $`A`$. This is our main aim in this paper.

Since it is of interest to study phase separation beyond the context of the Ising model, we establish our results not just for the FK model but for general percolation models having properties known, or reasonably expected, to hold quite widely in the percolating regime. These include the FKG property, a special case of the Markov property, exponential decay of dual connectivity and certain mixing properties.

In  for very low temperatures, and in  for all subcritical temperatures, bounds are given for the boundary fluctuations of the Ising droplet, that is, for the deviation of the boundary of the observed droplet from the boundary of an appropriately translated and rescaled Wulff (that is, equilibrium crystal) shape. Let $`N`$ denote the linear scale of the box. For a droplet also of linear scale $`N`$, the boundary fluctuations are shown to be of order at most $`N^{3/4}\sqrt{\mathrm{log}N}`$, and for a droplet of linear scale $`l_N=N^\alpha `$, with $`2/3<\alpha <1`$, the boundary fluctuations are shown to be of order less than $`\sqrt{N^{2/3}l_N}`$. There is typically never a droplet of linear scale $`N^\alpha `$ for $`0<\alpha <2/3`$; if the excess number of plusses is of order $`N^{2\alpha }`$ with $`0<\alpha <2/3`$, then these plusses are dispersed throughout the minus phase without the formation of a large droplet. Also, when phase separation does occur, other than the single large droplet there are typically no droplets of linear scale greater than log $`N`$.

Heuristics suggest that the boundary fluctuation bounds of  and  are not sharp. To see what the correct fluctuation size should be, one must refine the analysis by considering three separate types of fluctuations. The first type is *shrinkage*—the actual droplet may be smaller than an ideal “full size” Wulff shape large enough to account for all excess plus spins, since some of the excess may be dispersed in the surrounding minus phase. So one should actually consider fluctuations about a shrunken Wulff shape enclosing the same area as the actual droplet. The second type is *local roughness*, defined as inward deviations of the droplet boundary from the boundary of its own convex hull. The third type is *long-wave fluctuations*, defined as deviations of the convex hull of the droplet from the shrunken Wulff shape. (More precise definitions will be made below.)

The local roughness is of particular interest, and is our main focus in this paper, because it is subject to the same type of interface-roughness heuristics as a wide variety of other dynamic and equilibrium systems, including first-passage percolation , , various deposition models , polymers in random environments , asymmetric exclusion processes  and longest increasing subsequences of random permutations , only the last of which is now well-understood rigorously. For a two-dimensional object of linear scale $`l`$, these heuristics predict fluctuations of order $`l^{1/3}`$ and a transverse correlation length of order $`l^{2/3}`$. For the local roughness, this transverse correlation length should appear as the typical separation between adjacent extreme points, where the droplet boundary touches the boundary of its convex hull (see Section 2.) This is what makes local roughness local—one expects distinct inward excursions of the droplet boundary from the convex hull boundary to interact only minimally. The main result of this paper is that in the random cluster model context, with probability approaching 1 as $`l\mathrm{}`$, the average local roughness is $`O(l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3})`$.

Results of Dobrushin and Hryniv  and Hryniv  (at very low temperatures) strongly suggest that the the fluctuations of the droplet boundary about the shrunken Wulff shape should be Gaussian, heuristically resembling roughly a rescaled Brownian bridge added radially to the Wulff shape. In particular, the long-wave fluctuations should be of order $`l^{1/2}`$. We are only able to bound these by $`l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}`$, however, in the random cluster model context.

## 2. Definitions, Heuristics and Statement of Main Results

The results in this paper make use of only a few basic properties of the FK or other percolation model, so we will state our results for general bond percolation models satisfying these properties. A *bond*, denoted $`xy`$, is an unordered pair of nearest neighbor sites of $`^2`$. When convenient we view bonds as being open line segments in the plane; this should be clear from the context. In particular for $`R^2,(R)`$ denotes the set of all bonds for which the corresponding open line segments are contained in $`R`$, and when we refer to distances between sets of bonds, we mean distances between the corresponding sets of line segments. The exception is for $`\mathrm{\Lambda }^2`$, for which we set $`(\mathrm{\Lambda })=\{xy:x,y\mathrm{\Lambda }\}`$. (Again, this should be clear from the context.) For a set $`𝒟`$ of bonds we let $`V(𝒟)`$ denote the set of all endpoints of bonds in $`𝒟`$, and

$$𝒟=\{xy:xV(𝒟),yV(𝒟)\},\overline{𝒟}=𝒟𝒟.$$

We write $`\overline{}(\mathrm{\Lambda })`$ for $`\overline{(\mathrm{\Lambda })}`$. A *bond configuration* is an element $`\omega \{0,1\}^{(^2)}`$.

The *dual lattice* is the translation of the integer lattice by (1/2,1/2); we write $`x^{}`$ for $`x+(1/2,1/2)`$. To each (regular) bond $`e`$ of the lattice there corresponds a *dual bond* $`e^{}`$ which is its perpendicular bisector; the dual bond is defined to be open in a configuration $`\omega `$ precisely when the regular bond is closed, and the corresponding configuration of dual bonds is denoted $`\omega ^{}`$. We write $`(^2)^{}`$ for $`\{x^{}:x^2\}`$. A *cluster* in a given configuration is a connected component of the graph with site set $`^2`$ and all open bonds; *dual clusters* are defined analogously for open dual bonds. (In contexts where there is a boundary condition consisting of a configuration on the complement $`𝒟^c`$ for some set $`𝒟`$ of bonds, a cluster may include bonds in $`𝒟^c`$.) $`C_x`$ and $`C_x^{}`$ denote the regular and dual clusters containing sites $`x`$ and $`x^{}`$, respectively. Given a set $`𝒟`$ of bonds, we write $`𝒟^{}`$ for $`\{e^{}:e𝒟\}`$. The set of all endpoints of bonds in $`𝒟^{}`$ is denoted $`V^{}(𝒟)`$ or $`V^{}(𝒟^{})`$.

For $`\mathrm{\Lambda }^2`$ or $`\mathrm{\Lambda }(^2)^{}`$ we define

$$\mathrm{\Lambda }=\{x\mathrm{\Lambda }:x\text{ adjacent to }\mathrm{\Lambda }\},_{in}\mathrm{\Lambda }=\{x\mathrm{\Lambda }:x\text{ adjacent to }\mathrm{\Lambda }^c\}$$

where adjacency is in the appropriate lattice $`^2`$ or $`(^2)^{}`$.

A *(dual) path* is a sequence $`\gamma =(x_0,x_0x_1,x_1,\mathrm{}x_{n1},x_{n1}x_n,x_n)`$ of alternating (dual) sites and bonds. $`\gamma `$ is *self-avoiding* if all sites are distinct. We write $`xy`$ (in $`\omega `$) if there is a path of open bonds (or open dual bonds, if $`x`$ and $`y`$ are dual sites) from $`x`$ to $`y`$ in $`\omega `$. A *circuit* is a path with $`x_n=x_0`$ which has all bonds distinct and which does not “cross itself” (in the obvious sense.) Note we do allow $`x_i=x_j`$ for any $`ij`$ here, i.e. a circuit may touch itself without crossing. A path or circuit is *open* in a bond configuration $`\omega `$ if all its bonds are open. The *exterior* of a circuit $`\gamma `$, denoted $`\mathrm{Ext}(\gamma )`$, is the unique unbounded component of the complement of $`\gamma `$ in $`^2`$, and the *interior* $`\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )`$ is the union of the bounded components. An open circuit $`\gamma `$ is called an *exterior circuit* in a configuration $`\omega `$ if $`\gamma \mathrm{Int}(\gamma )`$ is maximal among all open circuits in $`\omega `$. (These definitions differ slightly from what is common in the literature.) Similar definitions apply to dual circuits. A site $`x`$ is surrounded by at most one exterior circuit; when this circuit exists we denote it $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_x`$. For $`u,v`$ points in a path or circuit $`\zeta `$, let $`\zeta ^{[u,v]}`$ and $`\zeta ^{(u,v)}`$ denote the closed and open segments, respectively, of $`\zeta `$ from $`u`$ to $`v`$ (in the direction of positive orientation, for circuits.) $`||`$ denotes the Euclidean norm for vectors, Euclidean length for curves, cardinality for finite sets, and Lebesgue measure for regions in $`^2`$ (which one should be clear from the context.) Euclidean distance is denoted $`d(,)`$. Define $`d(A,B)=inf\{d(x,y):xA,yb\}`$ for $`A,B^2`$ and $`d(x,A)=d(\{x\},A)`$. We define the *average local roughness* of a circuit $`\gamma `$ by

$$ALR(\gamma )=\frac{|\mathrm{Co}(\gamma )\backslash \mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|}{|\mathrm{Co}(\gamma )|},$$

where $`\mathrm{Co}()`$ denotes the convex hull. The *maximum local roughness* is

$$MLR(\gamma )=sup\{d(x,\mathrm{Co}(\gamma )):x\gamma \}.$$

By a *bond percolation model* we mean a probability measure $`P`$ on $`\{0,1\}^{(^2)}`$. The conditional distributions for the model $`P`$ are

$$P_{𝒟,\rho }=P(\omega _e=\rho _e\text{ for all }e𝒟^c),$$

where $`𝒟(^2)`$. We say a bond percolation model $`P`$ has *bounded energy* if there exists $`p_0>0`$ such that

(2.1)
$$p_0<P(\omega _e=1\omega _b,be)<1p_0\text{for all }\{\omega _b,be\}.$$

From , bounded energy and translation invariance imply that there is at most one infinite cluster $`P`$-a.s. Write $`\omega _𝒟`$ for $`\{\omega _e:e𝒟\}`$ and let $`𝒢_𝒟`$ denote the $`\sigma `$-algebra generated by $`\omega _𝒟`$. $`P`$ has the *weak mixing property* if for some $`C,\lambda >0`$, for all finite sets $`𝒟,`$ with $`𝒟`$,

$`sup\{\mathrm{Var}(`$ $`P_{,\rho }(\omega _𝒟),P_{,\rho ^{}}(\omega _𝒟)):\rho ,\rho ^{}\{0,1\}^^c\}`$
$`C{\displaystyle \underset{xV(𝒟),yV(^c)}{}}e^{\lambda |xy|},`$
where $`\mathrm{Var}(,)`$ denotes total variation distance between measures. Roughly, the influence of the boundary condition on a finite region decays exponentially with distance from that region. Equivalently, for some $`C,\lambda >0`$, for all sets $`𝒟,(^2)`$,

(2.2) $`sup\{|`$ $`P(EF)P(E)|:E𝒢_𝒟,F𝒢_{},P(F)>0\}`$
$`C{\displaystyle \underset{xV(𝒟),yV()}{}}e^{\lambda |xy|}.`$
$`P`$ has the *ratio weak mixing property* if for some $`C,\lambda >0`$, for all sets $`𝒟,(^2)`$,

(2.3) $`sup`$ $`\left\{\left|{\displaystyle \frac{P(EF)}{P(E)P(F)}}1\right|:E𝒢_𝒟,F𝒢_{},P(E)P(F)>0\right\}`$
$`C{\displaystyle \underset{xV(𝒟),yV()}{}}e^{\lambda |xy|},`$
whenever the right side of (2.3) is less than 1.

Let $`\mathrm{Open}(𝒟)`$ denote the event that all bonds in $`𝒟`$ are open.

The FK model  with parameters $`(p,q),p[0,1],q>0`$ on a finite $`𝒟(^2)`$ is described by a weight attached to each bond configuration $`\omega \{0,1\}^{(𝒟)}`$, which is

$$W(\omega )=p^{|\omega |}(1p)^{|𝒟||\omega |}q^{C(\omega )},$$

where $`|\omega |`$ denotes the number of open bonds in $`\omega `$ and $`C(\omega )`$ denotes the number of open clusters in $`\omega `$, counted in accordance with the boundary condition, if any; see  for details and further information. For integer $`q1`$ the FK model is a random cluster representation of the $`q`$-state Potts model at inverse temperature $`\beta `$ given by $`p=1e^\beta `$. For the study of phase separation involving more than two species, for example in the Potts model, it is useful to be able to “tilt” the distribution with one or more external fields before calculating various probabilities, as well as quantities such as surface tension and magnetization. For the $`q`$-state Potts model with external fields $`h_i`$ on species $`i`$, $`i=0,1,\mathrm{},q1`$, we need only consider $`0=h_0h_1\mathrm{}h_{q1}`$ and then the factor $`q^{C(\omega )}`$ in the weight $`W(\omega )`$ is replaced by

$$\underset{C𝒞(\omega )}{}\left(1+(1p)^{h_1|C|}+\mathrm{}+(1p)^{h_{q1}|C|}\right),$$

where $`𝒞(\omega )`$ is the set of clusters in the configuration $`\omega `$ and $`|C|`$ denotes the number of sites in the cluster $`C`$. We call species $`i`$ *viably dominant* if $`h_i`$ is maximal, i.e. $`h_i=h_0`$. For each species $`i`$ and for finite $`\mathrm{\Lambda }^2`$, corresponding to the species-$`i`$ boundary condition for the Potts model on $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$ there is the $`i`$-*wired* boundary condition on $`\overline{}(\mathrm{\Lambda })`$ for the FK model, in which sites in $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$ connected to $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$ are considered a single cluster $`C_{}`$ and assigned weight

$$(1p)^{h_i|C_{}|}.$$

Given a circuit $`\gamma `$ and a configuration $`\rho \{0,1\}^{(\mathrm{Ext}(\gamma ))}`$, conditioning on $`\rho `$ and on $`\mathrm{Open}(\gamma )`$ induces a boundary condition on $`(\mathrm{Int}(\gamma ))`$ which is a mixture over $`i`$ of the different $`i`$-wired boundary conditions. The weight assigned to $`i`$-wiring in this mixture is proportional to $`(1p)^{h_iN(\rho )}`$, where $`N(\rho )`$ is the number of sites in $`\gamma `$ plus the number of sites in $`\mathrm{Ext}(\gamma )`$ connected to $`\gamma `$ in $`\rho `$. In the absense of external fields, $`i`$-wiring is the same for all $`i`$ and the choice of $`\rho `$ does not affect the boundary condition induced on $`(\mathrm{Int}(\gamma ))`$, which is a form of Markov property, but if an external field is present this property fails. However, the weight assigned to $`i`$-wiring in the mixture for non-viably-dominant $`i`$ is exponentially small in $`|\gamma |`$, uniformly in $`\rho `$, so for large $`\gamma `$ the effect of $`\rho `$ on the boundary condition is uniformly small.

Motivated by the preceding, we say a bond percolation model $`P`$ has the *Markov property for open circuits* if for every circuit $`\gamma `$ (of regular bonds), the bond configurations inside and outside $`\gamma `$ are independent given the event $`\mathrm{Open}(\gamma )`$. We have seen that the FK model has this property if and only if there are no external fields. If $`P`$ is the infinite-volume $`k`$-wired FK model for some viably dominant $`k`$, then letting $`\omega _{int}`$ and $`\omega _{ext}`$ denote the bond configurations inside and outside $`\gamma `$, respectively, we have from the preceding discussion for some $`C,a>0`$

(2.4) $`sup`$ $`\left\{\left|{\displaystyle \frac{P(\omega _{int}A\mathrm{Open}(\gamma ),\omega _{ext}B)}{P(\omega _{int}A\mathrm{Open}(\gamma ))}}1\right|:A𝒢_{(\mathrm{Int}(\gamma ))},B𝒢_{(\mathrm{Ext}(\gamma ))}\right\}`$
$`Ce^{a|\gamma |}\text{for all }\gamma .`$
When (2.4) holds we say $`P`$ has the *near-Markov property for open circuits*. It is easy to see that one can interchange the roles of interior and exterior in (2.4). Further, if $`\gamma _1,..,\gamma _k`$ are circuits with disjoint interiors, $`B_i𝒢_{(\mathrm{Int}(\gamma _i))},A𝒢_{(_i\mathrm{Ext}(\gamma _i))}`$, then by easy induction on $`k`$,

(2.5)
$$\frac{P(A\mathrm{Open}(\gamma _i)B_i\text{ for all }ik)}{P(A\mathrm{Open}(\gamma _i)\text{ for all }ik)}\underset{ik}{}\frac{1+Ce^{a|\gamma _i|}}{1Ce^{a|\gamma _i|}}$$

and

(2.6)
$$\frac{P(A\mathrm{Open}(\gamma _i)\text{ for all }ik)}{P(A\mathrm{Open}(\gamma _i)B_i\text{ for all }ik)}\underset{ik}{}\frac{1+Ce^{a|\gamma _i|}}{1Ce^{a|\gamma _i|}}.$$

An event $`A(^2)`$ is called *increasing* if $`\omega A`$ and $`\omega \omega ^{}`$ imply $`\omega ^{}A`$. Here $`\omega \omega ^{}`$ refers to the natural coordinatewise partial ordering. A bond percolation model $`P`$ has the *FKG property* if $`A,B`$ increasing implies $`P(AB)P(A)P(B)`$.

Throughout the paper, $`ϵ_1,ϵ_2,\mathrm{}`$, $`c_1,c_2,\mathrm{}`$ and $`K_1,K_2,\mathrm{}`$ are constants which depend only on $`P`$. We reserve $`ϵ_i`$ for constants which are “sufficiently small,” $`K_i`$ for constants which are “sufficiently large,” and $`c_i`$ for those which fall in neither category.

Our basic assumptions will be that

(2.7) $`P\text{ is translation-invariant, invariant under }90^{}\text{ rotation, and has the FKG}`$
property, bounded energy and exponential decay of dual connectivity, and
$`P_{\mathrm{\Lambda },\rho }\text{ has the FKG property for all }\mathrm{\Lambda },\rho .`$
When necessary we will also assume weak mixing, ratio weak mixing and/or the near-Markov property for open circuits.

Since $`P`$ has the FKG property, $`\mathrm{log}P(0^{}x^{})`$ is a subadditive function of $`x`$, and therefore the limit

(2.8)
$$\tau (x)=\underset{n\mathrm{}}{lim}\frac{1}{n}\mathrm{log}P(0^{}(nx)^{}),$$

exists for $`x^2`$, provided we take the limit through values of $`n`$ for which $`nx^2`$. This definition extends to $`^2`$ by continuity (see ); the resulting $`\tau `$ is a norm on $`^2`$, when the dual connectivity decays exponentially (i.e. $`\tau (x)`$ is positive for all $`x0`$, or equivalently by lattice symmetry, $`\tau (x)`$ is positive for some $`x0`$; we abbreviate this by saying $`\tau `$ *is positive*.) By standard subadditivity results,

(2.9)
$$P(0^{}x^{})e^{\tau (x)}\text{for all}x.$$

In the opposite direction, it is known  that if $`\tau `$ is positive, ratio weak mixing holds and some milder assumptions hold then for some $`ϵ_1`$ and $`K_1`$,

(2.10)
$$P(0^{}x^{})ϵ_1|x|^{K_1}e^{\tau (x)}\text{for all}x0.$$

It follows from the fact that the surface tension $`\tau `$ is a norm on $`^2`$ with axis symmetry that, letting $`e_i`$ denote the $`i`$th unit coordinate vector, for $`\kappa _\tau =\tau (e_1)`$ we have

(2.11)
$$\frac{1}{\sqrt{2}}\kappa _\tau \frac{\tau (x)}{|x|}\sqrt{2}\kappa _\tau \text{ for all }x0.$$

For a curve $`\gamma `$ tracing the boundary of a convex region we define the $`\tau `$-length of $`\gamma `$ as the line integral

$$𝒲(\gamma )=_\gamma \tau (v_x)𝑑x,$$

where $`v_x`$ is the unit forward tangent vector at $`x`$ and $`dx`$ is arc length. The *Wulff shape* is the convex set $`𝒦_1=𝒦_1(\tau )`$ which minimizes $`𝒲(V)`$ subject to the constraint $`|V|=1`$. (We also refer to multiples of $`𝒦_1`$ as Wulff shapes, when confusion is unlikely.) The Wulff shape actually minimizes $`𝒲`$ over a much larger class of $`\gamma `$ than just boundaries of convex sets (,) but that fact will not concern us here.

Let $`d_\tau (,)`$ denote $`\tau `$-distance; diam($``$) and $`\mathrm{diam}_\tau ()`$ denote Euclidean diameter and $`\tau `$-diameter, respectively. $`B(x,r)`$ and $`B_\tau (x,r)`$ denote the closed Euclidean and $`\tau `$-balls, respectively, of radius $`r`$ about $`x`$. We write $`x+A`$ for the translation of the set $`A`$ by the vector $`x`$. $`d_H`$ denotes Hausdorff distance.

The deviation of a closed curve $`\gamma `$ from the boundary of an area-$`A`$ Wulff shape is given by

$$\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\gamma )=\underset{z}{inf}d_H(\gamma ,z+(\sqrt{A}𝒦_1)).$$

As a convention, whenever we refer to the object in a finite class which maximizes or minimizes something, we implicitly assume there is a deterministic algorithm for breaking ties.

Our description of heuristics for the local roughness is nonrigorous, so we permit ourselves the following partly vague assumptions:

1. The Wulff shape boundary has curvature bounded away from 0 and $`\mathrm{}`$.
2. For a droplet of any linear scale $`l`$, there is a characteristic length scale $`\xi =\xi (l)`$ representing the typical spacing between adjacent extreme points where the droplet touches the boundary of its convex hull.
3. On any length scale $`n\xi `$ the fluctuations of the droplet boundary are of order $`\sqrt{n}`$.

Here (iii) is reasonable because within each inward excursion between extreme points, the droplet boundary is nearly unconstrained, except by surface tension. (i) is known for the Ising case from the exact solution (see , .) Under (i), an arc of $`(l𝒦_1)`$ of length $`n`$ deviates from the corresponding secant line by a distance of order $`n^2/l`$, so we call $`n^2/l`$ the *curvature deviation* (on scale $`n`$.)

On the characteristic scale $`\xi `$ the fluctuations and the curvature deviation should be of the same order, that is,

(2.12)
$$\frac{\xi ^2}{l}\sqrt{\xi }.$$

To see this, consider two adjacent extreme points $`x`$ and $`y`$ of the droplet boundary separated by a distance of order $`\xi `$. If the curvature deviation $`\xi ^2/l\sqrt{\xi }`$ this means the boundary between $`x`$ and $`y`$ is following the straight segment $`\overline{xy}`$ much more closely than it follows the arc of $`(l𝒦_1)`$ from $`x`$ to $`y`$, that is, the droplet has an approximate facet from $`x`$ to $`y`$. But such facets are isoperimetrically disadvantageous since the Wulff shape lacks them under (i), so this is not a probable picture. Therefore we expect $`\xi ^2/l\sqrt{\xi }`$. On the other hand, if the curvature deviation $`\xi ^2/l\sqrt{\xi }`$ then even on length scales $`n\xi `$ an arc of the Wulff shape boundary looks nearly flat compared to the droplet boundary fluctuations, so along such an arc the roughly $`n/\xi `$ extreme points appear as a large number of local maxima of the droplet boundary above the Wulff shape boundary, all approximately collinear. This too is an unlikely picture, so we expect $`\xi ^2/l\sqrt{\xi }`$.

From (2.12) we get $`\xi l^{2/3}`$, and then from (iii), we expect local roughness of order $`l^{1/3}`$. The same relation (2.12) occurs in the assorted systems mentioned in the introduction.

For $`r>q>0`$, an $`(q,r)`$-*bottleneck* in an exterior dual circuit $`\gamma `$ is an ordered pair $`(u,v)`$ of sites in $`\gamma `$ such that there exists a path of length at most $`q`$ from $`u`$ to $`v`$ in $`\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )`$, and the segments $`\gamma ^{[u,v]}`$ and $`\gamma ^{[v,u]}`$ each have diameter at least $`r`$. When $`r`$ is not very large (as in our main theorem, where $`r`$ can be of order $`\mathrm{log}l`$) the absense of $`(q,r)`$-bottlenecks reflects a high degree of regularity in the structure of the boundary.

Our main theorem is the following.

###### Theorem 2.1.

Let $`P`$ be a percolation model on $`(^2)`$ satisfying (2.7), the near-Markov property for open circuits, and the ratio weak mixing property. There exist $`K_i,ϵ_i`$ such that for $`A>K_2`$ and $`l=\sqrt{A}`$, under the measure $`P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A)`$ with probability approaching 1 as $`A\mathrm{}`$ we have

(2.13)
$$ALR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)K_3l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3},$$

(2.14)
$$\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0))K_4l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},$$

(2.15)
$$MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)K_5l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},$$

and, for $`ϵ_2Ar15qK_6\mathrm{log}A`$,

(2.16)
$$\mathrm{\Gamma }_0\text{ is }(q,r)\text{bottleneck-free}.$$

It is easy to see that if $`MLR(\gamma )`$ and $`\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{Co}(\gamma ))`$ are each a sufficiently small fraction of $`\sqrt{A}`$, then $`MLR(\gamma )=d_H(\gamma ,\mathrm{Co}(\gamma ))`$ and hence

(2.17)
$$\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\gamma )\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{Co}(\gamma ))+MLR(\gamma ).$$

(Here “sufficiently small” does not depend on $`A`$.) Hence provided $`A`$ is large, (2.14) and (2.15) imply

(2.18)
$$\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)(K_4+K_5)l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}.$$

Theorem 7.4 below shows that one may condition on $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|=A`$ instead of on $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A`$ in Theorem 2.1.

The basic strategy of the proof of Theorem 2.1 is like that of ,  and : one establishes a lower bound for $`P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A)`$ and upper bounds for the (unconditional) probability that $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A`$ but $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ does not have the desired behavior, these upper bounds being much smaller than the lower bound. Both the upper and lower bounds involve coarse-graining to create a skeleton $`(y_0,..,y_n,y_0)`$ for $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$, and both require showing that the various connections $`y_jy_{j+1}`$ occur approximately independently, that is,

$$P(y_0\mathrm{}y_ny_0)$$

can be approximated in an appropriate sense by

$$\underset{jn}{}P(y_jy_{j+1})$$

and hence by

$$\mathrm{exp}(\underset{jn}{}\tau (y_{j+1}y_j))$$

(setting $`y_{n+1}=y_0`$.) For the lower bound this is a straightforward application of the FKG inequality, but for the upper bound the mixing properties established in Section 3 are needed, and our methods must handle “pathological” forms of $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ having many near-self-intersections. The difficulties are of two types. First, near-independence generally requires large spatial separation, or, under the near-Markov property, separation by a circuit of open bonds, neither of which need be present in our context. Second, direct application of standard mixing properties such as weak mixing requires specifying in advance some *deterministic* spatially separated regions on which the near-independent events will occur, but in our context one does not know *a priori* where the paths $`y_jy_{j+1}`$ may go. This is where Lemma 3.2 below is important.

We consider now the special case of the FK model on $`(^2)`$. For each $`(p,q)`$ there is a value $`p^{}`$ dual to $`p`$ at level $`q`$ given by

$$\frac{(1p^{})}{p^{}}=\frac{p}{q(1p)};$$

the dual configuration to the infinite-volume wired-boundary FK model at $`(p,q)`$ is the infinite-volume free-boundary FK model at $`(p^{},q)`$ (see .) The model has a percolation critical point $`p_c(q)`$ which for $`q=1,q=2`$ and $`q25.72`$ is known to coincide with the self-dual point $`p_{sd}(q)=\sqrt{q}/(1+\sqrt{q})`$ ; positivity of $`\tau `$ is known to hold for $`p>p_{sd}(q)`$ for these same values of $`q`$. For $`2<q<25.72`$, it is known that positivity of $`\tau `$ holds for $`p>p_{sd}(q1)^{}`$, where the $``$ refers to duality at level $`q`$ . The FK model without external field has the Markov property for open circuits; assuming positivity of $`\tau `$ it satisfies (2.7) (see ) and has the ratio weak mixing property . In a forthcoming paper we will show that positivity of $`\tau `$ also implies ratio weak mixing for the FK model with external fields. For now, we can conclude the following from Theorem 2.1.

###### Theorem 2.2.

Let $`P`$ be the FK model at $`(p,q)`$ on $`𝔹(^2)`$ with $`q1`$ (without external fields) and suppose the surface tension $`\tau `$ is positive. There exists $`K_2`$ such that for $`A>K_2`$ and $`l=\sqrt{A}`$, under the measure $`P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A)`$ with probability approaching 1 as $`A\mathrm{}`$, (2.13) – (2.16) hold.

Following  we call a dual circuit $`\gamma r`$-*large* if $`\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\gamma )>r`$ and $`r`$-*small* if $`\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\gamma )r`$.

When $`\tau `$ is positive, in the box $`\mathrm{\Lambda }_N=[N,N]^2`$ the largest open dual circuit typically has diameter of order $`\mathrm{log}N`$. Let $`_N`$ denote the collection of all $`(K\mathrm{log}N)`$-large exterior open dual circuits contained in $`\mathrm{\Lambda }_N`$; here and throughout this section, $`K`$ is a fixed “sufficiently large” constant. To avoid any ambiguity, we impose a wired boundary condition on $`\mathrm{\Lambda }_N`$. Rather than conditioning on $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A`$ as in Theorem 2.1, it is sometimes of interest to condition on the event

$$\underset{\gamma _N}{}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|A.$$

In particular, it is natural to ask whether under such conditioning one has $`|_N|=1`$ with high probability. The alternative most difficult to rule out, as suggested by the form of the error term in Theorem 4.1, is the presence of one or more “small” $`(K\mathrm{log}N)`$-large open dual circuits, of diameter of order $`l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}`$ or less, outside a single large open dual circuit enclosing nearly area $`A`$. In the context of phase separation in the Ising model, single-droplet theorems have been proved in  and . However, the method there for ruling out “small” $`(K\mathrm{log}N)`$-large droplets uses not purely surface tension but rather an argument that it is energentically preferable to dissolve such “small” droplets by spreading the spins they contain throughout the bulk of the system, which is allowed because there is no constraint on the total volume contained in $`(K\mathrm{log}N)`$-large droplets. Thus what we seek here is different, essentially a single-droplet theorem based purely on surface tension considerations. Let $`P_{N,w}`$ denote the measure P conditioned on all bonds outside $`\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Lambda }_N)`$ being open, that is, the measure under a wired boundary condition on $`(\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Lambda }_N))`$.

###### Theorem 2.3.

Let $`P`$ be a percolation model on $`(^2)`$ satisfying (2.7), the near-Markov property for open circuits, and the ratio weak mixing property. There exist $`ϵ_i,K_i`$ such that for $`N1,K_7(\mathrm{log}N)^2Ac_2N^2`$ and $`l=\sqrt{A}`$, under the measure $`P_{N,w}(_{\gamma _N}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|A)`$, with probability approaching 1 (uniformly in $`A`$) as $`N\mathrm{}`$ we have

(2.19)
$$|_N|=1,$$

and, for the unique open dual circuit $`\gamma `$ in $`_N`$,

(2.20)
$$ALR(\gamma )K_3l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3},$$

(2.21)
$$MLR(\gamma )K_8l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},$$

(2.22)
$$\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{Co}(\gamma ))K_4l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}$$

and, for $`ϵ_3Ar15qK_9\mathrm{log}A`$,

(2.23)
$$\gamma \text{ is }(q,r)\text{bottleneck-free}.$$

Here $`c_2`$ is any constant less than

$$sup\{c>0:\sqrt{c}𝒦_1[1,1]^2\},$$

and $`K_3,K_4`$ are from Theorem 2.1.

As noted after Theorem 2.1, the FK model satisfies the assumptions of Theorem 2.3, provided that $`\tau `$ is positive.

## 3. Preliminaries—Coarse Graining and Mixing Properties

We first define our coarse-graining concepts. Our definition of the *s-hull skeleton* follows , with some added refinements. For a contour $`\gamma `$ let $`E_\gamma `$ denote the set of extreme points of $`\mathrm{Co}(\gamma )`$ and let $`\gamma _{co}:[0,1]^2`$ be a curve which traces $`\mathrm{Co}(\gamma )`$ in the direction of positive orientation, beginning at the leftmost lattice site $`u_0`$ having minimal second coordinate. When confusion is unlikely we also use $`\gamma _{co}`$ to denote the image of this curve. Note that

$$u_0E_\gamma \gamma _{co}\gamma (^2)^{}.$$

To define the $`s`$-hull skeleton we require that the $`\tau `$-diameter of $`\gamma `$ be at least $`2s`$. We traverse $`\gamma `$ in the direction of positive orientation, beginning at, say, the leftmost lattice site $`u_0`$ having minimal second coordinate. Given $`u_0,..,u_jE_\gamma `$, go forward from $`u_j`$ along $`\gamma _{co}`$ until either $`u_0`$ or $`B_\tau (u_j,s)`$ is reached, at some point $`u_{j+1}^{}`$. Then backtrack along $`\gamma _{co}`$ until a point of $`E_\gamma `$ is reached (possibly $`u_{j+1}^{}`$, meaning we backtrack zero distance.) If this backtracking does not require going all the way back to $`u_j`$, then this new point of $`E_\gamma `$ is labeled $`u_{j+1}`$. If instead the backtracking does require going all the way back to $`u_j`$, then from $`u_{j+1}^{}`$ continue forward along $`\gamma _{co}`$, necessarily in a straight line, to the next point of $`E_\gamma `$, which is then labeled $`u_{j+1}`$. Stop the process when $`u_{m+1}=u_0`$ for some $`m`$. The *s-hull pre-skeleton* is then $`(u_0,..,u_{m+1})`$. (A similar definition, under the name “$`s`$-hull skeleton,” may be found in .) The sites $`u_0,..,u_{m+1}`$ are sites of $`E_\gamma `$ which appear in order in $`\gamma _{co}`$ (and in $`\gamma `$.) Therefore $`\mathrm{Co}(\{u_0,..,u_{m+1}\})`$ is a convex polygon bounded by the polygonal path $`u_0..u_{m+1}`$. Now

$$𝒲(\gamma _{co})\underset{j=0}{\overset{m}{}}\tau (u_{j+1}u_j),$$

and as noted in , we have

$$\tau (u_{j+2}u_j)>s\text{for all}0jm2.$$

Therefore

(3.1)
$$m1+2𝒲(\gamma _{co})/s.$$

To obtain the $`s`$-hull skeleton we refine the $`s`$-hull pre-skeleton. This is necessary because if $`\gamma _{co}`$ has a sharp corner, then the polygonal path $`u_0..u_{m+1}`$ may clip this corner excessively, meaning part of $`\gamma `$ may be too far outside the polygon for our needs. We must add vertices so that, whenever possible, the angular change between successive segments of the polygonal path does not exceed $`s/\text{diam}(\gamma )`$, which is of the order of the angular change we would obtain if $`\gamma `$ were a circle. By convexity, for each $`x\gamma _{co}`$ there exists a forward tangent vector $`v_x`$ and a corresponding forward tangent line; for $`yx\gamma _{co}`$ let $`\alpha (x,y)`$ denote the angle measured counterclockwise from $`v_x`$ to $`v_y`$. Fix $`0jm`$ and let $`u_{j0}=u_j`$. Note that $`\alpha (u_j,)`$ is a nondecreasing function as one traces $`\gamma _{co}`$ from $`u_j`$ to $`u_{j+1}`$. Having defined $`u_{j0},..,u_{jk}E_\gamma \gamma _{co}^{[u_{j1},u_{j+1}]}`$, let $`u_{j,k+1}`$ be the first point of $`\gamma _{co}`$ after $`u_{j,k}`$ for which $`\alpha (u_{j,k},u_{j,k+1})s/\mathrm{diam}_\gamma `$. If there is no such point, then set $`u_{j,k+1}=u_{j+1}`$ and stop the process. Necessarily $`u_{j,k+1}`$ is a lattice site in $`E_\gamma `$.

We call the sites $`u_{jk}`$ strictly between $`u_j`$ and $`u_{j+1}`$ *refinement sites*. Let $`(w_0,..,w_n,`$ $`w_{n+1})`$ be a relabeling of all sites $`u_{jk},0jm,k1`$, in order on $`\gamma _{co}`$, with $`w_0=w_{n+1}=u_0`$; we call $`(w_0,..,w_n,w_{n+1})`$ the *s-hull skeleton* of $`\gamma `$ and denote it $`\mathrm{HSkel}_s(\gamma )`$. The polygonal path $`w_0..w_{n+1}`$ is denoted $`\mathrm{HPath}_s(\gamma )`$. It is easy to see that the angle between $`u_{jk}u_{j,k1}`$ and $`u_{j,k+2}u_{jk}`$ cannot be less than $`s/\mathrm{diam}(\gamma )`$, for $`k1`$. It follows that the number of refinement sites satisfies

$$nm4\pi \text{diam}(\gamma )/s$$

With (3.1) this shows that the number of sites in the $`s`$-hull skeleton satisfies

(3.2)
$$n+1K_{10}\text{diam}(\gamma )/s.$$

As with the pre-skeleton, the sites $`w_0,..,w_{n+1}`$ appear in order in $`\gamma `$ and in $`\gamma _{co}`$, and $`\mathrm{Co}(\{w_0,..,w_{n+1}\})`$ is a convex polygon bounded by $`\mathrm{HPath}_s(\gamma )`$.

A key property of the $`s`$-hull skeleton involves the extent to which $`\gamma `$ can go outside $`\mathrm{Co}(\{w_0,..,w_{n+1}\})`$. Let $`T_j`$ denote the triangle formed by the segment $`\overline{w_jw_{j+1}}`$, the forward tangent line at $`w_j`$ and the backward tangent line at $`w_{j+1}`$. The angle between these two tangent lines is at most $`s/\mathrm{diam}(\gamma )`$. Now every point of $`\gamma `$ outside $`\mathrm{Co}(\{w_0,..,w_{n+1}\})`$ is in some $`T_j`$, and $`\gamma _{co}T_j\gamma ^{[w_j,w_{j+1}]}`$. Let

$$J=\{jn:\tau (w_{j+1}w_j)2s\}.$$

For distinct points $`x,y^2`$ let $`H_{xy}`$ ($`\overline{H}_{xy}`$) denote the open (closed) halfspace which is to the right of the line from $`x`$ to $`y`$. From the construction of the $`s`$-hull pre-skeleton, if $`\gamma ^{(u_j,u_{j+1})}B_\tau (u_j,s)`$ for some $`j`$, then $`\gamma H_{u_ju_{j+1}}=\varphi `$. It follows that if $`\tau (w_{j+1}w_j)>2s`$ for some $`j`$, then $`w_j`$ and $`w_{j+1}`$ are sites of the $`s`$-hull pre-skeleton and $`\gamma H_{w_jw_{j+1}}=\varphi `$. Thus we have

(3.3)
$$\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )\backslash \mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{HPath}_s(\gamma ))_{jJ}T_j.$$

For $`jJ`$ we have $`|T_j|K_{11}s^3/\text{diam}(\gamma )`$ and

$$d(x,\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{HPath}_s(\gamma )))K_{12}s^2/\text{diam}(\gamma )\text{for all }xT_j.$$

With (3.3) this shows that

(3.4)
$$|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )\backslash \mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{HPath}_s(\gamma ))|K_{13}s^2$$

and

(3.5)
$$\underset{x\mathrm{Co}(\gamma )}{sup}d(x,\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{HPath}_s(\gamma )))K_{12}s^2/\text{diam}(\gamma ).$$

From (3.5) and convexity it follows that

(3.6)
$$𝒲(\gamma _{co})𝒲(\mathrm{HPath}_s(\gamma ))+K_{14}s^2/\mathrm{diam}(\gamma ).$$

We turn now to mixing properties. The following is an immediate consequence of the definition of ratio weak mixing.

###### Lemma 3.1.

() Suppose $`P`$ has the ratio weak mixing property. There exists a constant $`K_{15}`$ as follows. Suppose $`r>3`$ and $`𝒟,^2`$ with $`\mathrm{diam}()r`$ and $`d(𝒟,)K_{15}\mathrm{log}r`$. Then for all $`A𝒢_𝒟`$ and $`B𝒢_{}`$, we have

$$\frac{1}{2}P(A)P(B)P(AB)2P(A)P(B).$$

A weakness of Lemma 3.1 is that the locations $`𝒟,`$ of the two events must be deterministic. The next lemma applies only to a limited class of events but allows the locations to be partially random. For $`𝒞𝒟(^2)`$ we say an event $`A\{0,1\}^𝒟`$ *occurs on* $`𝒞`$ (or on $`𝒞^{}`$) in $`\omega \{0,1\}^𝒟`$ if $`\omega ^{}A`$ for every $`\omega ^{}\{0,1\}^𝒟`$ satisfying $`\omega _e^{}=\omega _e`$ for all $`e𝒞`$. For a possibly random set $`(\omega )`$ we say $`A`$ *occurs only on* $``$ (or equivalently, on $`^{}`$) if $`\omega A`$ implies $`A`$ occurs on $`(\omega )`$ in $`\omega `$. We say events $`A`$ and $`B`$ *occur at separation* $`r`$ in $`\omega `$ if there exist $`𝒞,𝒟`$ with $`d(𝒞,)r`$ such that $`A`$ occurs on $`𝒞`$ and $`B`$ occurs on $``$ in $`\omega `$. Let $`A_rB`$ denote the event that $`A`$ and $`B`$ occur at separation $`r`$. Let $`𝒟^r=\{e(^2):d(e,𝒟)r\}`$.

In the next lemma we give two alternate hypotheses, in the interest of wider applicability, though either hypothesis alone suffices for our purposes in this paper.

###### Lemma 3.2.

Assume (2.7) and either (i) the ratio weak mixing property or (ii) both the weak mixing property and the near-Markov property for open circuits. There exist constants $`K_i,ϵ_i`$ as follows. Let $`𝒟(^2),x^{}(^2)^{}`$ and $`r>K_{16}\mathrm{log}|𝒟|`$, and let $`A,B`$ be events such that $`A`$ occurs only on $`C_x^{}`$ and $`B𝒢_𝒟`$. Then

(3.7)
$$P(A_rB)(1+K_{17}e^{ϵ_5r})P(A)P(B).$$

###### Proof.

First suppose $`P`$ has the ratio weak mixing property. For $`y^{}V^{}(𝒟^r)`$, let $`B^y^{}=B(y^{},r/12),B_{}^y^{}=B^y^{}(^2)^{}`$ and $`D^y^{}=B(y^{},r/6),D_{}^y^{}=D^y^{}(^2)^{}`$. Define events

$$G_y^{}=[y^{}_{in}B_{}^y^{}\text{ by an open dual path}],$$

$$Z_y^{}=[A\text{ and }B\text{ occur at separation }r\text{ on }\overline{}(D^y^{})^c],$$

$$Q=_{y^{}V^{}(𝒟^{})}(Z_y^{}G_y^{}).$$

Then by (2.9),

(3.8)
$$P(G_y^{})K_{18}e^{ϵ_6r}.$$

Let $`C`$ and $`\lambda `$ be as in (2.2). Then for some $`K_i,ϵ_i`$ depending on $`C,\lambda `$, provided $`K_{16}`$ is chosen large enough

(3.9) $`P`$ $`((A_rB)Q)`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{y^{}V^{}(𝒟^r)}{}}P(Z_y^{})P(G_y^{}Z_y^{})`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{y^{}V^{}(𝒟^r)}{}}P(Z_y^{})(P(G_y^{})+K_{19}r^2e^{ϵ_7r})`$
$`K_{20}r^2|𝒟|P(A_rB)(K_{18}e^{ϵ_6r}+K_{19}r^2e^{ϵ_7r})`$
$`K_{21}e^{ϵ_8r}P(A_rB).`$
Therefore

(3.10)
$$P(A_rB)(1K_{21}e^{ϵ_8r})^1P((A_rB)Q^c).$$

Suppose $`\omega (A_rB)Q^c`$, and consider $`𝒞,`$ with $`𝒞^{}C_x^{}(\omega ),𝒟`$ and $`d(𝒞,)r`$ for which $`A`$ occurs on $`𝒞^{}`$ and $`B`$ occurs on $``$ in $`\omega `$. If $`r/2<d(y^{},𝒞)r/2+1`$ for some $`y^{}V^{}(𝒟^r)`$, then $`y^{}C_x^{}(\omega )`$ since $`\omega Z_y^{}G_y^{}`$. Therefore $`C_x^{}(\omega )𝒞^{r/2}`$ and hence $`d(,C_x^{}(\omega ))>r/2`$. For $`(^2)`$ let $`B_{,r}`$ be the event that $`B`$ occurs on some set $`𝒟`$ with $`d(,)>r/2`$. We call $`A`$-*sufficient* if $`\omega _e=0`$ for all $`e`$ implies $`\omega A`$. Let $`𝔄`$ denote the set of all finite $`A`$-sufficient subsets of $`(^2)`$. Since the event $`[C_x^{}=^{}]`$ occurs on $`\overline{}(V())`$ for all $`(^2)`$, we have by ratio weak mixing

(3.11) $`P`$ $`((A_rB)Q^c)`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{𝔄}{}}P([C_x^{}=^{}]B_{,r})`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{𝔄}{}}(1+K_{22}|𝒟|e^{ϵ_9r})P(C_x^{}=^{})P(B_{,r})`$
$`(1+K_{23}e^{ϵ_{10}r})P(A)P(B).`$
Combining (3.10) and (3.11) proves (3.7), provided $`K_{16}`$ is sufficiently large.

Under hypothesis (ii) of weak mixing and the near-Markov property for open circuits, the proof through the first inequality of (3.11) is still valid, but we need to modify the rest of (3.11) as follows. Fix $`𝔄`$ and let $`F=[C_x^{}=^{}]`$, $`𝒟^{}=𝒟\backslash ^r`$, $`𝒜=\{e(^2):r/6d(e,𝒟^{})r/3\}`$. Let $``$ be the set of all circuits (of regular bonds) in $`𝒜`$ which surround $`𝒟^{}`$ and let $`O_𝒜`$ be the event that some circuit $`\alpha `$ is open; for $`\omega O_𝒜`$ there is a unique outermost open circuit in $``$, which we denote $`\mathrm{\Gamma }=\mathrm{\Gamma }(\omega )`$. Note that

(3.12)
$$O_𝒜^c_{y^{}V^{}(𝒜)}G_y^{},$$

(3.13)
$$|\alpha |r\text{for all }\alpha ,$$

and

(3.14)
$$[\mathrm{\Gamma }=\alpha ]=\mathrm{Open}(\alpha )G_\alpha \text{for some event }G_\alpha 𝒢_{(\mathrm{Ext}(\alpha ))}.$$

Let

$$p_\alpha =P(\mathrm{\Gamma }=\alpha ),p_{F\alpha }=P(\mathrm{\Gamma }=\alpha F),p_{FB\alpha }=P(\mathrm{\Gamma }=\alpha FB_{,r}).$$

By weak mixing we have for $`\delta =K_{24}e^{ϵ_{11}r}`$:

(3.15)
$$\underset{\alpha }{}|p_{F\alpha }p_\alpha |\delta ,\underset{\alpha }{}|p_{FB\alpha }p_\alpha |\delta .$$

Define the set of “good” circuits

$$=\{\alpha :p_{F\alpha }p_\alpha (1+\sqrt{\delta })\}$$

and let

$$h(\alpha )=\left(\frac{p_{F\alpha }}{p_\alpha }1\right)1_{[\alpha \backslash ]}.$$

From (3.13), (3.14) and the near-Markov property for open circuits, if $`r`$ is sufficiently large we obtain

(3.16)
$$P(B_{,r}F[\mathrm{\Gamma }=\alpha ])(1+\delta ^{})P(B_{,r}\mathrm{\Gamma }=\alpha ),$$

where $`\delta ^{}=3Ce^{ar}<1`$ for $`C,a`$ as in (2.4).

We need to bound $`P(FB_{,r})`$. To do this, we decompose $`FB_{,r}`$ into 3 pieces by intersecting it with $`[\mathrm{\Gamma }],[\mathrm{\Gamma }\backslash ]`$ and $`O_𝒜^c`$ (the latter meaning there is no $`\mathrm{\Gamma }`$.) We then show that the first piece is approximately bounded by $`P(F)P(B_{,r})`$, and the other two pieces are negligible relative to the size of the full event. Specifically, from (3.16),

(3.17) $`P(`$ $`FB_{,r}[\mathrm{\Gamma }])`$
$`={\displaystyle \underset{\alpha }{}}p_{F\alpha }P(F)P(B_{,r}F[\mathrm{\Gamma }=\alpha ])`$
$`(1+\sqrt{\delta })(1+\delta ^{})P(F){\displaystyle \underset{\alpha }{}}p_\alpha P(B_{,r}\mathrm{\Gamma }=\alpha )`$
$`(1+2\sqrt{\delta }+\delta ^{})P(F)P(B_{,r}).`$
Next, one application of (3.15) yields

$$E(h(\mathrm{\Gamma })1_{O_𝒜})=\underset{\alpha \backslash }{}h(\alpha )p_\alpha \delta ;$$

this and a second application of (3.15), with Markov’s inequality, yield

(3.18) $`P(`$ $`FB_{,r}[\mathrm{\Gamma }\backslash ])`$
$`=P(FB_{,r})P(h(\mathrm{\Gamma })>\sqrt{\delta }FB_{,r})`$
$`P(FB_{,r})(P(h(\mathrm{\Gamma })>\sqrt{\delta })+\delta )`$
$`P(FB_{,r})(\sqrt{\delta }+\delta ).`$
Finally, similarly to (3.9) we have using (3.12)

(3.19) $`P(FB_{,r}O_𝒜^c)`$ $`{\displaystyle \underset{y^{}V^{}(𝒜)}{}}P(FB_{,r}G_y^{})`$
$`\delta ^{\prime \prime }P(FB_{,r}),`$
where $`\delta ^{\prime \prime }=K_{25}e^{ϵ_{12}r}`$. Combining (3.17), (3.18) and (3.19) we obtain

(3.20) $`P(FB_{,r})`$ $`(1\delta \sqrt{\delta }\delta ^{\prime \prime })^1P(FB_{,r}[\mathrm{\Gamma }])`$
$`(1+K_{26}e^{ϵ_{13}r})P(F)P(B_{,r}).`$
Summing over $``$ yields

$$\underset{𝔄}{}P([C_x^{}=^{}]B_{,r})(1+K_{26}e^{ϵ_{13}r})P(A)P(B)$$

which substitutes for (3.11). ∎

## 4. Lower Bounds for Open Dual Circuit Probabilities

In this section we prove the following result.

###### Theorem 4.1.

Let $`P`$ be a percolation model on $`(^2)`$ satisfying (2.7), the near-Markov property for open circuits, positivity of $`\tau `$ and the ratio weak mixing property. There exist $`K_i`$ such that for $`A>K_{27}`$ and $`l=\sqrt{A}`$,

$$P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A)\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A}K_{28}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}).$$

The size of the error term $`K_{28}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}`$ in Theorem 4.1 is important because it determines what “bad” behaviors can be ruled out as unlikely—in particular, those which have probability at most $`\mathrm{exp}(w_1lcl^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}))`$ for some $`c>K_{28}`$. Though our error term is likely not optimal—according to  the optimal error term may be of order $`\mathrm{log}l`$—it is enough of an improvement over the corresponding results in  and  to enable us to establish an apparently near-optimal bound on the local roughness.

The proof of our Theorem 4.1 relies on the following result, the halfspace version of (2.10).

###### Theorem 4.2.

() Let $`P`$ be a percolation model on $`(^2)`$ satisfying (2.7), positivity of $`\tau `$ and the ratio weak mixing property. There exist $`ϵ_{14},K_{29}`$ such that for all $`xy^2`$ and all dual sites $`u,vH_{xy}`$,

$$P(uv\text{ via an open dual path in }H_{xy})\frac{ϵ_{14}}{|x|^{K_{29}}}e^{\tau (vu)}$$

###### Proof of Theorem 4.1.

Let $`s=l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}`$ and $`\delta =K_{30}s^2/l`$, with $`K_{30}`$ to be specified. Let $`(y_0,..,y_n,y_0)`$ be the $`s`$-hull skeleton of $`(l+\delta )𝒦_1`$. For each $`i`$ let $`y_i^{}`$ be a dual site with $`y_i^{}H_{y_{i1}y_i}H_{y_iy_{i+1}}`$ and $`|y_i^{}y_i|2\sqrt{2}`$. By (3.5), provided $`K_{30}`$ is large enough we have

$$\mathrm{Co}(\{y_0,..,y_n\})l𝒦_1\text{and hence}|\mathrm{Co}(\{y_0,..,y_n\})|A.$$

Further,

(4.1)
$$\underset{j=0}{\overset{n}{}}\tau (y_{j+1}^{}y_j^{})𝒲((l+\delta )𝒦_1)+4\kappa _\tau nw_1l+K_{31}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}$$

(with $`y_{n+1}=y_0`$.) Therefore using the FKG property, Theorem 4.2, (4.1) and (3.2),

(4.2) $`P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A)`$ $`P(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0\text{ encloses }\mathrm{Co}(\{y_0,..,y_n\}))`$
$`P(y_j^{}y_{j+1}^{}\text{ via a path in }H_{y_jy_{j+1}}\text{ for all }jn)`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{j=0}{\overset{n}{}}}P(y_j^{}y_{j+1}^{}\text{ via a path in }H_{y_jy_{j+1}})`$
$`\left({\displaystyle \frac{ϵ_{14}}{l^{K_{29}}}}\right)^{(n+1)}\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \underset{j=0}{\overset{n}{}}}\tau (y_{j+1}^{}y_j^{})\right)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(w_1lK_{32}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}).`$
## 5. Upper Bounds for Open Dual Circuit Probabilities

We need to develop a method of cutting a dual circuit across a bottleneck, modifying the bond configuration to create two dual circuits. The cutting procedure is simplified if the bottleneck is clean, in the following sense. The *canonical path* from dual site $`u=(x_1,y_1)`$ to dual site $`v=(x_2,y_2)`$ is the path, denoted $`\zeta _{uv}`$, which goes horizontally from $`(x_1,y_1)`$ to $`(x_2,y_1)`$, then vertically to $`(x_2,y_2)`$. We call a bottleneck $`(u,v)`$ *clean* if $`\zeta _{uv}\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )`$ (except for the endpoints $`u,v`$.) The next lemma will enable us to restrict our cutting to clean bottlenecks.

###### Lemma 5.1.

If a dual circuit $`\gamma `$ contains a $`(q,r)`$-bottleneck for some $`r>3q>0`$, then $`\gamma `$ contains a clean $`(q,r/3)`$-bottleneck.

###### Proof.

Suppose $`\gamma `$ contains a $`(q,r)`$-bottleneck $`(u,v)`$. We have two disjoint paths from $`u`$ to $`v`$: $`\gamma ^{[u,v]}`$ and $`\gamma ^{[v,u]}`$ (traversed backwards.) Each of these may intersect $`\zeta _{uv}`$ a number of times. Accordingly, $`\zeta _{uv}`$ contains a finite sequence of sites $`u=x_0,x_1,..,x_m=v`$ such that the segment $`\zeta _i`$ of $`\zeta _{uv}`$ between $`x_{i1}`$ and $`x_i`$ satisfies $`\zeta _i\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )`$ for all $`iI`$ and $`\zeta _i\mathrm{Ext}(\gamma )\gamma `$ for all $`iI`$, where $`I`$ consists either of all odd $`i`$ or of all even $`i`$. For $`iI`$, we call the segment of $`\zeta _{uv}`$ with endpoints $`x_{i1}`$ and $`x_i`$ an *interior gap*. Let $`\psi `$ be a dual path from $`u`$ to $`v`$ in $`\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )`$ with $`|\psi |q`$. We can extend $`\psi `$ to a doubly infinite path $`\psi ^+`$ by adding on (possibly non-lattice) paths $`\psi _1`$ from $`v`$ to $`\mathrm{}`$ and $`\psi _2`$ from $`\mathrm{}`$ to $`u`$, both in $`\mathrm{Ext}(\gamma )`$. The path $`\psi ^+`$ divides the plane into two regions, $`A_L\gamma ^{[v,u]}`$ to the left of $`\psi ^+`$ and $`A_R\gamma ^{[u,v]}`$ to the right. Replacing $`\psi `$ with $`\zeta _{uv}`$ in the definition of $`\psi ^+`$, we obtain another doubly infinite path $`\zeta ^+`$. The path $`\zeta ^+`$ is not necessarily self-avoiding, but $`^2\backslash \zeta ^+`$ has exactly two unbounded components $`B_L`$ and $`B_R`$, to the left and right of $`\zeta ^+`$, respectively. Since $`\mathrm{diam}(\zeta _{uv})q`$, there exist sites $`z_1\gamma ^{[u,v]}`$ and $`z_2\gamma ^{[v,u]}`$ for which $`d(z_j,\zeta _{uv})(rq)/2>q(j=1,2)`$ and hence $`z_1B_R,z_2B_L`$. Let $`\theta `$ be a (possibly non-lattice) path from $`z_1`$ to $`z_2`$ in $`\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )`$. Then $`\theta `$ must intersect $`\zeta ^+`$, and hence must intersect $`\zeta _{uv}`$, necessarily in some interior gap. Thus every $`\theta `$ from $`z_1`$ to $`z_2`$ in $`\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )`$ must cross at least one interior gap, so there exists an interior gap $`\zeta _i`$ which separates $`z_1`$ and $`z_2`$, that is, exactly one of $`z_1,z_2`$ is in $`\gamma ^{[x_{i1},x_i]}`$. It follows that $`(x_{i1},x_i)`$ is a clean $`(q,(rq)/2)`$-bottleneck. Since $`(rq)/2>r/3`$, the proof is complete. ∎

Define $`R_x=x+[1/2,1/2]^2`$ and $`R_x^+=x+[1,1]^2`$. Let $`Q_1(u,v)=_{x\zeta _{uv}}R_x`$ and $`Q_2(u,v)=_{x\zeta _{uv}}R_x^+`$ . Note that

$$|Q_2(u,v)|4q+8.$$

Let $`J_1(u,v),J_2(u,v),\mathrm{}`$ be an enumeration of the subsets of $`Q_2(u,v)`$. We say a clean $`(q,r)`$-bottleneck $`(u,v)`$ in a dual circuit $`\gamma `$ is of *type* $`\eta `$ if the set of bonds in $`Q_2(u,v)`$ which are contained (except possibly for endpoints) in $`\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )`$ is precisely $`J_\eta (u,v)`$.

We assume we have a fixed but arbitrary algorithm for choosing a particular $`(q,r)`$-bottleneck, which we then call *primary*, from any circuit containing one or more $`(q,r)`$-bottlenecks. When a configuration $`\omega `$ includes an exterior dual circuit $`\gamma `$ for which $`(u,v)`$ is a primary $`(q,r)`$-bottleneck of type $`\eta `$, we can apply a procedure, which we term *bottleneck surgery* (on $`\gamma `$, at $`(u,v)`$) to create a new configuration denoted $`Y_{uv\eta }(\omega )`$. Bottleneck surgery consists of replacing the configuration $`\omega `$ with the configuration given by

(5.1)
$$Y_{uv\eta }(\omega )_e=\{\begin{array}{cc}1,\hfill & \text{if }eQ_1(u,v)\text{;}\hfill \\ 0,\hfill & \text{if }e^{}J_\eta (u,v)\text{;}\hfill \\ \omega _e,\hfill & \text{otherwise,}\hfill \end{array}$$

for each bond $`e`$. The configuration $`Y_{uv\eta }(\omega )`$ then contains two or more disjoint open dual circuits $`\alpha _i`$, each consisting of some dual bonds of $`\gamma `$ and some dual bonds of $`J_\eta (u,v)`$, with no open dual path connecting $`\alpha _i`$ to $`\alpha _j`$ for $`ij`$, and with

(5.2)
$$_i\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _i)=\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )\backslash Q_2(u,v).$$

Further,

(5.3)
$$|Q_2(u,v)|+\underset{i:\alpha _i(\kappa _\tau r/3)\text{small}}{}|\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _i)|K_{33}r^2,$$

and, since $`\gamma `$ is exterior, there is no open dual path connecting $`\alpha _i`$ to $`\alpha _j`$ for $`ij`$. We call each $`\alpha _i`$ an $`(q,r)`$-*offspring* or an $`(q,r)`$-*descendant* of $`\gamma `$. A $`(q,r)`$-offspring of an $`(q,r)`$-descendant is also an $`(q,r)`$-descendant, iteratively. We may perform bottleneck surgery on each $`(q,r)`$-offspring of $`\gamma `$ which contains a clean $`(q,r)`$-bottleneck, and iterate this process until no descendant of $`\gamma `$ contains such a clean $`(q,r)`$-bottleneck (necessarily after a finite number of surgeries.) The bottleneck-free $`(q,r)`$-descendants are called *final* $`(q,r)`$-*descendants*. Among final $`(q,r)`$-descendants, the one enclosing maximal area is called the *maximal* $`(q,r)`$-*descendant* of $`\gamma `$ and denoted $`\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\gamma }`$. The set of all $`(\kappa _\tau r/3)`$-large final $`(q,r)`$-descendants of $`\gamma `$ is denoted $`𝔉_{(q,r)}(\gamma )`$; the non-maximal among these form the set $`𝔉_{(q,r)}^{}(\gamma )=𝔉_{(q,r)}(\gamma )\backslash \{\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\gamma }\}`$. Note that since $`\gamma `$ is exterior, so is each offspring of $`\gamma `$.

It is useful to note the following general fact about norms on $`^2`$, which can be verified by a simple geometric argument. Let $`C`$ be a convex set; then

(5.4)
$$𝒲(C)6\mathrm{diam}_\tau (C).$$

Define

$$u(c,A)=\mathrm{max}(w_1A^{1/2}cA^{1/6},0)$$

and

$$D_{(q,r)}(\gamma )=\underset{\alpha 𝔉_{(q,r)}(\gamma )}{}\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\alpha ),D_{(q,r)}^{}(\gamma )=\underset{\alpha 𝔉_{(q,r)}^{}(\gamma )}{}\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\alpha ).$$

The following lemma is related to (5.4).

###### Lemma 5.2.

Let $`\gamma `$ be a circuit, let $`A=|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|`$, and let $`q1,r15q`$. Then

(5.5)
$$D_{(q,r)}(\gamma )\frac{1}{6}w_1\sqrt{A}.$$

###### Proof.

We may assume $`\gamma `$ contains a clean $`(q,r)`$-bottleneck $`(u,v)`$, for otherwise (5.5) is immediate from (5.4). We have

$$q+2\sqrt{2}\frac{1}{4}r.$$

Let $`S`$ denote the union of $`Q_2(u,v)`$ and all ($`\kappa _\tau r/3`$)-small offspring of $`\gamma `$, and let

$$R=\{z^2:d_\tau (z,Q_2(u,v))\kappa _\tau r/3\}.$$

Then

$$SR,\mathrm{diam}(R)q+2\sqrt{2}+\frac{2\sqrt{2}r}{3}$$

and

(5.6)
$$|R|\left|\{z^2:d(z,Q_2(u,v))\frac{\sqrt{2}r}{3}\}\right|\pi \left(\frac{q+2\sqrt{2}+\frac{2\sqrt{2}r}{3}}{2}\right)^2r^2.$$

Note that the set $`\{\alpha _1,\alpha _2,\mathrm{}\}`$ of ($`\kappa _\tau r/3`$)-large offspring of $`\gamma `$ can be divided into two disjoint classes: *right offspring*, which intersect $`\gamma ^{[u,v]}`$, and *left offspring*, which intersect $`\gamma ^{[v,u]}`$. Also, every point of $`\gamma `$ is either in a left offspring, in a right offspring, or in $`S`$. The diameter of $`Q_2(u,v)`$ is at most $`q+2\sqrt{2}r/6`$, while the diameters of $`\gamma ^{[u,v]}`$ and $`\gamma ^{[v,u]}`$ are at least $`r`$, so the right and left classes each include at least one ($`5\kappa _\tau r/6\sqrt{2}`$)-large offspring,. Further, if

(5.7)
$$D_{(q,r)}(\gamma )\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\gamma )$$

then (5.5) follows from (5.4). Let $`w`$ and $`x`$ be sites of $`\gamma `$ with $`d_\tau (w,x)=\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\gamma )`$. At least one of these points is not in $`Q_2(u,v)`$, so we may assume $`w`$ is in some $`\alpha _i`$. There are now four possibilities. First, if also $`x\alpha _i`$, then (5.7) holds. Second, if instead $`xS`$, then there exists a ($`5\kappa _\tau r/6\sqrt{2}`$)-large offspring $`\alpha _j\alpha _i`$, and we have

$`D_{(q,r)}(\gamma )`$ $`\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\alpha _i)+\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\alpha _j)`$
$`\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\gamma )\sqrt{2}\kappa _\tau (q+2\sqrt{2}){\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3}}+{\displaystyle \frac{5\kappa _\tau r}{6\sqrt{2}}}`$
$`\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\gamma )`$
and again (5.7) holds. Third, suppose $`x\alpha _k`$ for some $`ki`$ and there exists a third ($`\kappa _\tau r/3`$)-large offspring $`\alpha _l`$ with $`li,k`$. Let $`d_m=\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\alpha _m)`$. Then

$$d_i+d_k\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\gamma )\sqrt{2}\kappa _\tau (q+2\sqrt{2})\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\gamma )d_l$$

so once more, (5.7) holds.

The fourth possibility is that $`x\alpha _k`$ for some $`ki`$ and $`\alpha _i,\alpha _k`$ are the only ($`\kappa _\tau r/3`$)-large offspring; each is necessarily actually ($`5\kappa _\tau r/6\sqrt{2}`$)-large. From (5.4) we have

$$A|R|+|\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _i)|+|\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _k)|r^2+\frac{36}{w_1^2}(d_i^2+d_k^2).$$

Using this and the fact that $`w_14\kappa _\tau `$ (since the unit square encloses unit area) we obtain

$$\frac{w_1^2}{36}A\frac{4}{9}\kappa _\tau ^2r^2+d_i^2+d_k^22d_id_k+d_i^2+d_k^2.$$

Taking square roots yields (5.5). ∎

For $`k0`$ define the events

$`M_y(k,q,r,A,A^{},d^{},t)=[|𝔉_{(q,r)}^{}`$ $`(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|=k][|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|=A][|\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0})|=A^{}]`$
$`[D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)[d^{},d^{}+1)][𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0}))t].`$
We first consider $`k=0`$, which means $`\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\gamma }=\gamma `$ and $`D_{(q,r)}(\gamma )=0`$; larger values will be handled later by induction.

###### Proposition 5.3.

Assume (2.7) and either (i) the ratio weak mixing property or (ii) both the weak mixing property and the near-Markov property for open circuits. Then there exist constants $`ϵ_i,K_i`$ as follows. Let $`A1,t_+0,t=w_1\sqrt{A}+t_+2`$, and $`ϵ_{16}t>r>15q>K_{34}\mathrm{log}t`$. Then

(5.8)
$$P(M_0(0,q,r,A,A,0,t))e^{u(K_{35}r^{2/3},A)\frac{1}{2}t_+}.$$

###### Proof.

From the definition of $`w_1`$ we may assume $`t_+0`$. It follows easily from (2.9) that for some $`K_{36},K_{37}`$,

(5.9)
$$P(\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)t)K_{36}t^4e^te^{u(K_{37}r^{2/3},A)t_+}$$

so by (5.4) it suffices to consider

$$M_0^{}(q,r,A,t)=M_0(0,q,r,A,A,0,t)[t/6\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)t].$$

Suppose $`\omega M_0^{}(q,r,A,t)`$. Fix $`\alpha >0`$ to be specified, let $`s=\alpha t^{2/3}r^{1/3}`$ and suppose $`\mathrm{HSkel}_s(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)=(y_0,..,y_{m+1})`$. By (3.1),

(5.10)
$$mK_{38}\alpha ^1t^{1/3}r^{1/3}.$$

Let $`B_i=B(y_i,4r)(^2)^{}`$. Let $`I=\{im:|y_{i+1}y_i|>8r\}`$. For each $`iI`$ there is a segment $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[w_i,x_i]}\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_i,y_{i+1}]}`$ entirely outside $`B_iB_{i+1}`$, with $`w_iB_i`$ and $`x_iB_{i+1}`$. We next show that

(5.11)
$$d(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[w_i,x_i]},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[w_j,x_j]})>q/2\text{for all }ij\text{ in }I.$$

If not, there exist $`u\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[w_i,x_i]}`$, $`v\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[w_j,x_j]}`$ and a dual path $`\psi `$ from $`u`$ to $`v`$ in $`\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)`$ with $`|\psi |q`$. Let $`a`$ be the last site of $`\psi `$ in $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_i,y_{i+1}]}`$, and $`b`$ the first site of $`\psi `$ after $`a`$ which is in some segment $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_k,y_{k+1}]}`$ with $`ki`$. Since all sites $`y_l`$ are extreme points, we must have $`\psi ^{(a,b)}\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)`$. We claim that $`(a,b)`$ is a $`(q,3r)`$-bottleneck. By Lemma 5.1 this is a contradiction, so our claim will establish (5.11). Suppose $`i<k`$; the proof if $`i>k`$ is similar. We have $`\psi B(u,q)`$ and $`uB_{i+1}`$ so $`\psi B(y_{i+1},3r+1)=\varphi `$. Therefore $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[a,b]}`$ contains a segment in $`\overline{}(B_{i+1})`$ which includes $`y_{i+1}`$ and has diameter at least $`3r`$. Similarly since $`vB_i,\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[b,a]}`$ contains a segment in $`(B_i)`$ which includes $`y_i`$ and has diameter at least $`3r`$. This proves the claim and thus (5.11).

From (3.6) and (5.10) we have

(5.12) $`{\displaystyle \underset{iI}{}}\tau (x_iw_i)`$ $`𝒲(\mathrm{HPath}_s(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0))K_{39}mr`$
$`𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0))K_{40}\alpha ^2t^{1/3}r^{2/3}K_{39}mr`$
$`tK_{41}(\alpha ^2+\alpha ^1)t^{1/3}r^{2/3}.`$
Equation (5.12) shows that it is optimal to take $`\alpha `$ of order 1 in our choice of $`s`$, so we now set $`\alpha =1`$.

For $`w_i(B_i^2)`$ and $`x_i(B_{i+1}^2)`$ for each $`im`$, let $`A(w_0,x_0,..,w_m,x_m)`$ be the event that for each $`iI`$ there is an open dual path $`\alpha _i`$ from $`w_i`$ to $`x_i`$ in $`B_\tau (w_i,t)`$, with $`d(\alpha _i,\alpha _j)>q/2`$ for all $`ij`$. Then we have shown

(5.13) $`P`$ $`(M_0^{}(q,r,A,t))[\mathrm{HSkel}_s(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)=(y_0,..,y_{m+1})])`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{w_0}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{x_0}{}}\mathrm{}{\displaystyle \underset{w_m}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{x_m}{}}P(A(w_0,x_0,..,w_m,x_m))`$
$`(K_{42}r^2)^{m+1}\underset{w_0,x_0,..,w_m,x_m}{\mathrm{max}}P(A(w_0,x_0,..,w_m,x_m)).`$
Provided $`K_{34}`$ is sufficiently large, Lemma 3.2, (5.12) and induction give

(5.14) $`P(A(w_0,x_0,..,w_m,x_m))`$ $`2^m{\displaystyle \underset{iI}{}}P(w_ix_i)`$
$`2^me^{t+2K_{41}t^{1/3}r^{2/3}}`$
which with (5.10) and (5.13) yields

(5.15) $`P`$ $`(M_0^{}(q,r,A,t)[\mathrm{HSkel}_s(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)=(y_0,..,y_{m+1})])`$
$`e^{t+K_{43}t^{1/3}r^{2/3}}.`$
The number of possible $`(y_0,..,y_{m+1})`$ in (5.15) is at most $`(K_{44}t^2)^{m+1}`$, which with (5.15) yields

(5.16)
$$P(M_0^{}(q,r,A,t)e^{t+K_{45}t^{1/3}r^{2/3}}$$

provided $`K_{34}`$, and hence $`r`$, is large enough. It is easily verified that, provided $`ϵ_{16}`$ is small enough,

$$K_{45}(t_++w_1A^{1/2})^{1/3}r^{2/3}2K_{45}(w_1A^{1/2})^{1/3}r^{2/3}+\frac{1}{2}t_+,$$

by considering two cases according to which of $`t_+`$ and $`w_1A^{1/2}`$ is larger. This and (5.16) establish (5.8) for $`M_0^{}`$; as we have noted, this and (2.9) establish (5.8) as given. ∎

###### Remark 5.4.

Let $`I`$ be any increasing event. Since the event on the left side of (5.14) is decreasing, its probability is not increased by conditioning on $`I`$. It follows easily that Proposition 5.3 remains true if the probability on the left side of (5.8) is conditioned on $`I`$, even though $`M_0(0,q,r,A,A,0,t)`$ is not itself a decreasing event.

Under (2.7), open dual bonds do not percolate, so for every bounded set $`A`$ there is a.s. an innermost open circuit surrounding $`A`$; we denote this circuit by $`\mathrm{\Theta }(A)`$.

An *enclosure event* is an event of form

$$_{in}(\mathrm{Open}(\alpha _i)[\alpha _i\mathrm{}])$$

where $`\alpha _1,..,\alpha _n`$ are circuits (of regular bonds.) This includes the degenerate case of the full space $`\{0,1\}^{(^2)}`$. Clearly any such event is increasing.

###### Proposition 5.5.

Assume (2.7), the weak mixing property and the near-Markov property for open circuits. There exist constants $`K_i,ϵ_i`$ as follows. Let $`AA^{}3,k0,t_+0,t=w_1\sqrt{A^{}}+t_+,d^{}0,`$ and $`ϵ_{17}(w_1\sqrt{A}+d^{}+t_+)r15qK_{46}\mathrm{log}A`$. Then

(5.17)
$$P(M_0(k,q,r,A,A^{},d^{},t))\mathrm{exp}\left(u(K_{47}r^{2/3},A)\frac{1}{60}t_+\frac{1}{10}d^{}\right)$$

and

(5.18)
$$P(M_0(k,q,r,A,A^{},d^{},t))\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{1}{2}d^{}\right)P(M_0(0,q,r,A^{},A^{},0,t)).$$

###### Proof.

We will refer to the requirement $`ϵ_{17}(w_1\sqrt{A}+d^{}+t_+)r`$ as the *size condition*, and to all other assumptions of the Proposition collectively as the *basic assumptions*.

We first prove (5.17). We proceed by induction on $`k`$, using Proposition 5.3 for $`k=0`$. Fix $`q,r`$ and define

$$L_y(k,A,A^{},d,d^{},t)=M_y(k,q,r,A,A^{},d^{},t)[dD_{(q,r)}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)<d+1],$$

where

(5.19)
$$\frac{1}{6}w_1\sqrt{A}1dK_{48}A,d\frac{1}{6}t_+1.$$

If $`K_{48}`$ is large enough then, from Lemma 5.2 and the lattice nature of $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_y`$, $`L_y(k,A,A^{},`$ $`d,d^{},t)`$ is empty if any of the inequalities in (5.19) fails. Note that for some $`K_{49}`$,

$$M_y(k,q,r,A,A^{},d^{},t)[\mathrm{diam}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)K_{49}A].$$

Our induction hypothesis is that for some constants $`c_i`$, for all $`j<k`$, all $`A,A^{},t,d^{}`$ satisfying the basic assumptions, and all $`d`$ satisfying (5.19), for any enclosure event $`E`$, we have

(5.20)
$$P(L_0(j,A,A^{},d,d^{},t)E)\mathrm{exp}(\frac{9}{10}d+\frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}jr);$$

if the size condition is also satisfied, then in addition

(5.21) $`P(L_0`$ $`(j,A,A^{},d,d^{},t)E)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(u(K_{35}r^{2/3},A){\displaystyle \frac{1}{60}}t_+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}d^{}),`$
with $`K_{35}`$ from (5.8). We wish to verify these hypotheses for $`j=k`$.

For $`j=0`$ it suffices to consider $`d^{}=0`$ and (5.21) is Proposition 5.3 (together with Remark 5.4), while (5.20) follows easily from the first inequality in (5.9), if $`K_{46}`$ is large. Hence we may assume $`k1`$ and fix $`A,A^{},d,d^{}`$. Let $`\mathrm{\Psi }(u,v,\eta )`$ denote the event that $`L_0(k,A,A^{},d,d^{},t)`$ occurs with $`(u,v)`$ a primary $`(q,r)`$-bottleneck in $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ of type $`\eta `$, and let $`\mathrm{\Phi }(u,v,\eta )=\{Y_{uv\eta }(\omega ):\omega \mathrm{\Psi }(u,v,\eta )\}`$. Let $`E`$ be an enclosure event; it is easy to see that bottleneck surgery cannot destroy $`E`$, that is,

$$\mathrm{\Psi }(u,v,\eta )E\mathrm{\Phi }(u,v,\eta )E.$$

(This is the reason for considering only enclosure events, not general increasing events.) Since $`|Q_1(u,v)|+|J_\eta (u,v)|K_{48}q`$, we then have from the bounded energy property:

(5.22)
$$P(\mathrm{\Psi }(u,v,\eta )E)e^{K_{49}q}P(\mathrm{\Phi }(u,v,\eta )E).$$

Fix $`u,v,\eta `$ and for $`y_1,..,y_l^2`$ and $`l,m,A_i,k_i,d_i,d_i^{}0`$ in $``$, let

$$Z=Z(l,m,y_1,..,y_l,A_1,..,A_l,d_1,..,d_l,d_1^{},..,d_l^{},k_1,..,k_l)$$

denote the event that there exist disjoint exterior open dual circuits $`\alpha _1,..,\alpha _l`$ such that:

1. $`\alpha _i`$ surrounds $`y_i`$, $`|\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _i)|=A_i,\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\alpha _i)\kappa _\tau r/3,|𝔉_{(q,r)}^{}(\alpha _i)|=k_i,d_i`$ $`D_{(q,r)}(\alpha _i)`$ $`<d_i+1`$ and $`d_i^{}D_{(q,r)}^{}(\alpha _i)<d_i^{}+1`$ for all $`il`$;
2. letting $`\alpha _{\mathrm{main}}`$ denote the open dual circuit enclosing maximal area among all offspring of all $`\alpha _i`$, we have $`\alpha _{\mathrm{main}}`$ an offspring of $`\alpha _m`$ satisfying $`|\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _{\mathrm{main}})|=A^{}`$ and $`𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\alpha _{\mathrm{main}}))w_1\sqrt{A^{}}+t_+`$ ;
3. there is no open dual path connecting $`\alpha _i`$ to $`\alpha _n`$ for $`in`$.

We supress the parameters in $`Z`$ when confusion is unlikely. Then considering only $`(\kappa _\tau r/3)`$-large offspring we see that

(5.23)
$$\mathrm{\Phi }(u,v,\eta )Z(l,m,y_1,..,y_l,A_1,..,A_l,d_1,..,d_l,d_1^{},..,d_l^{},k_1,..,k_l)$$

where the union is over all parameters satisfying

$$2l\mathrm{min}(4q,k+1),ml,y_i(^2)^{}\text{ with }d(y_i,\zeta _{uv})2,A_i\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{6},$$

(5.24)
$$A_mA^{},AK_{33}r^2\underset{il}{}A_iA,\underset{il}{}k_i=k+1l,$$

(5.25)
$$\frac{1}{6}w_1\sqrt{A_i}1d_iK_{48}A_i,d_i^{}d_i,$$

(5.26)
$$d^{}ld_m^{}+\underset{im}{}d_id^{},dl\underset{il}{}d_id,$$

(5.27)
$$d_md_m^{}+1\frac{1}{6}(w_1\sqrt{A^{}}+t_+).$$

Here (5.27) and the first inequality in (5.25) follow from (ii) above and (5.4),and $`K_{33}`$ is from (5.3). Temporarily fix such a set of parameters and let $`\nu _1,..,\nu _l`$ be circuits with

$$\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\nu _i)\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3}\text{for all }i\text{, and }\mathrm{Int}(\nu _i)\mathrm{Int}(\nu _j)=\varphi \text{ for }ij.$$

Define events

$$\stackrel{~}{L}_i=_{3BA_i}L_{y_i}(k_i,A_i,B,d_i,d_i^{},w_1\sqrt{B}),im,$$

$$\stackrel{~}{L}_m=L_{y_m}(k_m,A_i,A^{},d_m,d_m^{},t),$$

$$T_i=[\mathrm{\Theta }(\mathrm{\Gamma }_{y_i})=\nu _i],Y_i=\stackrel{~}{L}_iT_i\text{for }im,T=_{il}T_i.$$

Then

(5.28)
$$ZT_{il}Y_i.$$

Note that as in (3.14),

(5.29)
$$Y_i=\mathrm{Open}(\nu _i)[\nu _i\mathrm{}]G_i\text{ for some }G_i𝒢_{(\mathrm{Int}(\nu _i))},\text{for every }im.$$

Define events

$$R=_{il1}\mathrm{Int}(\nu _i),F=_{il1}\mathrm{Ext}(\nu _i),$$

$$\stackrel{~}{G}=_{il1}G_i,H=_{il1}\mathrm{Open}(\nu _i),N=_{il1}[\nu _i\mathrm{}],$$

and let $`L_l`$ denote the event that $`\stackrel{~}{L}_l`$ occurs on $`(F)`$. Then

(5.30)
$$NEH=E_RE_FH\text{for some }E_R𝒢_{(R)},E_F𝒢_{(F)},$$

(5.31)
$$_{il1}Y_i=HN\stackrel{~}{G}$$

and

(5.32)
$$_{il}Y_iL_l.$$

The relation between area $`A_i`$ and diameter $`d_i`$ tells us roughly whether the circuit $`\alpha _i`$ (or its collection of descendants) is regular or irregular; we thereby subdivide the circuits into “large regular,” “small regular” and “irregular” categories as follows:

$$I_1=\{il:d_i<4w_1\sqrt{A_i},A_ic_1r^2\},$$

$$I_2=\{il:d_i<4w_1\sqrt{A_i},A_i<c_1r^2\},$$

$$I_3=\{il:d_i4w_1\sqrt{A_i}\}$$

where $`c_1=\mathrm{max}(1/ϵ_{17}^2,(3K_{35}/w_1)^3)`$ is chosen so that

(5.33)
$$u(K_{35}r^{2/3},A_i)\frac{2}{3}w_1\sqrt{A_i},iI_1.$$

Let

$$\mu _i=\mathrm{max}[u(K_{35}r^{2/3},A_i)+\frac{1}{10}d_i,\frac{9}{10}d_i\frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}k_ir],iI_1\backslash \{m\},$$

$$\mu _i=\frac{9}{10}d_i\frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}k_ir,iI_2I_3,$$

$$\mu _m=\mathrm{max}[u(K_{35}r^{2/3},A_m)+\frac{1}{60}t_++\frac{1}{10}d_m^{},\frac{9}{10}d_m\frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}k_mr]\text{if }mI_1$$

(cf. (5.20).) Now $`HE_F`$ is an enclosure event so by the induction hypotheses (5.20) and (5.21), summing over $`BA_l`$ gives

(5.34)
$$P(L_lHE_F)A_le^{\mu _l}.$$

(Note that the size condition can be used here for $`iI_1`$.) Since $`|\nu _i|ϵ_{18}r`$ for all $`i`$, from (2.5) and (2.6), provided $`K_{46}`$ is sufficiently large we get

(5.35)
$$P(L_lE_FH\stackrel{~}{G}E_R)(1+e^{ϵ_{18}r/2})P(L_lE_FH)$$

and

(5.36)
$$P(E_FH)(1+e^{ϵ_{18}r/2})P(E_FH\stackrel{~}{G}E_R).$$

Combining (5.29) – (5.36) we obtain

(5.37) $`P(`$ $`(_{il}Y_i)E)`$
$`P(L_l(_{il1}Y_i)E)P(T_lL_l(_{il1}Y_i)E)`$
$`=P(L_lH\stackrel{~}{G}E_RE_F)P(T_lL_l(_{il1}Y_i)E)`$
$`(1+e^{ϵ_{18}r/2})P(L_lE_FH)P(H\stackrel{~}{G}E_R)`$
$`P(T_lL_l(_{il1}Y_i)E)`$
$`=(1+e^{ϵ_{18}r/2})P(L_lE_FH)P(E_FH)P(H\stackrel{~}{G}E_R)`$
$`P(T_lL_l(_{il1}Y_i)E)`$
$`(1+e^{ϵ_{18}r/2})^2A_le^{\mu _l}P(E_FH\stackrel{~}{G}E_R)P(H\stackrel{~}{G}E_R)`$
$`P(T_lL_l(_{il1}Y_i)E)`$
$`=(1+e^{ϵ_{18}r/2})^2A_le^{\mu _l}P((_{il1}Y_i)E)P(T_lL_l(_{il1}Y_i)E).`$
Summing over $`\nu _l`$ (which appears via $`T_l`$), dividing by $`P(I)`$ and iterating this (taking $`H`$ and $`N`$ to be the full space and $`R=\varphi ,F=^2`$, at the last iteration step) we obtain using (5.28)

(5.38)
$$P(ZE)(1+e^{ϵ_{18}r/4})^{2l}\underset{il}{}A_ie^{\mu _i}2A^l\mathrm{exp}(\underset{il}{}\mu _i).$$

We now want to sum (5.38) over all parameters of $`Z`$ allowed in (5.23). We first view $`l`$ as fixed and allow the other parameters to vary. Note that the number of parameter choices is at most $`(K_{50}A)^{5l+1}`$, and the number of possible $`(u,v,\eta )`$ is at most $`(K_{50}A)^3`$, for some $`K_{50}`$. Suppose we can show that, under the basic assumptions,

(5.39)
$$\underset{il}{}\mu _i\frac{9}{10}d\frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}kr+\frac{\kappa _\tau }{100}(l1)r$$

and, if the size condition is also satisfied,

(5.40)
$$\underset{il}{}\mu _iu(K_{35}r^{2/3},A)+\frac{1}{10}d^{}+\frac{1}{60}t_++\frac{\kappa _\tau }{100}(l1)r.$$

Then from (5.23) and (5.38),

$$P(\mathrm{\Phi }(u,v,\eta )I)2(K_{50}A)^{5l+2}\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{9}{10}d+\frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}kr\frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}(l1)r\right),$$

and if the size condition is satisfied,

$`P(\mathrm{\Phi }(u,v,\eta )I)(K_{50}A)^{5l+2}\mathrm{exp}(\mathrm{max}[u(K_{35}r^{2/3},`$ $`A)+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}d^{}+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{60}}t_+,`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{9}{10}}d{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}}kr]{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau }{100}}(l1)r).`$
Thus, summing over $`u,v,\eta `$, then over $`l`$, and using $`r>K_{46}\mathrm{log}A`$ and (5.22), we obtain (5.20) and (5.21) for $`j=k`$.

Now (5.39) is a direct consequence of (5.24) and (5.26), so we turn to (5.40) and assume that the size condition holds. Let

$$\delta _i=\{\begin{array}{cc}\frac{1}{10}d_i,\hfill & im\hfill \\ \frac{1}{10}d_m^{}+\frac{1}{60}t_+,\hfill & i=m\hfill \end{array}$$

and set $`\beta _1=\beta _3=1/2,\beta _2=1/10`$. We claim that

(5.41)
$$\mu _i\beta _jw_1\sqrt{A_i}+\delta _i+\frac{1}{10}d_i1\text{for every }iI_j,j=1,2,3.$$

Observe that

(5.42)
$$d_i(k_i+1)\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3}1(k_i+1)\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{4},d_i^{}k_i\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3}1k_i\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{4}$$

and hence

(5.43)
$$\mu _i\frac{4}{5}d_i,il.$$

This yields

(5.44)
$$\mu _i\frac{4}{5}d_iw_1\sqrt{A_i}+\frac{11}{20}d_i,iI_3,$$

which proves (5.41) for $`iI_3\backslash \{m\}`$. For $`iI_1`$ we can use (5.33), (5.42) and a convex combination of the lower bounds (5.43) and $`u(K_{35}r^{2/3},A_i)`$ for $`\mu _i`$ to obtain

(5.45)
$$\mu _i\frac{3}{4}u(K_{35}r^{2/3},A_i)+\frac{1}{5}d_i\frac{1}{2}w_1\sqrt{A_i}+\frac{1}{5}d_i,iI_1,$$

which proves (5.41) for $`iI_1\backslash \{m\}`$. From (5.25),

$$d_i\frac{1}{8}w_1\sqrt{A_i}+\frac{1}{4}d_i\frac{3}{4},il,$$

and hence by (5.43)

(5.46)
$$\mu _i\frac{4}{5}d_i\frac{1}{10}w_1\sqrt{A_i}+\frac{1}{5}d_i\frac{3}{5},il,$$

which proves (5.41) for $`iI_2\backslash \{m\}`$.

We need slightly different estimates for $`i=m`$. If $`mI_3`$ then using (5.44) and (5.27) we obtain

(5.47) $`\mu _m`$ $`w_1\sqrt{A_m}+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}d_m`$
$`w_1\sqrt{A_m}+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{4}}d_m+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{4}}(d_m^{}1)+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{24}}t_+,`$
which proves (5.41) for $`i=m`$. If $`mI_1`$ then by (5.45) and (5.27),

(5.48) $`\mu _m`$ $`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}w_1\sqrt{A_m}+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{5}}d_m`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}w_1\sqrt{A_m}+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}d_m+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}(d_m^{}1)+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{60}}t_+,`$
which again proves (5.41) for $`i=m`$. Finally if $`mI_2`$ then by (5.46), (5.48) remains valid with $`1/10`$ in place of $`1/2`$, and 3/5 subtracted from the right side, once again proving (5.41) for $`i=m`$. Thus (5.41) holds in all cases.

The next step is to sum (5.41) over $`i`$. There are 2 cases.

*Case 1*. $`d20w_1\sqrt{A}`$. Then using (5.41), (5.26) and (5.42),

(5.49) $`{\displaystyle \underset{il}{}}\mu _i`$ $`{\displaystyle \underset{il}{}}(\delta _i+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}d_i+1)`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}(d^{}l)+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{60}}t_++{\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}(dl)+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}{\displaystyle \underset{il}{}}d_i+l`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}d^{}+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{60}}t_++w_1\sqrt{A}+{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau }{80}}lr`$
which proves (5.40).

*Case 2*. $`d<20w_1\sqrt{A}`$. By (5.26), (5.27) and (5.42),

$$6d^{}+t_+6(d+l+1)7d140w_1\sqrt{A}.$$

This and the size condition imply

$$r<141ϵ_{17}w_1\sqrt{A}\frac{\kappa _\tau \sqrt{A}}{80K_{33}w_1}$$

if $`ϵ_{17}`$ is small enough, with $`K_{33}`$ as in (5.3), and then

(5.50)
$$\sqrt{AK_{33}r^2}\sqrt{A}\left(1\frac{K_{33}r^2}{A}\right)\sqrt{A}\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{80w_1}.$$

Let

$$S_j=\underset{iI_j}{}A_i,j=1,2,3,\text{and}S=S_1+S_2+S_3.$$

Provided $`ϵ_{17}`$ is small enough, we have by (5.3) and (5.50)

(5.51)
$$w_1\sqrt{S}w_1\sqrt{A}\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{80}.$$

It is easily checked that

(5.52)
$$\sqrt{a+b}\sqrt{a}+\theta \sqrt{b}\text{for }0b4\theta ^2a.$$

Choose $`i_{13},i_2`$ satisfying

$$A_{i_{13}}=\underset{iI_1I_3}{\mathrm{max}}A_i,A_{i_2}=\underset{iI_2}{\mathrm{max}}A_i.$$

(If $`I_1I_3`$ or $`I_2`$ is empty then the corresponding $`i_{13}`$ or $`i_2`$ is undefined.) We now consider two subcases.

*Case 2a*. $`I_2=\varphi `$ or $`A_{i_2}\frac{1}{25}(S_1+S_3)`$. From the definition of $`\mu _i`$ if $`i_{13}I_1`$, and from (5.41) if $`i_{13}I_3`$, we have

(5.53)
$$\mu _{i_{13}}w_1\sqrt{A_{i_{13}}}\lambda +\delta _{i_{13}},$$

where $`\lambda =\mathrm{min}(K_{35}r^{2/3}A_{i_{13}}^{1/6},w_1\sqrt{A_{i_{13}}})`$. Therefore by (5.52) with $`\theta =1/2`$,

(5.54)
$$\underset{iI_1I_3}{}\mu _iw_1\sqrt{S_1+S_3}\lambda +\underset{iI_1I_3}{}\delta _i+\underset{iI_1I_3,ii_{13}}{}\frac{1}{10}d_il.$$

Hence by (5.52) with $`\theta =1/25`$, and (5.51), (5.42), (5.54) and (5.41),

(5.55) $`{\displaystyle \underset{il}{}}\mu _i`$ $`w_1\sqrt{S}\lambda +{\displaystyle \underset{il}{}}\delta _i+{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}}(l1)rl`$
$`w_1\sqrt{A}{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau r}{80}}\lambda +{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}(d^{}l)+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{60}}t_++{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}}(l1)rl`$
$`u(K_{35}r^{2/3},A)+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}d^{}+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{60}}t_++{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau }{100}}(l1)r`$
which gives (5.40).

*Case 2b*. $`A_{i_2}>\frac{1}{25}(S_1+S_3)`$. Let us relabel $`(A_i,iJ_2)`$ as $`B_1..B_n`$. We have

$$S_1+S_325c_1r^2,$$

while from (5.3), provided $`ϵ_{17}`$ is small enough,

$$SAK_{33}r^232,525c_1r^2,$$

so

$$S_232,500c_1r^2325\underset{m=1}{\overset{100}{}}B_i,$$

which implies

$$\frac{1}{20}\left(\underset{m=101}{\overset{n}{}}B_m\right)^{1/2}\frac{9}{10}\left(\underset{m=1}{\overset{100}{}}B_m\right)^{1/2}.$$

Using this, and using (5.52) twice (with $`\theta =1`$ and with $`\theta =1/20`$), we get

(5.56) $`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}`$ $`{\displaystyle \underset{m=1}{\overset{n}{}}}\sqrt{B_i}`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}\left({\displaystyle \underset{m=1}{\overset{100}{}}}B_m\right)^{1/2}+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}{\displaystyle \underset{m=101}{\overset{n}{}}}\sqrt{B_i}`$
$`\left({\displaystyle \underset{m=1}{\overset{100}{}}}B_m\right)^{1/2}+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}{\displaystyle \underset{m=101}{\overset{n}{}}}\sqrt{B_i}+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}\left({\displaystyle \underset{m=101}{\overset{n}{}}}B_i\right)^{1/2}{\displaystyle \frac{9}{10}}\left({\displaystyle \underset{m=1}{\overset{100}{}}}B_m\right)^{1/2}`$
$`\sqrt{S_2}.`$
If $`I_1I_3\varphi `$ then (5.54) remains valid. This, with (5.41), (5.42) and (5.56), shows that, whether $`I_1I_3=\varphi `$ or not, (5.55) (with $`\lambda =0`$ if $`I_1I_3=\varphi `$) still holds.

The proof of (5.40), and thus of (5.21), is now complete. Taking $`y=0`$ and $`E`$ the full configuration space in (5.21), and summing over $`d`$ satisfying (5.19) shows that

(5.57)
$$P(M_0(k,q,r,A,A^{},d^{},t))K_{48}A\mathrm{exp}\left(u(K_{35}r^{2/3},A)\frac{1}{60}t_+\frac{1}{10}d^{}\right).$$

This proves (5.17), with $`K_{47}=2K_{35}`$.

It remains to prove (5.18). This is similar to the proof of (5.21), so we will only describe the changes. Again fix $`q,r`$. We make the same induction hypothesis, except that (5.21) is replaced by

(5.58)
$$P(L_0(j,A,A^{},d,d^{},t)E)\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{4}{5}d^{}\right)P(M_0(0,q,r,A^{},A^{},0,t)E),$$

and the requirement that the size condition be satisfied is removed. This hypothesis is true for $`j=0`$, where only $`d^{}=0`$ is relevant; hence we fix $`k1`$ and $`A,A^{},d,d^{}`$. Let

$$f(A^{},t)=\mathrm{log}P(M_0(0,q,r,A^{},A^{},0,t)E).$$

In place of $`\mu _i`$ we use

$$\widehat{\mu }_i=\frac{9}{10}d_i\frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}k_ir,im,$$

$$\widehat{\mu }_m=\mathrm{max}[\frac{4}{5}d_m^{}+f(A^{},t),\frac{9}{10}d_m\frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}k_ir].$$

In place of (5.39), (5.40) and their multi-case proofs, we have simply, using the first half of (5.42),

$$\underset{im}{}\left(\frac{1}{10}d_i\frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}k_ir\right)\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{40}(l1)l+\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{50}(l1)$$

and hence using (5.26)

$`{\displaystyle \underset{il}{}}\widehat{\mu }_i`$ $`f(A^{},t)+{\displaystyle \frac{4}{5}}(d^{}l)+{\displaystyle \underset{im}{}}\left({\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}d_i{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau }{40}}k_ir\right)`$
$`f(A^{},t)+{\displaystyle \frac{4}{5}}d^{}+{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau r}{50}}(l1).`$
This leads directly to (5.58), as in the proof of (5.21). In place of (5.57) we have

$$P(M_0(k,q,r,A,A^{},d^{},t))K_{48}A\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{4}{5}d^{}\right)P(M_0(0,q,r,A^{},A^{},0,t)).$$

For $`k1`$ we have $`d^{}\kappa _\tau r/3`$, so provided $`K_{46}`$ is large enough, this proves (5.18). ∎

###### Lemma 5.6.

Let $`q1,r15q`$, let $`\gamma `$ be a dual circuit and let $`\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\gamma }`$ be its maximal $`(q,r)`$-descendant. Then

$$𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\gamma ))𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\gamma }))+19D_{(q,r)}^{}(\gamma ).$$

###### Proof.

We may assume $`\gamma `$ has at least one bottleneck. If $`(u,v)`$ is a primary bottleneck in $`\gamma `$, and the $`(\kappa _\tau r/3)`$-large offspring of $`\gamma `$ are $`\alpha _1,..,\alpha _k`$, then

$$\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )B_\tau (u,\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3}+2\kappa _\tau q)_{ik}\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _i)$$

and therefore from (5.4), $`\gamma `$ can be surrounded by a (non-lattice) loop of $`\tau `$-length at most

$$12\left(\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3}+2\kappa _\tau q\right)+\underset{ik}{}𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\alpha _i)).$$

Since $`\mathrm{Co}(\gamma )`$ minimizes the $`\tau `$-length over all such loops, it follows that

$$𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\gamma ))6\kappa _\tau r+\underset{ik}{}𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\alpha _i)).$$

Iterating this, and using (5.4) and $`D_{(q,r)}^{}(\gamma )\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3}|𝔉_{(q,r)}^{}(\gamma )|`$, we obtain

$`𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\gamma ))`$ $`6\kappa _\tau r|𝔉_{(q,r)}^{}(\gamma )|+{\displaystyle \underset{\alpha 𝔉_{(q,r)}(\gamma )}{}}𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\alpha ))`$
$`𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\gamma }))+19D_{(q,r)}^{}(\gamma ).`$
The next theorem, together with Theorem 4.1, shows roughly that for a droplet of size $`A`$, there is a cost for the convex hull boundary $`\tau `$-length exceeding the minimum $`w_1\sqrt{A}`$ by an amount $`s_+`$, this cost being exponential in $`s_+`$, and there is an exponential cost for positive $`D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)`$.

###### Theorem 5.7.

Assume (2.7) and either (i) the ratio weak mixing property or (ii) both the weak mixing property and the near-Markov property for open circuits. There exist constants $`c_i`$ as follows. Let $`A>K_{51},s_+0,s=w_1\sqrt{A}+s_+`$ and $`d^{}0`$. Then

(5.59) $`P(|\mathrm{Int}(`$ $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A,𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0))s,D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)d^{})`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left(u(K_{52}(\mathrm{log}A)^{2/3},A){\displaystyle \frac{1}{1520}}s_+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}d^{}\right).`$
###### Proof.

Let $`K_{53}K_{46}`$ (of Proposition 5.5) and

$$q_B=\frac{1}{15}K_{53}\mathrm{log}B,r_B=K_{53}\mathrm{log}B,$$

$$t_+(n,A^{})=\mathrm{max}(s19nw_1\sqrt{A^{}},0),$$

$$I_1(n)=\{A^{}^+:t_+(n,A^{})\frac{s_+}{2}\},$$

$$I_2(n)=\{A^{}^+:t_+(n,A^{})<\frac{s_+}{2},w_1\sqrt{A^{}}w_1\sqrt{A}+19n\},$$

and

$$I_3(n)=\{A^{}^+:t_+(n,A^{})<\frac{s_+}{2},w_1\sqrt{A^{}}>w_1\sqrt{A}+19n\}.$$

Then using Lemma 5.6,

(5.60) $`P(`$ $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A,𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0))s,D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)d^{})`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{BA}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{nd^{}}{}}P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|=B,D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)[n,n+1),`$
$`𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0}))s19n)`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{BA}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{nd^{}}{}}[{\displaystyle \underset{A^{}B,A^{}I_1(n)}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{k0}{}}P\left(M_0(k,q_B,r_B,B,A^{},n,w_1\sqrt{A^{}}+t_+(n,A^{}))\right)`$
$`+{\displaystyle \underset{A^{}B,A^{}I_2(n)}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{k0}{}}P(M_0(k,q_B,r_B,B,A^{},n,w_1\sqrt{A^{}}))`$
$`+{\displaystyle \underset{A^{}B,A^{}I_3(n)}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{k0}{}}P(M_0(k,q_B,r_B,B,A^{},n,w_1\sqrt{A^{}}))].`$
The events $`M_0(k,q_B,r_B,B,A^{},n,)`$ are empty unless $`n+1>(k+1)\kappa _\tau r/4`$ (cf. (5.42)); if $`K_{53}`$, and hence $`r`$, is large enough, this implies $`kn`$, so we may restrict the sums in (5.60) to such $`k`$. Presuming $`A`$ is large enough, $`u(K_{47}(\mathrm{log}B)^{2/3},B)`$ is strictly positive for all $`BA`$. For $`A^{}I_1(n)`$ we apply Proposition 5.5 to get

(5.61) $`{\displaystyle \underset{A^{}B,A^{}I_1(n)}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{kn}{}}P(M_0(k,q_B,r_B,B,A^{},n,w_1\sqrt{A^{}}+t_+(n,A^{}))`$
$`(n+1)B\mathrm{exp}\left(w_1\sqrt{B}+K_{47}B^{1/6}(\mathrm{log}B)^{2/3}{\displaystyle \frac{s_+}{120}}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}n\right).`$
Note that if $`I_2(n)`$ or $`I_3(n)`$ is nonempty we must have $`s_+=sw_1\sqrt{A}>0`$. If $`A^{}I_2(n)`$ we have

$$\frac{1}{2}(sw_1\sqrt{A})>s19nw_1\sqrt{A^{}}sw_1\sqrt{A}38n$$

and hence $`ns_+/64`$. Therefore

(5.62) $`{\displaystyle \underset{A^{}B,A^{}I_2(n)}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{kn}{}}P(M_0(k,q_B,r_B,B,A^{},n,w_1\sqrt{A^{}}))`$
$`(n+1)B\mathrm{exp}\left(w_1\sqrt{B}+K_{47}B^{1/6}(\mathrm{log}B)^{2/3}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}n\right)`$
$`(n+1)B\mathrm{exp}\left(w_1\sqrt{B}+K_{47}B^{1/6}(\mathrm{log}B)^{2/3}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}n{\displaystyle \frac{1}{1520}}s_+\right).`$
If $`A^{}I_3(n)`$ we have

$$s_++w_1\sqrt{A}w_1\sqrt{A^{}}19nt_+(n,A^{})\frac{s_+}{2}$$

so that

$$2(w_1\sqrt{A^{}}w_1\sqrt{A})>w_1\sqrt{A^{}}w_1\sqrt{A}+19n\frac{s_+}{2}$$

which implies

$$w_1\sqrt{B}w_1\sqrt{A^{}}>w_1\sqrt{A}+\frac{s_+}{4}.$$

Therefore

(5.63) $`{\displaystyle \underset{A^{}B,A^{}I_3(n)}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{kn}{}}P(M_0(k,q_B,r_B,B,A^{},n,w_1\sqrt{A^{}}))`$
$`(n+1)B\mathrm{exp}\left(w_1\sqrt{B}+K_{47}B^{1/6}(\mathrm{log}B)^{2/3}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}n\right)`$
$`(n+1)B\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}w_1\sqrt{B}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}w_1\sqrt{A}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{8}}s_++K_{47}B^{1/6}(\mathrm{log}B)^{2/3}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{10}}n\right).`$
We can now use (5.61),(5.62) and (5.63) to sum over $`n`$ and $`B`$ in (5.60), obtaining (5.59). ∎

Part of our main result is an easy consequence of Theorem 5.7.

###### Proof of Theorem 2.1,(2.13) and (2.14).

From the definition of $`w_1`$ and Theorem 5.7, for any $`c`$, if $`A`$ is sufficiently large,

(5.64) $`P(`$ $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A,ALR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)>cl^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3})`$
$`P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A,|\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A+cw_1l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3})`$
$`P\left(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A,𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0))w_1\sqrt{A}+{\displaystyle \frac{cw_1^2l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}}{3}}\right)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(u(K_{52}(\mathrm{log}A)^{2/3},A)ϵ_{19}cl^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}).`$
If we take $`c`$ sufficiently large, this and Theorem 4.1 prove that (2.13) holds with conditional probability approaching 1 as $`A\mathrm{}`$.

Next, from the quadratic nature of the Wulff variational minimum (see , ), for any $`a,b`$, if $`A`$ is sufficiently large,

(5.65) $`P(A`$ $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A+aw_1l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3},\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0))>bl^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{B}{}}P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|=B,\mathrm{\Delta }_B(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0))>{\displaystyle \frac{b}{2}}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{B}{}}P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|=B,𝒲(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0))w_1\sqrt{A}+ϵ_{20}bl^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3})`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(u(K_{52}(\mathrm{log}A)^{2/3},A)ϵ_{21}bl^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}),`$
where the sums are over $`ABA+aw_1l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}`$. Now

$$P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|>A+aw_1l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3})$$

can be bounded as in (5.64), so if we take $`a,b`$ sufficiently large, (5.65) and Theorem 4.1 prove that (2.14) holds with conditional probability approaching 1 as $`A\mathrm{}`$. ∎

## 6. Proof of the Single Droplet Theorem

Let $`\mathrm{\Phi }_N`$ denote the open dual circuit in $`\mathrm{\Lambda }_N`$ enclosing maximal area. Let

$$T_N=\underset{\gamma _N}{}\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\gamma ),T_N^{}=\underset{\gamma _N\backslash \{\mathrm{\Phi }_N\}}{}\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\gamma ).$$

Let $`G_N(k,A,A^{},d,d^{})`$ denote the event that there are exactly $`k+1(K\mathrm{log}N)`$-large exterior open dual circuits in $`\mathrm{\Lambda }_N`$, with

$$\underset{\gamma _N}{}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|=A,|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Phi }_N)|=A^{},dT_N<d+1,d^{}T_N<d^{}+1.$$

As we will see, by mimicking the proof of (5.18) it is easy to obtain

(6.1) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(G_N(k,A,A^{},d^{},t))`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{4}{5}}d^{}\right)P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|=A^{}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2),`$
and then, summing as in Theorem 5.7, roughly

(6.2) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`({\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|A,T_N^{}d^{})`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}d^{}\right)P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|Av\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2).`$
with $`v\sqrt{A}`$. (Statement (6.2) is for motivation only—the actual statement we prove is (6.62).) Note that $`|_N|>1`$ implies $`T_N^{}K\mathrm{log}N`$; hence to prove (2.19) we would like a result somewhat like (6.2) but with $`A`$ on the right side in place of $`Av`$. To replace $`Av`$ with $`A`$ we need to know something of how the probability on the right side of (6.2) behaves as a function of $`v`$, which is obtainable from our next two results. For $`N>0`$ and $`0<A<B`$, we say that a lattice site $`y`$ is $`(\mathrm{\Lambda }_N,A,B)`$-*compatible* if there exists $`z`$ such that $`yz+\sqrt{A}𝒦_1`$ and $`z+\sqrt{B}𝒦_1\mathrm{\Lambda }_N`$.

###### Proposition 6.1.

Let $`P`$ be a percolation model on $`(^2)`$ satisfying (2.7), the near-Markov property for open circuits, and the ratio weak mixing property. There exist $`K_i,ϵ_i`$ such that for $`AK_{54}`$ and $`\delta K_{55}\mathrm{log}A`$ we have

(6.3)
$$P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A+\delta \sqrt{A})e^{ϵ_{22}\delta }P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A).$$

From this proposition we will obtain its analog for $`P_{N,w}`$, which is as follows.

###### Proposition 6.2.

Let $`P`$ be a percolation model on $`(^2)`$ satisfying (2.7), the near-Markov property for open circuits, and the ratio weak mixing property. There exist $`K_i,ϵ_i`$ such that for $`N1,K_{56}Ac_2N^2,K_{57}\mathrm{log}A<\delta ϵ_{23}\sqrt{A}`$ and $`y`$ $`(\mathrm{\Lambda }_N,A/2,(1+ϵ_{24})A)`$-compatible we have

(6.4)
$$P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A+\delta \sqrt{A})e^{ϵ_{25}\delta }P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A).$$

Here $`c_2`$ is from Theorem 2.3.

These propositions will require some preliminary results.

###### Lemma 6.3.

Suppose $`\tau `$ is positive. There exists $`ϵ_{26}`$ such that if $`q1,r15q,A>A^{}>0`$ and $`\gamma `$ is a dual circuit with $`|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|=A,|\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\gamma })|=A^{}`$ then

$$D_{(q,r)}^{}(\gamma )ϵ_{26}\sqrt{AA^{}}.$$

###### Proof.

Let $`\alpha _1,..,\alpha _k`$ be the non-maximal final $`(q,r)`$-descendants of $`\gamma `$, and $`A_i=|\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _i)|`$. Then

$$D_{(q,r)}^{}(\gamma )\underset{ik}{}\mathrm{max}(w_1\sqrt{A_i},\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3})\frac{1}{2}w_1\sqrt{\underset{ik}{}A_i}+\frac{1}{6}k\kappa _\tau r$$

while (cf. (5.6))

$$AA^{}kr^2+\underset{ik}{}A_i.$$

The lemma follows easily. ∎

###### Remark 6.4.

The proof of Proposition 5.5 shows that the bounds (5.17) and (5.18) are valid conditionally on any enclosure event $`E`$, with the following modification: on the right side of (5.18) one must replace $`P(M_0(\mathrm{}))`$ with $`sup_{y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2}P_{N,w}(M_y(\mathrm{})E)`$. Let $`E_N`$ denote the enclosure event $`\mathrm{Open}(\mathrm{\Lambda }_N)[\mathrm{\Lambda }_N\mathrm{}]`$. Assuming $`P`$ has the near-Markov property for open circuits, probabilities under $`P_{N,w}`$ and under $`P(E_N)`$ differ by a factor of at most $`1+Ce^{aN}`$ for some $`C,a`$. Therefore Proposition 5.5 is valid with (5.17) and (5.18) replaced by

(6.5)
$$P_{N,w}(M_y(k,q,r,A,A^{},d^{},t))\mathrm{exp}(u(K_{47}r^{2/3},A)\frac{1}{60}t_+\frac{1}{10}d^{})$$

and

(6.6)
$$P_{N,w}(M_y(k,q,r,A,A^{},d^{},t))\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{1}{2}d^{}\right)P_{N,w}(_{xB(y,K_{58}A)}M_x(0,q,r,A^{},A^{},0,t))$$

for all $`y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2`$, for some $`K_{58}`$. It follows easily from (6.5) that Theorem 5.7, and then (2.13) and (2.14) of Theorem 2.1, extend similarly. Further, because the constraint $`Ac_2N^2`$ in Theorem 2.3 and Proposition 6.1 allows the appropriate size of Wulff shape to fit inside $`\mathrm{\Lambda }_N`$, and weak mixing adequately eliminates boundary effects, Theorem 4.1 is also valid for $`P_{N,w}`$ when $`Ac_2N^2`$.

For $`x,y(^2)^{},r>0`$ and $`G^2`$, we say there is an *r-near dual connection* from $`x`$ to $`y`$ in $`G`$ if for some $`u,v(^2)^{}`$ with $`d(u,v)r`$, there are open dual paths from $`x`$ to $`u`$ and from $`y`$ to $`v`$ in $`G`$. Let $`N(x,y,r,G)`$ denote the event that such a connection exists. The following result is from .

###### Lemma 6.5.

Let $`P`$ be a percolation model on $`(^2)`$ satisfying (2.7) and the ratio weak mixing property. There exist $`K_i`$ such that if $`|x|>1`$ and $`rK_{59}\mathrm{log}|x|`$ then

$$P(N(0,x,r,^2))e^{\tau (x)+K_{60}r}.$$

The next lemma proves (2.15) in Theorem 2.1.

###### Lemma 6.6.

Let $`P`$ be a percolation model on $`(^2)`$ satisfying (2.7), the near-Markov property for open circuits, and the ratio weak mixing property. There exist $`ϵ_i,K_i`$ such that for $`A>K_{61},l=\sqrt{A}`$ and $`ϵ_{27}Ar15qK_{62}\mathrm{log}A`$, under the measure $`P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A)`$, with probability approaching 1 as $`A\mathrm{}`$ we have

(6.7)
$$MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}.$$

We may and henceforth do assume that $`K_{63}K_4`$ of Theorem 2.1.

###### Proof of Lemma 6.6.

The proof is partly a modification of that of Proposition 5.3, so we use the notation of that proof. The basic idea is that a large inward deviation of $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_k,y_{k+1}]}`$ from $`\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)`$ for some $`k`$ reduces the factor $`P(w_kx_k)`$ in (5.14).

First observe that the proof of (5.11) actually shows that

(6.8)
$$d(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_i,y_{i+1}]},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[w_j,x_j]})>q/2\text{for all }ij\text{ with }jI.$$

Let $`Z`$ be the site in $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ most distant from $`\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)`$. Let $`K_{64}>\sqrt{4\pi ^1w_1K_3}`$ be a constant to be specified, and suppose that $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ satisfies (2.13) and (2.14), but for some $`km`$ and some $`z`$ we have $`Z=z\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_k,y_{k+1}]}`$ and $`d(z,\mathrm{Co}(\{y_0,\mathrm{},y_{m+1}\}))>51K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}`$. By (3.5) we have $`z\mathrm{Co}(\{y_0,\mathrm{},y_{m+1}\})`$. Let $`R_k`$ denote the region bounded by $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_k,y_{k+1}]}`$ and by the segment of $`\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)`$ from $`y_k`$ to $`y_{k+1}`$. Let $`\mathrm{}_k`$ denote the line through $`y_k`$ and $`y_{k+1}`$. There exists a site $`z^{}\mathrm{}_k`$ with the following property: a line tangent to $`B_\tau (y_k,\tau (z^{}y_k))`$ at $`z^{}`$ passes through $`z`$. This $`z^{}`$ is a projection of $`z`$ onto $`\mathrm{}_k`$ and satisfies

(6.9)
$$\tau (y_kz)\tau (y_kz^{}),\tau (y_{k+1}z)\tau (y_{k+1}z^{}).$$

Let

$$D=B(z,K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}),E=B(z,2K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}),$$

$$D^{}=B(z^{},K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}),E^{}=B(z^{},13K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}),$$

$$F^{}=B(z^{},14K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}).$$

Write $`D_{},D_{}^{}`$, etc. for the intersection of $`D,D^{}`$, etc. with $`(^2)^{}`$. We have several cases.

*Case 1.* $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_k,y_{k+1}]}`$ contains a $`(K_{59}\mathrm{log}A)`$-near dual connection from $`y_k`$ to $`y_{k+1}`$ outside $`E`$. Here $`K_{59}`$ is from Lemma 6.5. Then this event and the event $`[z_{in}D_{}]`$ occur at separation $`K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}`$, so by Lemmas 3.1 and 6.5,

(6.10) $`P`$ $`([z_{in}D_{}]N(y_k,y_{k+1},K_{59}\mathrm{log}A,E^c))`$
$`2P(z_{in}E_{})P(N(y_k,y_{k+1},K_{59}\mathrm{log}A,E^c)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left(\tau (y_{k+1}y_k){\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}\right).`$
*Case 2.* $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_k,y_{k+1}]}`$ contains no $`(K_{59}\mathrm{log}A)`$-near connection from $`y_k`$ to $`y_{k+1}`$ outside $`E`$, and $`D^{}\mathrm{}_k\overline{y_ky_{k+1}}`$. In this case, if $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_k,y_{k+1}]}`$ did not intersect $`D^{}`$, then at least half of $`D^{}`$ would be contained in $`R_k`$. (This requires (3.5), which shows that we cannot have $`D^{}\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)`$.) Then from (2.13),

$$\frac{1}{2}\pi K_{64}^2l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}|R_k||\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|ALR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)2w_1K_3l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3},$$

contradicting the definition of $`K_{64}`$. Thus $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_k,y_{k+1}]}`$ must intersect $`D^{}`$.

Let $`h_1`$ be the first site of $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_k,v]}`$ in $`E_{}`$, and let $`h_2`$ be the last site of $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[v,y_{k+1}]}`$ in $`E_{}`$. Note that by the definition of Case 2, we have

$$d(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_k,h_1]},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[h_2,y_{k+1}]})>K_{59}\mathrm{log}A.$$

We have two subcases within Case 2.

*Case 2a*. $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_k,h_1]}`$ and $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[h_2,y_{k+1}]}`$ contain $`(K_{59}\mathrm{log}A)`$-near connections from $`y_k`$ to $`h_1`$ and from $`h_2`$ to $`y_{k+1}`$, respectively, both outside $`F^{}`$. Then these near-connections occur at separation $`K_{59}\mathrm{log}A`$ from each other and from the event $`[_{in}D_{}^{}E_{}^{}]`$, so by Lemmas 3.2 and 6.5, since $`\tau (h_2h_1)\kappa _\tau \sqrt{2}(4K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}+2)`$,

(6.11) $`P(`$ $`N(y_k,h_1,K_{59}\mathrm{log}A,(F^{})^c),N(h_2,y_{k+1},K_{59}\mathrm{log}A,(F^{})^c),\text{ and }[_{in}D_{}^{}E_{}^{}]`$
$`\text{ occur at mutual separation }K_{59}\mathrm{log}A\text{ for some }h_1,h_2E_{})`$
$`4{\displaystyle \underset{h_1,h_2E_{}}{}}P(N(y_k,h_1,K_{59}\mathrm{log}A,(F^{})^c)`$
$`P(N(h_2,y_{k+1},K_{59}\mathrm{log}A,(F^{})^c))P(_{in}D_{}^{}E_{}^{})`$
$`4|_{in}D_{}^{}||E_{}^{}|{\displaystyle \underset{h_1,h_2E_{}}{}}\mathrm{exp}(\tau (h_1y_k)\tau (y_{k+1}h_2)`$
$`6\sqrt{2}K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}+K_{65}\mathrm{log}A)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(\tau (y_{k+1}y_k)K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}).`$
(Here we have actually used a trivial extension of Lemma 3.2, since the near-connection events occur not necessarily on the dual cluster of a single $`x^{}`$ but rather on the union of two such clusters.)

*Case 2b*. $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_k,h_1]}`$ does not contain a $`(K_{59}\mathrm{log}A)`$-near connection from $`y_k`$ to $`h_1`$ outside $`F^{}`$. (The other alternative to Case 2a within Case 2, symmetric to this one, is that $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[h_2,y_{k+1}]}`$ does not contain a $`(K_{59}\mathrm{log}A)`$-near connection from $`h_2`$ to $`y_{k+1}`$ outside $`F^{}`$; the proof is similar.) In this case the events $`[y_kF_{}^{}`$ outside $`F^{}E],[F_{}^{}E_{}`$ outside $`F^{}E]`$ and $`[E_{}y_{k+1}`$ outside $`E]`$ occur at separation $`K_{59}\mathrm{log}A`$ from each other. Further, we have for $`f,gF_{}^{}`$, using (6.9),

(6.12) $`\tau (`$ $`fy_k)+\tau (y_{k+1}h_2)+\tau (h_1g)`$
$`\tau (z^{}y_k)+\tau (y_{k+1}z)\sqrt{2}\kappa _\tau (|z^{}f|+|zh_2|)`$
$`+{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau }{\sqrt{2}}}(|zz^{}||zh_1||z^{}g|)`$
$`\tau (z^{}y_k)+\tau (y_{k+1}z^{})+2K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}`$
$`\tau (y_{k+1}y_k)+2K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}.`$
Hence by Lemma 3.2,

(6.13) $`P(`$ $`[y_kF_{}^{}\text{ outside }F^{}E],[F_{}^{}E_{}\text{ outside }F^{}E]\text{ and}`$
$`[E_{}y_{k+1}\text{ outside }F^{}E]\text{ occur at mutual separation }K_{59}\mathrm{log}A)`$
$`4P(y_kF_{}^{})P(F_{}^{}E_{})P(E_{}y_{k+1})`$
$`4{\displaystyle \underset{h_1,h_2F_{}^{}}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{f,gE_{}}{}}\mathrm{exp}(\tau (fy_k)\tau (y_{k+1}h_2)\tau (h_1g))`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(\tau (y_{k+1}y_k)K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}).`$
*Case 3*. $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[y_k,y_{k+1}]}`$ contains no $`(K_{59}\mathrm{log}A)`$-near connection from $`y_k`$ to $`y_{k+1}`$ outside $`E`$, and $`D^{}\mathrm{}_k\overline{y_ky_{k+1}}`$. As in Case 2b there are two symmetric alternatives within this, and we need only consider one, so we assume $`d(z,y_{k+1})d(z,y_k)`$. Then the events $`[y_kE_{}]`$ and $`[E_{}y_{k+1}]`$ occur at separation $`K_{59}\mathrm{log}A`$ and we have

$$\tau (zy_k)\tau (z^{}y_k)\tau (y_{k+1}y_k)K_{64}\sqrt{2}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}.$$

Hence

(6.14) $`P(`$ $`[y_kE_{}]\text{ and }[E_{}y_{k+1}]\text{ occur at separation }K_{59}\mathrm{log}A)`$
$`2P(y_kE)P(Ey_{k+1})`$
$`2{\displaystyle \underset{h_1,h_2E}{}}\mathrm{exp}(\tau (h_1y_k)\tau (y_{k+1}h_2))`$
$`2\mathrm{exp}(\tau (zy_k)+\sqrt{2}\kappa _\tau |zh_1|){\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau }{\sqrt{2}}}(|y_{k+1}z||zh_2|)`$
$`2\mathrm{exp}(\tau (y_{k+1}y_k)30K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}).`$
Now let $`J(y_k,y_{k+1})`$ denote the event that there is an open dual path from $`y_k`$ to $`y_{k+1}`$ containing a site $`z`$ with $`d(z,\mathrm{}_k)51K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}`$. Combining the three cases we obtain

$$P(J(y_k,y_{k+1}))3\mathrm{exp}(\tau (y_{k+1}y_k)\frac{1}{2}K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}),$$

and then analogously to (5.14),

$$P(A(w_0,x_0,\mathrm{},w_m,x_m)J(y_k,y_{k+1}))2^mP(J(y_k,y_{k+1}))\underset{iI\backslash \{k\}}{}P(w_ix_i).$$

Analogously to (5.14) – (5.16), this leads to

(6.15) $`P(`$ $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A,MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)51K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0\text{ is }(q,r)\text{bottleneck-free})`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{3}}K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}).`$
We will need the following straightforward extension of (5.18), under the conditions of Proposition 5.5:

(6.16) $`P(M_0`$ $`(k,q,r,A,A^{},d^{},t)[MLR(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0})51K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}])`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}d^{}\right)P\left(M_0(0,q,r,A^{},A^{},0,t)[MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)51K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}]\right).`$
It is easy to see (cf. the proof of Lemma 5.6) that

(6.17)
$$MLR(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0})MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)3\kappa _\tau ^1D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0).$$

Let $`g(A)=(3ϵ_{26})^2K_{64}^2\kappa _\tau ^2l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}`$, with $`ϵ_{26}`$ from Lemma 6.3. From Theorem 5.7, Lemma 6.3, (6.15), (6.17) and (6.16),

(6.18) $`P`$ $`(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A,MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)52K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$
$`P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A,D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0){\displaystyle \frac{1}{3}}K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$
$`+P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A,MLR(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0})51K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},`$
$`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)||\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0})|<g(A))`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{60}}K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$
$`+{\displaystyle \underset{BQ}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{d^{}0}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{Bg(A)<A^{}B}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{kd^{}}{}}P(M_0(k,q,r,B,A^{},d^{},w_1\sqrt{A^{}})`$
$`[MLR(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0})51K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}])`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{60}}K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$
$`+{\displaystyle \underset{A^{}Ag(A)}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{A^{}B<A^{}+g(A)}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{d^{}0}{}}(d^{}+1)e^{d^{}/2}P(M_0(0,q,r,A^{},A^{},0,w_1\sqrt{A^{}})`$
$`[MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)51K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}])`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{60}}K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$
$`+10g(A)P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|Ag(A),\mathrm{\Gamma }_0\text{ is }(q,r)\text{bottleneck-free},`$
$`MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)51K_{64}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{70}}K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}).`$
Here the restriction to $`kd^{}`$ is permissible as in the proof of Theorem 5.7. Provided we take $`K_{64}`$ large enough, with Theorem 4.1 this completes the proof. ∎

###### Proof of Proposition 6.1.

Let $`l=\sqrt{A}`$ and $`r=15q=K_{46}\mathrm{log}A`$, where $`K_{46}`$ is from Proposition 5.5. Let $`\mathrm{Mid}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)`$ denote the Wulff shape of area $`\frac{3}{4}|\mathrm{\Gamma }_0|`$ centered at the center of mass of $`\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)`$. From translation invariance, Theorems 2.1 and 4.1, (2.17) and (6.18) we have (recalling $`K_{63}=52K_{64}`$)

$`P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A,D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0){\displaystyle \frac{1}{3}}K_{64}\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$
$`+P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A,\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)>2K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$
$`+P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A,\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)2K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},0\mathrm{Mid}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0))`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A).`$
With this fact, we can repeat the argument of (6.18), but excluding reference to $`MLR()`$, to obtain (using again $`g(A)=(3ϵ_{26})^2K_{64}^2\kappa _\tau ^2l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}`$)

(6.19) $`P(|`$ $`\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A)`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A)`$
$`+P(|\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0})|Ag(A),`$
$`\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0})2K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},0\mathrm{Mid}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0))`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A)`$
$`+10g(A)P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|Ag(A),\mathrm{\Gamma }_0\text{ is }(q,r)\text{bottleneck-free,}`$
$`\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)2K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},0\mathrm{Mid}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)),`$
so that

(6.20) $`P(|`$ $`\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A)`$
$`20g(A)P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|Ag(A),\mathrm{\Gamma }_0\text{ is }(q,r)\text{bottleneck-free,}`$
$`\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)2K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},0\mathrm{Mid}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)).`$
The idea now is to split $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ into two halves and approximate the probability on the right side of (6.20) by the product of the probabilities of the two halves. With this independence the two halves can in effect be pulled apart from one another to increase the area enclosed by $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ at only a small cost in increased boundary length. To accomplish this we first need some definitions. Let $`\rho `$ be a path from $`x_2=(a_2,b_2)`$ to $`x_1=(a_1,b_1)`$ in the slab $`S_{x_1x_2}=\{(x,y)^2:b_2yb_1\}`$. Let $`J_L(\rho )`$ and $`J_R(\rho )`$ denote the regions to the left and right, respectively, of $`\rho `$ in $`S_{x_1x_2}`$. The *right-side area* determined by $`\rho `$ is

$$\mu _R(\rho )=|J_R(\rho )\mathrm{\Lambda }_N||J_R(\overline{x_1x_2})\mathrm{\Lambda }_N|,$$

evaluated for $`N`$ large enough that $`\mathrm{\Lambda }_N`$ contains $`\rho `$. (Note that for such $`N`$, the right-side area does not vary with $`N`$. Also, in our definition the path $`\rho `$ must be oriented so that $`b_1b_2`$.) The *left-side area* $`\mu _L(\rho )`$ is defined similarly using the left side of $`\rho `$. Let $`X_1`$ and $`X_2`$ be the points of $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ of maximum and minimum second coordinate, respectively, using the leftmost if there is more than one. Then

$$|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|=\mu _L(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[X_2,X_1]})+\mu _R(\widehat{\mathrm{\Gamma }_0}^{[X_2,X_1]}),$$

where $`\widehat{\mathrm{\Gamma }_0}`$ is $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ traversed in the direction of negative orientation. Let

$$B_i=B(X_i,4r),i=1,2,$$

and let $`U_i,V_i`$ be the first and last lattice sites, respectively, of the segment of $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0B_i`$ containing $`X_i`$. Let $`W_1`$ be the first site in $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[U_1,X_1]}`$ for which

$$d(W_1,\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[X_1,U_2]})q,$$

and let $`Z_1`$ be the closest site to $`W_1`$ in $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[X_1,X_2]}`$. $`W_2`$ and $`Z_2`$ are defined similarly with subscripts 1 and 2 interchanged.

Suppose now that $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ is $`(q,r)`$-bottleneck-free and satisfies

(6.21)
$$\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)2K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}$$

for $`K_{63}`$ of Lemma 6.6. Then $`B_1`$ and $`B_2`$ are disjoint, and since

$$\mathrm{diam}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[U_1,X_1]})>r\text{and}\mathrm{diam}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[X_1,V_1]})>r,$$

the absense of bottlenecks implies

$$d(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[X_2,U_1]},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[X_1,U_2]})>q\text{and}d(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[V_2,X_1]},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[V_1,X_2]})>q.$$

It follows that $`W_iU_i,Z_i\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[X_i,V_i]}`$ ($`i=1,2`$) and

$$d(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[X_2,W_1]},\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[X_1,W_2]})>q1>\frac{q}{2}.$$

When $`\rho `$ and $`\sigma `$ are paths such that the endpoint of $`\rho `$ is the initial point of $`\sigma `$, we let $`(\rho ,\sigma )`$ denote the path obtained by concatenating $`\sigma `$ and $`\rho `$. Then

$$|\mu _L(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[X_2,X_1]})\mu _L((\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{[X_2,W_1]},\zeta _{W_1X_1}))||B_1|=16\pi r^2,$$

since the paths differ only inside $`B_1`$. Again we may interchange 1, 2 and $`L,R`$. Let $`K_{66}>0`$ and let $`D_x=B(x,K_{66}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$ for $`x^2`$. Presuming $`K_{66}`$ is large enough, (6.21) implies that

$$\mathrm{\Gamma }_y^{[X_1,X_2]}\backslash (D_{X_1}D_{X_2})J_L(\overline{X_1X_2}),\mathrm{\Gamma }_y^{[X_2,X_1]}\backslash (D_{X_1}D_{X_2})J_R(\overline{X_1X_2}).$$

Hence using Lemma 3.2,

(6.22) $`P`$ $`(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|Au,\mathrm{\Gamma }_0\text{ is }(q,r)\text{bottleneck-free,}`$
$`\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)2K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},0\mathrm{Mid}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0))`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{AuA_L+A_R2A}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{x_1,x_2B(y,\sqrt{A})}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{w_1,z_1B(x_1,4r)}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{w_2,z_2B(x_2,4r)}{}}`$
$`P(X_1=x_1,X_2=x_2,W_1=w_1,W_2=w_2,Z_1=z_1,Z_2=z_2`$
$`\text{ and there exist paths }\rho _R\text{ from }x_2\text{ to }w_1\text{ and }\rho _L\text{ from }w_2\text{ to }x_1`$
$`\text{ satisfying }\mu _L((\rho _R,\zeta _{w_1x_1}))A_R16\pi r^2,`$
$`\mu _R((\zeta _{x_2w_2},\rho _L))A_L16\pi r^2,d(\rho _L,\rho _R){\displaystyle \frac{q}{2}},z_1\rho _L,z_2\rho _R,`$
$`\rho _L\backslash (D_{x_1}D_{x_2})J_L(\overline{x_1x_2}),\rho _R\backslash (D_{x_1}D_{x_2})J_R(\overline{x_1x_2}),`$
$`0J_R((\zeta _{x_2w_2},\rho _L))J_L((\rho _R,\zeta _{w_1x_1}))\backslash (D_{x_1}D_{x_2}))`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{AuA_L+A_R2A}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{x_1,x_2B(y,\sqrt{A})}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{w_1,z_1B(x_1,4r)}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{w_2,z_2B(x_2,4r)}{}}`$
$`2P(x_2w_1\text{ via an open dual path }\rho _R`$
$`\text{ with }\mu _L((\rho _R,\zeta _{w_1x_1}))A_R16\pi r^2,z_2\rho _R,`$
$`\rho _R\backslash (D_{x_1}D_{x_2})J_R(\overline{x_1x_2}),`$
$`0J_L((\rho _R,\zeta _{w_1x_1}))\backslash (D_{x_1}D_{x_2}))`$
$`P(w_2x_1\text{ via an open dual path }\rho _L`$
$`\text{ with }\mu _R((\zeta _{x_2w_2},\rho _L))A_L16\pi r^2,z_1\rho _L,`$
$`\rho _L\backslash (D_{x_1}D_{x_2})J_L(\overline{x_1x_2}),`$
$`0J_R((\zeta _{x_2w_2},\rho _L))\backslash (D_{x_1}D_{x_2}))`$
Let us assume for convenience that $`\delta `$ is an integer (if not, the necessary modifications are simple), and let $`x_1^{},w_1^{},z_2^{}`$ and $`x_2^{}`$ be the lattice sites which are $`2\delta `$ units to the right of $`x_1,w_1,z_2`$ and $`x_2`$, respectively. We now “pull apart” the two halves of $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ by replacing each of these four sites by its right-shifted counterpart in the first probability on the right side of (6.22). Specifically, by the FKG property,

(6.23) $`P(`$ $`x_2^{}w_1^{}\text{ via an open dual path }\rho _R`$
$`\text{ with }\mu _L((\rho _R,\zeta _{w_1^{}x_1^{}}))A_R16\pi r^2,z_2^{}\rho _R,`$
$`\rho _R\backslash (D_{x_1^{}}D_{x_2^{}})J_R(\overline{x_1^{}x_2^{}}),`$
$`0J_L((\rho _R,\zeta _{w_1^{}x_1^{}}))\backslash (D_{x_1^{}}D_{x_2^{}}))`$
$`P(w_2x_1\text{ via an open dual path }\rho _L`$
$`\text{ with }\mu _R((\zeta _{x_2w_2},\rho _L))A_L16\pi r^2,z_1\rho _L,`$
$`\rho _L\backslash (D_{x_1}D_{x_2})J_L(\overline{x_1x_2}),`$
$`0J_R((\zeta _{x_2w_2},\rho _L))\backslash (D_{x_1}D_{x_2}))`$
$`P(\mathrm{Open}(\zeta _{z_1w_1^{}}))P(\mathrm{Open}(\zeta _{w_2z_2^{}}))`$
$`P(|\mathrm{\Gamma }_0|A_L+A_R+{\displaystyle \frac{3}{2}}\delta \sqrt{A}32\pi r^2|D_{x_1}||D_{x_2}||D_{x_1^{}}||D_{x_2^{}}|)`$
$`P(|\mathrm{\Gamma }_0|A+\delta \sqrt{A}).`$
From (6.20), (6.22), (6.23) and the bounded energy property we obtain

(6.24) $`P(`$ $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A)`$
$`K_{67}A^4r^4ue^{K_{68}\delta }P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A+\delta \sqrt{A})`$
$`e^{K_{69}\delta }P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A+\delta \sqrt{A}),`$
completing the proof. ∎

###### Proof of Propostion 6.2.

Let $`B=A+\delta \sqrt{A}`$. Since $`[|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A]`$ is a decreasing event, we have

(6.25)
$$P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A)P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A),$$

so it is enough to show

(6.26)
$$P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|B)e^{ϵ_{25}\delta }P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|B).$$

Let

$$r_i^+=\sqrt{B}+2K_{63}il^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}),r^{}=\sqrt{B}2K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}).$$

Fix $`y^2`$ and let $`z^2`$ with $`yz+r^{}𝒦_1`$ and $`z+\sqrt{(1+ϵ_{24})A}𝒦_1\mathrm{\Lambda }_N`$, where $`ϵ_{24}`$ is to be specified. Then $`\sqrt{A/2}<r^{}<r_5^+<\sqrt{B}`$ and

(6.27)
$$d(z+r_5^+𝒦_1,\mathrm{\Lambda }_N)\frac{1}{8}ϵ_{24}\sqrt{A},$$

provided $`ϵ_{23}`$ and $`ϵ_{24}`$ are small and $`A`$ is large enough.

Let $`\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^i`$ denote the outermost open dual circuit surrounding $`y`$ in $`z+r_i^+𝒦_1`$ and define the event

$`F_i=[|\mathrm{Int}(\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^i)|`$ $`B,d_H(\mathrm{Co}(\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^i),z+\sqrt{B}𝒦_1)K_4l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},`$
$`MLR(\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^i)K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}]`$
Note that $`F_i[\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^iz+r_1^+𝒦_1]`$. Let $`E_i`$ be the event that there exist $`uz+r_{i+1}^+𝒦_1,vz+r_i^+𝒦_1`$ for which $`d(u,v)\frac{1}{2}d(u,z+r_i^+𝒦_1)`$ and $`uv`$ via an open dual path outside $`z+r_i^+𝒦_1`$. Then for some $`ϵ_{28}`$,

(6.28)
$$P_{N,w}(E_i)P(E_i)\mathrm{exp}(ϵ_{28}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}),$$

$$F_5[\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^5z+r_1^+𝒦_1][\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^5=\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^3]$$

and

$$F_5[\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^5\mathrm{\Gamma }_y][\mathrm{\Gamma }_yz+r_5^+𝒦_1,\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^5z+r_1^+𝒦_1]E_4.$$

Here the last inclusion follows from the fact that if $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_yz+r_5^+𝒦_1`$ and $`\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^5z+r_1^+𝒦_1`$ then $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_y`$ must surround or intersect $`\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^5`$. The events $`E_4`$ and $`F_3`$ necessarily occur at separation $`2K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}`$, so by Lemma 3.1 we have

(6.29)
$$P_{N,w}(F_5[\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^5\mathrm{\Gamma }_y])P_{N,w}(E_4F_3)2P_{N,w}(E_4)P_{N,w}(F_3).$$

We want to replace $`P(F_3)`$ with $`P(F_5)`$ on the right side of (6.29). We have

(6.30)
$$F_3\backslash F_5F_3[\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^5z+r_3^+𝒦_1]F_3E_2.$$

Let $`\omega _1F_1`$ be a bond configuration on $`(z+r_1^+𝒦_1)`$. Conditionally on $`\omega _1`$, $`F_3`$ is an increasing event (since $`F_3`$ requires $`\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^3z+r_1^+𝒦_1`$, meaning $`\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^3`$ is part of $`\omega _1`$) and $`E_2`$ is a decreasing one, so using (6.28), (6.30) and Lemma 3.1 again,

(6.31) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(F_3\backslash F_5\omega _1)`$
$`P_{N,w}(F_3\omega _1)P_{N,w}(E_2\omega _1)`$
$`P_{N,w}(F_3\omega _1)P(E_2\omega _1)`$
$`2P_{N,w}(F_3\omega _1)P(E_2)`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}P_{N,w}(F_3\omega _1).`$
Therefore $`P_{N,w}(F_3)2P_{N,w}(F_5)`$. With (6.29), (6.28), (6.27) and Lemma 3.1 this shows that

(6.32) $`P(`$ $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|B,d_H(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y),z+\sqrt{B}𝒦_1)K_4l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},`$
$`MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$
$`P(F_5)`$
$`2P_{N,w}(F_5)`$
$`4P_{N,w}(F_5[\mathrm{\Gamma }_y=\stackrel{~}{\mathrm{\Gamma }}_y^5])`$
$`4P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|B,d_H(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y),z+\sqrt{B}𝒦_1)K_4l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},`$
$`MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}).`$
By Theorem 2.1, Lemma 6.6 and translation invariance, there exists a site $`y^{}`$ such that

(6.33) $`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2B}}`$ $`P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|B)`$
$`={\displaystyle \frac{1}{2B}}P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y^{})|B)`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{B}}P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y^{})|B,\mathrm{\Delta }_B(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y^{}))K_4l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},`$
$`MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y^{})K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$
$`P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y^{})|B,d_H(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y^{}),z+\sqrt{B}𝒦_1)K_4l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3},`$
$`MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y^{})K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}).`$
But the last event implies that $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_y^{}`$ surrounds $`z+r^{}𝒦_1`$, which contains $`y`$. Hence the last probability in (6.33) is bounded by the first probability in (6.32), so that

(6.34)
$$\frac{1}{2B}P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|B)4P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|B).$$

Since $`\delta K_{57}\mathrm{log}A`$, this completes the proof of (6.26). ∎

The next lemma includes the analog of Lemma 6.6 for $`P_{N,w}`$.

###### Lemma 6.7.

Let $`P`$ be a percolation model on $`(^2)`$ satisfying (2.7), the near-Markov property for open circuits, and the ratio weak mixing property. There exist $`ϵ_i,K_i`$ such that for $`N1,K_{70}(\mathrm{log}N)^2Ac_2N^2`$ (with $`c_2`$ from Theorem 2.3) and $`l=\sqrt{A}`$, we have

(6.35) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ and }MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)>K_{71}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(ϵ_{29}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2),`$
(6.36) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ and }\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)>K_{72}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(ϵ_{30}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2),`$
(6.37) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ and }ALR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)>K_{73}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(ϵ_{31}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3})P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2),`$
and for $`ϵ_{32}Ar15qK_{74}\mathrm{log}A`$ and $`\kappa _\tau r/3d^{}\sqrt{A}`$,

(6.38) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A,D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)>d^{}\text{ and}`$
$`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)||\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\mathrm{\Gamma }_y})|<ϵ_{33}d^{}\sqrt{A}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(ϵ_{34}d^{})P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2).`$
###### Proof.

We begin with (6.35). The proof of Lemma 6.6 is valid for $`P_{N,w}`$ through (6.18) (see Remark 6.4), which gives that for $`c`$ sufficiently large,

(6.39) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A,MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)52cl^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`|\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2|\mathrm{exp}\left(w_1\sqrt{A}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{80}}c\kappa _\tau l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}\right).`$
If $`l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}\mathrm{log}N`$, we can complete the proof as we did in Lemma 6.6. Thus suppose

(6.40)
$$l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}<\mathrm{log}N.$$

Since $`Ac_2N^2`$, provided we choose $`ϵ_{35}`$ small enough the set $`J_A=\{y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2:y\text{ is }(\mathrm{\Lambda }_N,A/2,(1+ϵ_{35})A)\text{compatible}\}`$ satisfies $`|J_A|ϵ_{36}N^2`$. Let $`E_y`$ denote the event that $`A|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|2A`$ and $`\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y))K_4l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}`$. Let $`F_y`$ denote the event that $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_y`$ is the unique exterior dual circuit in $`\mathrm{\Lambda }_N`$ satisfying both $`A|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_x)|2A`$ for some $`xJ_A`$ and $`\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_x))K_4l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}`$. From Theorem 2.1, Theorem 4.1 and Remark 6.4, we have for $`yJ_A`$

(6.41)
$$P_{N,w}(E_y^c|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A)\frac{1}{4}.$$

Also, from the near-Markov property for open circuits, the FKG property, and Theorem 5.7, provided $`K`$ is large,

(6.42) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(F_y^cE_y)`$
$`={\displaystyle \underset{\nu }{}}P_{N,w}(F_y^cE_y[\mathrm{\Theta }(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)=\nu ])P_{N,w}(\mathrm{\Theta }(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)=\nu E_y)`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{\nu }{}}2P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_x)|A\text{ for some }xJ_A\mathrm{Ext}(\nu ))P_{N,w}(\mathrm{\Theta }(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)=\nu E_y)`$
$`2P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_x)|A\text{ for some }xJ_A)`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{4}},`$
so by Theorem 4.1 and Remark 6.4, for $`yJ_A`$, using the $`(\mathrm{\Lambda }_N,A/2,(1+ϵ_{35})A)`$-compatibility of $`y`$,

$$P_{N,w}(F_y)\frac{1}{2}P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A)\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A}K_{76}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}).$$

Combining these facts we obtain

(6.43) $`2A`$ $`P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ for some }yJ_A)`$
$`2AP_{N,w}(_{yJ_A}F_y)`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{yJ_A}{}}P_{N,w}(F_y)`$
$`ϵ_{36}N^2\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A}K_{76}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}).`$
Here the second inequality uses the fact that $`F_y`$ can occur in each bond configuration for at most $`2A`$ sites $`yJ_A`$. With (6.40) and (6.39), provided we take $`c`$ large enough, (6.43) gives

$`\mathrm{exp}`$ $`(l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`|\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2|\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A}K_{77}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3})`$
$`P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A,MLR(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)52cl^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2),`$
which completes the proof of (6.35).

The proofs of (6.36) and (6.37) are essentially the same, except that for (6.36), in place of (6.39) we have the following. From Remark 6.4 and the proof of (2.14) of Theorem 2.1, for some $`K_{78}`$ and for $`c`$ sufficiently large:

(6.44) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A,\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{Co}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y))cl^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`|\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2|\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A}K_{78}c\kappa _\tau l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}).`$
With (2.17) and (6.35) this proves (6.36). The modification is similar for (6.37).

For (6.38) we must do more, because $`d^{}`$ may be much smaller than the order of the error term $`l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}`$ in Theorem 4.1. Let $`a=ϵ_{33}d^{}\sqrt{A}`$, with $`ϵ_{33}`$ still to be specified. From Theorem 5.7, Remark 6.4 and (6.43) we have

(6.45) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|2A,D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)d^{}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`|\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2|\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}d^{}u(K_{52}(\mathrm{log}2A)^{2/3},2A)\right)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}d^{}\right)P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2).`$
From Proposition 5.5 and Remark 6.4, similarly to (6.18) we have

(6.46) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(A|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|<2A,D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)>d^{}\text{ and}`$
$`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)||\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\mathrm{\Gamma }_y})|<a\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{AB<2A}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{nd^{}}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{Ba<A^{}B}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{kn}{}}P_{N,w}(M_y(k,q,r,B,A^{},n,w_1\sqrt{A^{}}))`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{AaA^{}<2A}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{A^{}B<A^{}+a}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{nd^{}}{}}`$
$`(n+1)e^{n/2}P_{N,w}(_{xB(y,K_{58}A)}M_x(0,q,r,A^{},A^{},0,w_1\sqrt{A^{}}))`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2}{}}K_{79}a(d^{}+1)e^{d^{}/2}`$
$`P_{N,w}(Aa|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_x)|<2A\text{ for some }xB(y,K_{58}A))`$
$`K_{80}a(d^{}+1)e^{d^{}/2}A^2{\displaystyle \underset{x\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2}{}}P_{N,w}(Aa|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_x)|<2A).`$
Let $`\stackrel{~}{F}_y`$ denote the event that $`Aa|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|<2A`$ and $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_y`$ is the unique exterior dual circuit in $`\mathrm{\Lambda }_N`$ satisfying $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|Aa`$. Similarly to (6.42) and (6.43) we have

(6.47) $`{\displaystyle \underset{x\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2}{}}P_{N,w}(Aa|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_x)|<2A)`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{x\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2}{}}2P_{N,w}(\stackrel{~}{F}_x)`$
$`4AP_{N,w}(Aa|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_x)|<2A\text{ for some }x\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2).`$
From (6.36) we have

(6.48) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_x)|Aa\text{ for some }x\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`2{\displaystyle \underset{x\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2}{}}P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_x)|Aa,\mathrm{\Delta }_A(\mathrm{\Gamma }_x)K_{72}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}).`$
But the last event, which says roughly that $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_x`$ approximates the appropriate Wulff shape, implies that $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_x`$ surrounds some $`(\mathrm{\Lambda }_N,(Aa)/2,(1+ϵ_{24})(Aa))`$-compatible site $`y`$. (Take $`y`$ to be the closest site to 0 in $`\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_x)`$.) Here $`ϵ_{24}`$ is from Proposition 6.2. Thus provided $`ϵ_{33}`$ is small, (6.48) and Proposition 6.2 give

(6.49) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_x)|Aa\text{ for some }x\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`2e^{ϵ_{25}ϵ_{33}d^{}}{\displaystyle \underset{x\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2(^2)^{}}{}}P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ for some }yB(x,\sqrt{A})J_{Aa})`$
$`2K_{81}Ae^{ϵ_{25}ϵ_{33}d^{}}{\displaystyle \underset{yJ_{Aa}}{}}P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A).`$
We can repeat the argument of (6.41) – (6.43) (excluding the last inequality of (6.43)) once more to get

(6.50)
$$\underset{yJ_{Aa}}{}P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A)4AP_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2).$$

Provided $`ϵ_{33}`$ is small, together, (6.45), (6.46), (6.47), (6.49) and (6.50) prove the lemma. ∎

###### Proof of Theorem 2.3.

We begin by obtaining an analog of (5.18), by mimicking its proof. We omit some details becuase of the similarity. First fix $`N`$ and let $`K_{82}`$ be a constant to be specified. Our induction hypothesis is that for every $`j<k,K_{82}A^{}A,dd^{}0`$ and enclosure event $`E`$, we have

(6.51) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(G_N(j,A,A^{},d,d^{})E)`$
$`e^{\frac{4}{5}d^{}}P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|=A^{}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2E)`$
and

(6.52)
$$P_{N,w}(G_N(j,A,A^{},d,d^{})E)\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{9}{10}d+\frac{1}{20}jK\mathrm{log}N\right)$$

and

(6.53)
$$P_{N,w}(G_N(j,A,A^{},d,d^{})E)\mathrm{exp}\left(u(K_{52}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3},A)\frac{1}{20}d^{}\right).$$

We need only consider parameters satisfying

(6.54)
$$d+1(j+1)K\mathrm{log}N,d^{}+1jK\mathrm{log}N,d^{}+1\frac{1}{6}w_1\sqrt{AA^{}},$$

the last inequality following from (5.7) and subadditivity of the square root. For $`j=0`$, we need only consider $`A=A^{},d^{}=0`$ and (6.51) is immediate from the definitions, while (6.52) follows easily from the first inequality in (5.9) and the fact that $`E`$ is increasing, and (6.53) follows from Theorem 5.7. Hence we may assume $`k1`$ and fix $`A,A^{},d,d^{},E`$.

Let $`\omega G_N(k,A,A^{},d,d^{})`$. There may be open dual paths $`\alpha `$ in $`\omega `$ each connecting $`\mathrm{\Phi }_N`$ to another open dual circuit $`\gamma _N`$. Since $`\mathrm{\Phi }_N`$ is exterior, for each such $`\gamma `$ there is a unique bond $`xy`$ with $`x\mathrm{\Phi }_N,y\mathrm{Ext}(\mathrm{\Phi }_N)`$ which is part of such an $`\alpha `$. We denote the set of all such bonds by $`𝒜_N`$. Thus $`|𝒜_N||_N|1`$. Let

$$\stackrel{~}{G}_N(k,A,A^{},d,d^{})=G_N(k,A,A^{},d,d^{})[𝒜_N=\varphi ].$$

When this event occurs, the only $`(K\mathrm{log}N)`$-large open dual circuit in $`\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Theta }(\mathrm{\Phi }_N))`$ is $`\mathrm{\Phi }_N`$. From the above and the bounded energy property we have

$$P_{N,w}(G_N(k,A,A^{},d,d^{})E)|(\mathrm{\Lambda }_N)|^kp_0^kP_{N,w}(\stackrel{~}{G}_N(k,A,A^{},d,d^{})E),$$

where $`p_0`$ is from (2.1). Given a circuit $`\nu \mathrm{\Lambda }_N`$ define the event

(6.55) $`F(\nu ,d_1)=`$ $`[|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|=A^{},d_1\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)<d_1+1,\mathrm{\Theta }(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)=\nu \text{ and}`$
$`\mathrm{\Gamma }_y\text{ is the only }(K\mathrm{log}N)\text{large open dual circuit in }\mathrm{Int}(\nu ),`$
$`\text{ for some }y\mathrm{Int}(\nu )].`$
Note that $`F(\nu ,d_1)𝒢_{(\mathrm{Int}(\nu )\nu )}`$. It follows easily from the near-Markov property and the first inequality in (5.9) that provided $`K`$ is large, given $`F(\nu ,d_1)E`$ with high probability there are no $`(K\mathrm{log}N)`$-large open dual circuits outside $`\nu `$; more precisely,

$$P_{N,w}\left(G_N(0,A^{},A^{},d_1,0)[\mathrm{\Theta }(\mathrm{\Phi }_N)=\nu ]EF(\nu ,d_1)\right)\frac{1}{2}.$$

Hence as in the proof of Proposition 5.5, conditioning on $`\mathrm{\Theta }(\mathrm{\Phi }_N)`$ and using the near-Markov property and (6.52) for $`j=k1`$ gives

(6.56) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(G_N(k,A,A^{},d,d^{})E)`$
$`|(\mathrm{\Lambda }_N)|^kp^kP_{N,w}(\stackrel{~}{G}_N(k,A,A^{},d,d^{})E)`$
$`K_{83}p^kN^{2k}{\displaystyle \underset{\nu }{}}P_{N,w}(\stackrel{~}{G}_N(k,A,A^{},d,d^{})[\mathrm{\Theta }(\mathrm{\Phi }_N)=\nu ]E)`$
$`2K_{83}p^kN^{2k}{\displaystyle \underset{d_1}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{\nu }{}}P_{N,w}(F(\nu ,d_1)E)`$
$`P_{N,w}(\stackrel{~}{G}_N(k,A,A^{},d,d^{})[\mathrm{\Theta }(\mathrm{\Phi }_N)=\nu ]EF(\nu ,d_1))`$
$`8K_{83}p^kN^{2k}{\displaystyle \underset{d_1,d_2^{}}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{0<A_1AA^{}}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{\nu }{}}`$
$`P_{N,w}(G_N(0,A^{},A^{},d_1,0)[\mathrm{\Theta }(\mathrm{\Phi }_N)=\nu ]E)`$
$`P_{N,w}(G_N(k1,AA^{},A_1,d^{},d_2^{})E\mathrm{Open}(\nu )[\nu \mathrm{}])`$
$`8K_{83}p^kN^{2k+6}{\displaystyle \underset{d_1}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{\nu }{}}P_{N,w}(G_N(0,A^{},A^{},d_1,0)[\mathrm{\Theta }(\mathrm{\Phi }_N)=\nu ]E)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{9}{10}}d^{}+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}(k1)K\mathrm{log}N\right)`$
$`8K_{83}p^kN^{2k+6}\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{9}{10}}d^{}+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}(k1)K\mathrm{log}N\right)`$
$`P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|=A^{},dd^{}1\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)`$
$`<dd^{}+1\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2E)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}({\displaystyle \frac{4}{5}}d^{})P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|=A^{},dd^{}1\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)`$
$`<dd^{}+1\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2E).`$
Here the sums include $`d_1\{dd^{}1,dd^{}\}`$ and $`0d_2^{}<d^{}`$. Now (6.56) establishes (6.51) for $`j=k`$; we next establish (6.52). We have by (2.9)

$`P_{N,w}`$ $`(dd^{}1\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)<dd^{}+1\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2E)`$
$`|\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2|^2e^{(dd^{}1)}.`$
Hence provided $`K`$ is large enough, the right side of the next-to-last inequality in (6.56) is bounded by

$$\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{9}{10}d+\frac{1}{20}kK\mathrm{log}N\right),$$

which proves (6.52) for $`j=k`$. Turning to (6.53), from (6.52), (6.53) for $`j=k1`$, and Theorem 2.1, the right side of the fourth inequality in (6.56) is bounded by

(6.57) $`8K_{84}p^kN^{2k+4}\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A^{}}+K_{52}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3}(A^{})^{1/6}))`$
$`\mathrm{exp}(\mathrm{max}[w_1\sqrt{AA^{}}K_{52}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3}(AA^{})^{1/6}),`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{9}{10}}d^{}{\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}(k1)K\mathrm{log}N]).`$
We now have two cases.

*Case 1*. $`A^{}\frac{1}{3}A`$. From (6.54) we have

$$d^{}\frac{1}{2}kK\mathrm{log}N+(K\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3}(\frac{1}{12}w_1\sqrt{A^{}})^{1/3}.$$

We can use this, (5.52) with $`\theta =1/\sqrt{2}`$, (6.53) with $`j=k1`$, and the fact that the maximum exceeds any convex combination to conclude that, provided $`K`$ is sufficiently large, (6.57) is bounded above by

(6.58) $`8K_{84}p^kN^{2k+4}\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A^{}}{\displaystyle \frac{3}{4}}w_1\sqrt{AA^{}}{\displaystyle \frac{9}{40}}d^{}+K_{52}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3}(A^{})^{1/6}`$
$`+{\displaystyle \frac{3}{4}}K_{52}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3}(AA^{})^{1/6}+{\displaystyle \frac{1}{80}}(k1)K\mathrm{log}N)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left(u(K_{52}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3},A){\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}d^{}\right).`$
*Case 2*. $`A^{}<\frac{1}{3}A`$. In this case it is easily checked that we must have $`k2`$ and $`d+13w_1\sqrt{A/3}`$ for $`G_N(k,A,A^{},d,d^{})`$ to be nonempty. But then

$$\frac{9}{10}d\frac{1}{20}kK\mathrm{log}N\frac{4}{5}(d+1)w_1\sqrt{A}+\frac{1}{20}d^{},$$

so (6.53) follows from (6.52).

The proof of (6.53) for $`j=k`$ is now complete. Summing (6.53) as in (5.60),

(6.59) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`({\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|A,T_N^{}d^{})`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{AB|\mathrm{\Lambda }_N|}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{d\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\mathrm{\Lambda }_N)}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{d^{}nd}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{A^{}B}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{kn}{}}P_{N,w}(G_N(k,B,A^{},d,n))`$
$`K_{85}N^4{\displaystyle \underset{BA}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{nd^{}}{}}\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}nu(K_{52}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3},B)\right)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}d^{}w_1\sqrt{A}+K_{86}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3}l^{1/3}\right).`$
If $`K_{87}`$ and $`K_7`$ are large enough, then (6.59), Theorem 4.1 and Remark 6.4 show that

(6.60) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`\left({\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|A,T_N^{}K_{87}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3}\right)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{1}{40}}K_{87}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3}\right)P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A)`$
and

$$P_{N,w}\left(\underset{\gamma _N}{}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|2A\right)e^{ϵ_{37}l}P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A).$$

Therefore

(6.61) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`\left({\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|A,|_N|>1\right)`$
$`P_{N,w}\left({\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|A,T_N^{}K\mathrm{log}N\right)`$
$`P_{N,w}\left({\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|A,T_N^{}K_{87}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3}\right)`$
$`+P_{N,w}\left({\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|2A\right)`$
$`+P_{N,w}(A{\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|<2A,K\mathrm{log}NT_N^{}<K_{87}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3})`$
$`2\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{1}{40}}K_{87}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3}\right)P_{N,w}\left({\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|A\right)`$
$`+P_{N,w}(A{\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|<2A,K\mathrm{log}NT_N^{}<K_{87}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3}).`$
To prove (2.19), then, we need to bound the last probability in (6.61). We will sum as in (6.59), but this time using (6.51) instead of (6.53). Let $`a=72w_1^2K_{87}^2l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{4/3}`$. By (6.54), we need only consider

$$A^{}B36w_1^2(d^{}+1)^2Ba.$$

Therefore using (6.52),

(6.62) $`P_{N,w}(A{\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|<2A,K\mathrm{log}NT_N^{}<K_{87}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3})`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{AB<2A}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{Ba<A^{}B}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{d\mathrm{diam}_\tau (\mathrm{\Lambda }_N)}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{d^{}K\mathrm{log}N}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{kd^{}}{}}P_{\mathrm{\Lambda }_N}(G_N(k,B,A^{},d,d^{}))`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{A^{}Aa}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{A^{}B<A^{}+a}{}}{\displaystyle \underset{d^{}K\mathrm{log}N}{}}`$
$`4\kappa _\tau N(d^{}+1)e^{\frac{4}{5}d^{}}P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|=A^{}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`e^{\frac{1}{2}K\mathrm{log}N}P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|Aa\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2).`$
By Lemma 6.7 and (2.17),

(6.63) $`P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|Aa\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`2P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|Aa,`$
$`\mathrm{\Delta }_{Aa}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)<K_{63}l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2).`$
With (6.62) and Proposition 6.2 (taking $`\delta =K_{57}\mathrm{log}A`$) this shows that, if $`K`$ is sufficiently large,

(6.64) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(A{\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|<2A,K\mathrm{log}NT_N^{}<K_{87}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}N)^{2/3})`$
$`2e^{\frac{1}{2}K\mathrm{log}N}P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y^{})|Aa\text{ for some}`$
$`(\mathrm{\Lambda }_N,(Aa)/2,(1+ϵ_{24})(Aa))\text{compatible }y^{})`$
$`2e^{\frac{1}{2}K\mathrm{log}N+ϵ_{25}\delta }{\displaystyle \underset{y^{}\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2}{}}P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y^{})|A)`$
$`e^{\frac{1}{4}K\mathrm{log}N}P_{N,w}\left({\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|A\right).`$
With (6.61) this proves (2.19). Then (2.19) and Lemma 6.7 prove (2.20)–(2.22).

It remains to establish (2.23). Let $`ϵ_{38}>0`$ to be specified, let $`n_0=\mathrm{min}\{n:2^n\kappa _\tau r/3>ϵ_{38}\sqrt{A}\}`$, and let $`b_n=ϵ_{26}^22^{2n}(\kappa _\tau r/3)^2`$. Then provided $`ϵ_{38}`$ is small enough, we have

$$b_n<ϵ_{33}2^{n1}\frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3}\sqrt{A}\text{for all }nn_0,$$

with $`ϵ_{33}`$ from Lemma 6.7. We have

(6.65) $`P_{N,w}`$ $`(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ and }\mathrm{\Gamma }_y\text{ is not }(q,r)\text{bottleneck-free for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ and }D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y){\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3}}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ and }D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)ϵ_{38}\sqrt{A}\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`+{\displaystyle \underset{n=1}{\overset{n_0}{}}}P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A,2^{n1}{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3}}D_{(q,r)}^{}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)<2^n{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3}},`$
$`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)||\mathrm{Int}(\alpha _{\mathrm{max},\mathrm{\Gamma }_y})|<b_n\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`|\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2|\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{1}{20}}ϵ_{38}\sqrt{A}u(K_{52}(\mathrm{log}A)^{2/3},A)\right)`$
$`+{\displaystyle \underset{n=1}{\overset{n_0}{}}}\mathrm{exp}\left(ϵ_{34}2^{n1}{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3}}\right)P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|A\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \frac{1}{40}}ϵ_{38}\sqrt{A}\right)P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A)`$
$`+K_{88}\mathrm{exp}\left(ϵ_{34}{\displaystyle \frac{\kappa _\tau r}{3}}\right)P_{N,w}(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_y)|>A\text{ for some }y\mathrm{\Lambda }_N^2),`$
$`K_{89}\mathrm{exp}(ϵ_{39}r)P_{N,w}\left({\displaystyle \underset{\gamma _N}{}}|\mathrm{Int}(\gamma )|>A\right).`$
Here the second inequality uses Lemma 6.3, the third inequality uses Theorem 5.7 and Lemma 6.7, and the fourth inequality follows from Theorem 4.1. With (2.19) this proves (2.23). ∎

###### Proof of Theorem 2.1, (2.15) and (2.16).

For (2.15) we need only observe that Lemma 6.7 is valid for $`P`$ in place of $`P_{N,w}`$ and only $`y=0`$ considered. After these same changes, (2.16) follows from (6.65) with the last inequality omitted. ∎

## 7. Conditioning on the Exact Area

In Theorems 2.12.3, one could as well consider conditioning on $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|=A`$ in place of $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A`$. It is straightforward to alter the existing proof to prove these theorems under this conditioning once one has a lower bound like Theorem 4.1 for $`P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|=A)`$. For this we need first some definitions and lemmas. In the interest of space we will not give full details in the proofs; these details involve many of the same technicalities we have encountered earlier. Consider distinct points $`x,y^2`$ with $`|yx|4\sqrt{2}`$. We let $`U(x,y)`$ denote the open slab between the tangent line to $`B_\tau (x,\tau (yx))`$ at $`y`$ and the parallel line through $`x`$; we call $`U(x,y)`$ the *natural slab* of $`x`$ and $`y`$. (Note the tangent line is not necessarily unique; if it is not we make some arbitrary choice.) We have $`U(x,y)=U(y,x)`$. It follows from the definition of $`U(x,y)`$ that if $`u`$ and $`v`$ are on opposite sides of $`U(x,y)`$, then

(7.1)
$$\tau (vu)\tau (yx).$$

The portion of $`U(x,y)`$ which is strictly to the right of the line from $`x`$ to $`y`$ is called the *natural half-slab* of $`x`$ and $`y`$ and denoted $`U_R(x,y)`$. For $`x,yU(u,v)`$ we let $`\stackrel{~}{U}_{uv}(x,y)`$ denote the open slab with sides parallel to those of $`U(u,v)`$ with $`x`$ in one edge of $`\stackrel{~}{U}_{uv}(x,y)`$ and $`y`$ in the other edge. We let $`\stackrel{~}{U}_{uv}^R(x,y)=\stackrel{~}{U}_{uv}(x,y)U_R(u,v)`$.

One or two of the dual sites adjacent to $`x`$ are in $`U(x,y)`$; we let $`x^{}`$ denote such a site, making an arbitrary choice if there are two. We define $`y^{}`$ analogously as a dual site in $`U(x,y)`$ adjacent to $`y`$.

By a *face of the dual lattice* we mean a square $`z+[\frac{1}{2},\frac{1}{2}]^2`$ with $`z^2`$. Let $`V(x,y)`$ denote the interior of the union of all faces of the dual lattice whose interiors are contained in $`\stackrel{~}{U}_{xy}(x^{},y^{})`$, and let $`T_x(x,y)`$ and $`T_y(x,y)`$ denote the components of $`V(x,y)^c`$ containing $`x`$ and $`y`$, respectively. (These components are distinct since $`|xy|4\sqrt{2}`$.) Then $`V(x,y)\stackrel{~}{U}_{xy}(x^{},y^{})U(x,y)`$.

The following lemma says roughly that typical open dual paths from $`x`$ to $`y`$ are connected to the boundary of the natural slab only near $`x`$ and $`y`$.

###### Lemma 7.1.

Let $`P`$ be a percolation model on $`(^2)`$ satisfying (2.7). There exist constants $`K_{90},K_{91},ϵ_{40}`$ as follows. For all $`x,y(^2)^{}`$ and $`JK_{90}\mathrm{log}|xy|`$,

$$P(xz\text{ for some }zV(x,y)\backslash (x+\mathrm{\Lambda }_J)xy)K_{91}e^{ϵ_{40}J}.$$

###### Proof.

As mentioned above, we omit some details. Suppose $`xy`$ and $`xz`$ for some $`zT_x(x,y)\backslash (x+\mathrm{\Lambda }_J)`$, via open dual paths. If $`K_{92}`$ is large, one can trivially dispose of the case in which $`xB(x,K_{92}|yx|)^c`$, so we hence forth tacitly consider only connections occuring inside $`B(x,K_{92}|yx|)`$; in particular this means $`|zx|K_{92}|yx|`$. There are then two cases: either there is an $`(ϵ_{41}J)`$-near connection from $`x`$ to $`y`$ in $`B(z,J/10)^c`$, or there is not; here $`ϵ_{41}`$ is to be specified. In the first case, there is also an open dual path from $`z`$ to $`(B(z,J/20)(^2)^{})`$, so we can apply (2.10) and Lemmas 3.1 and 6.5 (assuming $`K_{90}`$ is large) to obtain

(7.2) $`P`$ $`(N(x,y,ϵ_{41}J,B(z,J/10)^c)[z(B(z,J/20)(^2)^{})])`$
$`K_{93}Je^{\tau (yx)+K_{60}ϵ_{41}J}e^{\kappa _\tau J/40}`$
$`K_{94}e^{ϵ_{42}J}P(xy),`$
provided $`ϵ_{41}`$ is chosen small enough and $`K_{90}`$ large enough. In the second case, there exists dual sites $`v,w`$ just outside $`B(z,J/10)`$ and open dual paths $`xv`$ and $`wy`$ occuring at separation $`ϵ_{41}J`$. It follows easily from (7.1) and the fact that $`z`$ is close to $`U(x,y)`$ that

$$\tau (yw)\tau (yx)\frac{1}{5}\kappa _\tau J.$$

Also, since $`|zx|J`$,

(7.3)
$$\tau (vx)\tau (zx)\frac{1}{5}\kappa _\tau J\frac{1}{2}\kappa _\tau J.$$

Therefore by Lemma 3.2 and (2.10),

(7.4) $`P`$ $`(N(x,y,ϵ_{41}J,B(z,J/10)^c)^c[xy][xz])`$
$`{\displaystyle \underset{v,w}{}}2P(xv)P(wy)`$
$`K_{95}J^2e^{\tau (yx){\scriptscriptstyle \frac{3}{10}}\kappa _\tau J}`$
$`K_{96}e^{ϵ_{43}J}P(xy).`$
Now (7.2) and (7.4), summed over $`z`$ with $`|zx|K_{92}|yx|`$, prove the lemma. ∎

For dual sites $`x`$ and $`y`$, we say that $`xy`$ *cylindrically* if there is an open dual path $`\gamma `$ from $`x`$ to $`y`$ in $`U(x,y)`$ and every open dual path from $`\gamma `$ to $`U(x,y)^c`$ passes through $`x`$ or $`y`$.

For $`𝒟`$ a subgraph of the dual lattice (or just a set of dual bonds, which we may view as such a subgraph), and $`A^2`$, we define the *bond boundary of* $`𝒟`$ *in* $`A`$ to be the set of bonds contained in $`A`$ having exactly one endpoint in $`𝒟`$. (As always, we view bonds as open intervals contained in the plane.)

###### Lemma 7.2.

Let $`P`$ be a percolation model on $`(^2)`$ satisfying (2.7). There exist constants $`K_{97},ϵ_{44}`$ as follows. For all $`x,y(^2)^{}`$,

$$P(xy\text{ cylindrically})ϵ_{44}|yx|^{K_{97}}P(xy).$$

###### Proof.

Fix $`x,y`$ and let $`J=K_{90}\mathrm{log}|yx|`$, with $`K_{90}`$ from Lemma 7.1. Let $`𝒥_x(x,y)`$ denote the bond boundary of $`T_x(x,y)(x+\mathrm{\Lambda }_J)`$ in $`^2`$, and define $`𝒥_y(x,y)`$ analogously. For $`e𝒥_x(x,y)`$ let $`A_e`$ denote the event that all dual bonds in $`(T_x(x,y)(x+\mathrm{\Lambda }_J))`$ are open, $`e`$ and $`xx^{}`$ are open and all other bonds in $`𝒥_x(x,y)`$ are closed; define $`A_e`$ analogously for $`e𝒥_y(x,y)`$. Define the event

$$B=[xz\text{ for some }zV(x,y)\backslash (x+\mathrm{\Lambda }_J)]$$

(cf. Lemma 7.1.) Given a configuration $`\omega [xy]B^c`$, there necessarily exists an open dual path from $`T_x(x,y)(x+\mathrm{\Lambda }_J)`$ to $`T_y(x,y)(y+\mathrm{\Lambda }_J)`$ in $`V(x,y)`$ which contains only one bond in $`𝒥_x(x,y)`$ and one bond in $`𝒥_y(x,y)`$; we denote these two bonds by $`b_{xy}(x,\omega )`$ and $`b_{xy}(y,\omega )`$, respectively, making an arbitrary choice if more than one choice is possible. If the configuration $`\omega `$ is in $`[xy]B^c[b_{xy}(x)=e][b_{xy}(y)=f]`$ for some $`e,f`$, then we can modify at most $`16J`$ bonds (those in $`T_x(T_x(x,y)(x+\mathrm{\Lambda }_J))`$) to obtain a configuration in $`A_eA_f`$; in the resulting configuration we have $`xy\text{ cylindrically}`$. Therefore from the bounded energy property we have

$$P(xy\text{ cylindrically}[xy]B^c)e^{K_{98}J}$$

This and Lemma 7.1 prove the lemma. ∎

It is easy to check that Lemmas 7.1 and 7.2 are valid if we restrict to connections in the halfspace $`H_{xy}`$. More precisely, under the assumptions of Lemma 7.2 we have

(7.5)
$$P(xy\text{ cylindrically in }U_R(x,y))ϵ_{44}|yx|^{K_{97}}P(xy).$$

Additionally, we can extend the idea of cylindrical connections as follows: for $`u,v^2`$ and $`x,y`$ dual sites in $`U(u,v)`$, we say that $`xy(u,v)`$-*cylindrically* if there is an open dual path from $`x`$ to $`y`$ in $`\stackrel{~}{U}_{uv}(x,y)`$ and the dual cluster of $`x`$ and $`y`$ intersects $`\stackrel{~}{U}_{uv}(x,y)`$ only at $`x`$ and $`y`$. Provided $`x,yU_R(u,v)`$, the proof of Lemma 7.2 shows that

(7.6)
$$P(xy(u,v)\text{-cylindrically in }\stackrel{~}{U}_{uv}^R(x,y))ϵ_{44}|yx|^{K_{97}}P(xy\text{ in }H_{xy}).$$

###### Theorem 7.3.

Let $`P`$ be a percolation model on $`(^2)`$ satisfying (2.7), the near-Markov property for open circuits, positivity of $`\tau `$ and the ratio weak mixing property. There exist $`K_i`$ such that for $`A>K_{99}`$ and $`l=\sqrt{A}`$,

$$P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|=A)\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A}K_{100}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}).$$

###### Proof.

Fix $`A`$ large and let $`l=\sqrt{A}`$. Let $`a_1`$ denote the vertical coordinate of the point where $`𝒦_1`$ meets the positive vertical axis. Let $`s=l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}`$ and $`\delta =K_{30}s^2/l`$, with $`K_{30}`$ as in the proof of Theorem 4.1. Let $`\alpha =(l+\delta )𝒦_1`$ and let $`(z_0^{},..,z_n^{},z_0^{})`$ be the $`s`$-hull skeleton of $`\alpha `$. It is an easy exercise in geometry to see that the natural half-slabs $`U_R(z_i^{},z_{i+1}^{}),i=0,..,n`$, are disjoint. (Our labeling as usual is cyclical: $`z_{n+1}^{}=z_0^{}`$.) For some $`K_{101}`$ to be specified, let us call a pair $`(z_i^{},z_{i+1}^{})`$ from the skeleton *very short* if $`|z_{i+1}^{}z_i^{}|2\sqrt{2}`$, *short* if $`2\sqrt{2}<|z_{i+1}^{}z_i^{}|2K_{101}\mathrm{log}l`$ and *long* if $`|z_{i+1}^{}z_i^{}|>2K_{101}\mathrm{log}l`$. In what follows, very short pairs can be handled quite trivially but tediously, so for convenience we will assume there are no very short pairs. For long pairs we define $`x_i^{}`$ and $`y_{i+1}^{}`$ to be the points on the line segment $`\overline{z_i^{}z_{i+1}^{}}`$ at distance $`K_{101}\mathrm{log}l`$ from $`z_i^{}`$ and from $`z_{i+1}^{}`$, respectively, and let $`x_i,y_{i+1}`$ be dual sites in $`U_R(z_i^{},z_{i+1}^{})`$ within distance $`\sqrt{2}`$ of $`x_i^{}`$ and $`y_{i+1}^{}`$, respectively. For short pairs we let $`x_i=y_{i+1}`$ be a dual site in $`U_R(z_i^{},z_{i+1}^{})`$ within distance $`\sqrt{2}`$ of the midpoint of $`\overline{z_i^{}z_{i+1}^{}}`$. With minor modification of the definition of the $`s`$-hull skeleton, we may assume the set $`\{z_0^{},..,z_n^{}\}`$ has lattice symmetry, that is, for each $`z_i^{}`$ the reflection of $`z_i^{}`$ across the horizontal or vertical axis is another $`z_j^{}`$, and analogously for the sites $`x_i`$ and $`y_i`$. For each $`i`$ we let $`\varphi _i`$ denote a dual lattice path of minimal length from $`y_i`$ to $`x_i`$ outside $`\mathrm{Co}(\{z_0^{},..,z_n^{}\})\stackrel{~}{U}_{z_{i1}^{}z_i^{}}(x_{i1},y_i)\stackrel{~}{U}_{z_i^{}z_{i+1}^{}}(x_i,y_{i+1})`$. We call such a $`\varphi _i`$ a *short link*. Let $`𝒞_i`$ denote the bond boundary of $`\varphi _i`$ in $`(\mathrm{Co}(\{z_0^{},..,z_n^{}\})\stackrel{~}{U}_{z_{i1}^{}z_i^{}}(x_{i1},y_i)\stackrel{~}{U}_{z_i^{}z_{i+1}^{}}(x_i,y_{i+1}))^c`$.

Let $`\lambda _a`$ be the vertical line through $`(a,0)`$. Let $`H_L(x)`$ and $`H_R(x)`$ denote the open half planes to the left and right, respectively, of the vertical line through $`x`$. Let $`H_U(x)`$ and $`H_B(x)`$ denote the open half planes above and below the horizontal line through $`x`$, respectively. (In general we use the convention that subscripts $`L,R,U,B`$ refer to left, right, upper and lower halfspaces, respectively, with combinations, such as $`LU`$, referring to quadrants.) Let $`S(x,y)`$ denote the open slab between the vertical lines through $`x`$ and $`y`$. Let $`N`$ be the integer part of $`a_1l/2`$, $`M`$ the integer part of $`l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}`$ and $`D`$ the integer part of $`l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}`$. Let

$$u_{RU}^{}=H_R(0)H_U(0)\alpha \lambda _{M+\frac{1}{2}},v_{RU}^{}=H_R(0)H_U(0)\alpha \lambda _{M+D+\frac{1}{2}},$$

$$w_{RU}^{}=H_R(0)H_U(0)\alpha \lambda _{N+\frac{1}{2}},x_{RU}^{}=H_R(0)H_U(0)\alpha \lambda _{N+D+\frac{1}{2}}.$$

(Note each of these intersections is a single point.) We call these 4 points *determining points*. Lattice symmetry yields corresponding determining points with appropriate subscripts in the other three quadrants. We may assume that $`u_{RU}^{}`$ is one of the sites $`z_i^{}`$ of the $`s`$-hull skeleton of $`\alpha `$ (if not, we add $`u_{RU}^{}`$ to the skeleton), and analogously for the other sites just defined. Let $`u_{RU}`$ be the second closest dual site above $`u_{RU}^{}`$ in $`\lambda _{M+\frac{1}{2}}`$, and analogously for $`v_{RU},w_{RU},x_{RU}`$. If $`u_{RU}^{}=z_i^{}`$, for some $`i`$, we define $`z_i`$ to be $`u_{RU}`$, and again analogously for the other determining points. Loosely, the idea is to remove from $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ its intersection with each of the width-$`D`$ vertical slabs $`S(x_{LU},w_{LU}),S(v_{LU},u_{LU}),S(u_{RU},v_{RU})`$, $`S(w_{RU},x_{RU})`$, then raise or lower the segments of $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ between these slabs to adjust the area as desired, then reconnect these segments to make a new circuit enclosing area $`A`$. To do this we must first ensure that $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0`$ intersects each vertical line bounding any of these four slabs only twice.

We refer to the 4 width-$`D`$ vertical slabs above as *removal slabs*. We call the 5 regions $`H_L(x_{LU}),S(w_{LU},v_{LU}),S(u_{LU},u_{RU}),S(v_{RU},w_{RU}),H_R(x_{RU})`$ (whose closures together form the complement of the 4 removal slabs) *retention regions*. By a *retained segment* we mean a connected component of the intersection of $`\alpha `$ with a retention region. Each retained segment has the form $`\alpha ^{(z_j^{},z_k^{})}`$ for some $`j,k`$; we call $`z_j^{}`$ an *initial determining point* and $`z_k^{}`$ a *final determining point*, and call $`(j,k)`$ a *retention pair*. We let $`J^{ret}`$ denote the set of all 8 retention pairs. For each initial determining point $`z_j^{}`$, in the boundary of some retained region $`F`$, we let $`\psi _j`$ be a dual lattice path from $`z_j`$ to $`x_j`$ in $`F\backslash \stackrel{~}{U}_{z_j^{}z_{j+1}^{}}(x_j,y_{j+1})`$, of minimal length, and let $`𝒟_j`$ be the bond boundary of $`\psi _j`$ in $`\overline{F}\backslash \stackrel{~}{U}_{z_j^{}z_{j+1}^{}}(x_j,y_{j+1})\}`$. For each final determining point $`z_k^{}`$ we let $`\psi _k`$ be a dual lattice path from $`y_k`$ to $`z_k`$ in $`F\backslash \stackrel{~}{U}_{z_{k1}^{}z_k^{}}(x_{k1},y_k)`$, of minimal length, and define $`𝒟_k`$ analogously to $`𝒟_j`$. We refer to $`\psi _j`$ and $`\psi _k`$ as the *endpaths* of the retention pair $`(j,k)`$.

For each retention pair $`(j,k)`$ let $`I_{jk}=\{i:z_i^{},z_{i+1}^{}\alpha ^{(z_j^{},z_k^{})}\}`$ and let $`Q_{jk}`$ denote the event that (i) for each $`iI_{jk}\{j\}`$, we have $`x_iy_{i+1}(z_i^{},z_{i+1}^{})`$-cylindrically in $`\stackrel{~}{U}_{z_i^{}z_{i+1}^{}}^R(x_i,y_{i+1})`$, (ii) for each $`iI_{jk}`$ we have $`\varphi _i`$ open and all bonds in $`𝒞_i`$ closed, and (iii) both endpaths of $`(j,k)`$ are open and all bonds in $`𝒟_j𝒟_k`$ are closed. These 3 component events are denoted $`Q_{(i)}(j,k)`$, $`Q_{(ii)}(j,k)`$ and $`Q_{(iii)}(j,k)`$. For a configuration in $`Q_{jk}`$, the paths $`x_iy_{i+1}`$ together with the short links $`\varphi _i`$ and the two endpaths form an open dual path from $`z_j`$ to $`z_k`$ outside $`\mathrm{Co}(\{z_0^{},..,z_n^{}\})`$, and there is no open dual connection from this path to any point of the retention region boundary except $`z_j`$ and $`z_k`$. By Lemma 3.1, (7.6) and Theorem 4.2, provided $`K_{101}`$ is large we have

(7.7) $`P`$ $`(Q_{(i)}(j,k))`$
$`\left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{|I_{jk}|}{\displaystyle \underset{iI_{jk}\{j\}}{}}P(x_iy_{i+1}(z_i^{},z_{i+1}^{})\text{cylindrically in }\stackrel{~}{U}_{z_i^{}z_{i+1}^{}}^R(x_i,y_{i+1}))`$
$`\left({\displaystyle \frac{ϵ_{45}}{l}}\right)^{|I_{jk}|+1}\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \underset{iI_{jk}\{j\}}{}}\tau (y_{i+1}x_i)\right)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \underset{iI_{jk}\{j\}}{}}\tau (z_{i+1}z_i)K_{102}|I_{jk}|\mathrm{log}l\right).`$
From the bounded energy property,

$$P\left(Q_{(ii)}(j,k)Q_{(iii)}(j,k)Q_{(i)}(j,k)\right)\mathrm{exp}(K_{103}|I_{jk}|\mathrm{log}l)$$

which with (7.7) yields

(7.8)
$$P(Q_{jk})\mathrm{exp}\left(\underset{iI_{jk}\{j\}}{}\tau (z_{i+1}z_i)K_{104}|I_{jk}|\mathrm{log}l\right).$$

For a configuration $`\omega Q_{jk}`$, and for $`F`$ the retention region with $`z_j^{},z_k^{}F`$, we can associate an area $`R_{jk}(\omega )`$ as follows. There is a unique outermost open dual path $`\mathrm{\Xi }_{jk}(\omega )`$ from $`z_j`$ to $`z_k`$ in $`F`$. If $`F`$ is a halfspace ($`H_L(x_{LU})`$ or $`H_R(x_{RU}))`$, then $`R_{jk}(\omega )`$ is the area of the region between $`\mathrm{\Xi }_{jk}(\omega )`$ and $`\overline{z_jz_k}`$. If $`F`$ is a slab and $`z_j^{},z_k^{}H_U(0)`$, then $`R_{jk}(\omega )`$ is the area of the region in $`FH_U(0)`$ below $`\mathrm{\Xi }_{jk}(\omega )`$. If $`F`$ is a slab and $`z_j^{},z_k^{}H_B(0)`$, then $`R_{jk}(\omega )`$ is the area of the region in $`FH_B(0)`$ above $`\mathrm{\Xi }_{jk}(\omega )`$. We define corresponding nonrandom areas $`R_{jk}^0`$ similarly but using $`\alpha ^{(z_j^{}z_k^{})}`$ in place of $`\mathrm{\Xi }_{jk}(\omega )`$. Then $`R_{jk}(\omega )R_{jk}^0`$.

It is not hard to see that for some $`K_{105}`$ we have

(7.9) $`P`$ $`(R_{jk}R_{jk}^0+K_{105}l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}\text{ for some}`$
$`\text{retention pair }(j,k)_{(j,k)J^{ret}}Q_{jk}){\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}.`$
In fact, if this were false we could obtain extra area $`K_{105}l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}`$ almost “for free” in Theorem 4.1; more precisely, one could replace $`A`$ with $`A+K_{105}l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}`$ on the left side in the conclusion of that theorem. But, assuming $`K_{105}`$ is large, this would contradict Theorem 5.7. It follows from (7.9) that for each retention pair $`(z_j^{},z_k^{})`$ there exists $`a_{jk}[R_{jk}^0,R_{jk}^0+K_{105}l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3})`$ such that

(7.10) $`P`$ $`\left(_{(j,k)J^{ret}}[R_{jk}=a_{jk}]_{(j,k)J^{ret}}Q_{jk}\right)`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}(K_{105}l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3})^8.`$
Let

$$R_1=\underset{(j,k)J^{ret}}{}a_{jk},$$

where the sum is over the 8 retention pairs.

We call $`(k,j)`$ a *removal pair* if $`\alpha ^{(z_k^{},z_j^{})}`$ is a connected component of the intersection of $`\alpha `$ with some removal slab. Let $`J^{rem}`$ denote the set of all 8 removal pairs. For each removal pair $`(k,j)`$ and corresponding removal slab $`F`$, let $`\chi _{kj}`$ be a dual path from $`z_k`$ to $`z_j`$ in $`\overline{F}\backslash \mathrm{Co}(\{z_0^{},..,z_n^{}\})`$, and let $`G_{kj}`$ denote the event that all bonds in $`\chi _{kj}`$ are open, while all bonds in the bond boundary of $`\chi _{kj}`$ in $`(\psi _j\psi _k)^c`$ are closed. We call $`\chi _{kj}`$ a *long link*. There are 2 long links in each removal slab, one each in the upper and lower half planes. Let $`R_2`$ be the total area in the 4 removal slabs, between the upper and lower long link in each slab. Assuming the long links are chosen to have length of order $`D`$ (say, at most $`4D`$), we have from the bounded energy property that

(7.11) $`P`$ $`\left(_{(k,j)J^{rem}}G_{z_k^{},z_j^{}}(_{(j,k)J^{ret}}Q_{jk})(_{(j,k)J^{ret}}[R_{jk}=a_{jk}])\right)`$
$`e^{K_{106}D}`$
$`e^{K_{107}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}}.`$
Define the event

$$E=\left(_{(j,k)J^{ret}}Q_{jk}\right)\left(_{(j,k)J^{ret}}[R_{jk}=a_{jk}]\right)\left(_{(k,j)J^{rem}}G_{kj}\right).$$

For a configuration $`\omega E`$, there is an open dual circuit surrounding $`\mathrm{Co}(\{z_0^{},..,z_n^{}\})`$ satsifying the constraint that it include all of the short links $`\varphi _i`$, long links $`\chi _{kj}`$ and endpaths $`\psi _j`$. There is a unique outermost such circuit subject to this constraint, obtained by taking the outermost $`(z_i^{},z_{i+1}^{})`$-cylindrical connection from $`x_i`$ to $`y_{i+1}`$ for each $`i`$; we denote this circuit $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_1(\omega )`$. Because of the cylindrical nature of these connections and the closed state of the bond boundaries of the short and long links, we have $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_1(\omega )=\mathrm{\Gamma }_0(\omega )`$, unless $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0(\omega )`$ and $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_1(\omega )`$ are disjoint with $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0(\omega )`$ surrounding $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_1(\omega )`$ and no open dual path connecting $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_0(\omega )`$ to $`\mathrm{\Gamma }_1(\omega )`$. It therefore follows from the near-Markov property that

$$P(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0\mathrm{\Gamma }_1E)e^{ϵ_{46}l}\frac{1}{2}.$$

By (3.2),

$$\underset{(j,k)J^{ret}}{}|I_{jk}|K_{108}\frac{l}{s}K_{109}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}.$$

Using these facts with (7.10), (7.11), Lemma 3.1, (7.8) and (4.1) (which is still valid here), we obtain

(7.12) $`P`$ $`(|\mathrm{\Gamma }_0|=R_1+R_2)`$
$`P(E[\mathrm{\Gamma }_0=\mathrm{\Gamma }_1])`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}P(E)`$
$`{\displaystyle \frac{1}{2}}(K_{105}l^{4/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3})^8e^{K_{107}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}}P(_{(j,k)J^{ret}}Q_{jk})`$
$`e^{K_{110}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}}{\displaystyle \underset{(j,k)J^{ret}}{}}P(Q_{jk})`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left({\displaystyle \underset{i=0}{\overset{n}{}}}\tau (z_{i+1}z_i)K_{111}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}\right)`$
$`\mathrm{exp}\left(w_1\sqrt{A}K_{112}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}\right).`$
Let $`\theta \omega `$ be the upward shift of a configuration $`\omega `$ by 1 unit, and for an event $`G`$ let $`\theta ^mG=\{\omega :\theta ^m\omega G\}`$. Let $`J_B^{ret}`$ be the set consisting of the 3 retention pairs corresponding to segments of $`\alpha `$ in the lower half plane. Given a constant $`K_{113}`$, for $`mK_{113}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}`$ we can replace $`Q_{jk}`$ with $`\theta ^mQ_{jk}`$ for all $`(j,k)J_B^{ret}`$ throughout the argument leading to (7.12) at the expense of only a possible increase in $`K_{111}`$, provided we alter the 4 long links $`\chi _{kj}`$ in the outer 2 removal slabs to connect to the appropriate shifted sites $`z_i+(0,m)`$ instead of to $`z_i`$. (The possible increase in $`K_{111}`$ reflects a possible reduction in the probabilities of the events $`G_{kj}`$, resulting in an increase of $`K_{107}`$ in (7.11).) We can readily keep the area $`R_2`$ fixed when we so alter the long links. We thereby obtain

$$P(|\mathrm{\Gamma }_0|=R_1+R_2(2N+1)m)\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A}K_{114}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}).$$

Provided $`K_{113}`$ is large, we can choose $`m`$ so that

$$|R_1+R_2(2N+1)mA|N.$$

We can then repeat this entire argument, but shift upward (by some amount $`qK_{113}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}`$) only the event $`Q_{jk}`$ for the central of the 3 retention pairs in $`J_B^{ret}`$. This gives

(7.13)
$$P(|\mathrm{\Gamma }_0|=R_1+R_2(2N+1)m(2M+1)q)\mathrm{exp}(w_1\sqrt{A}K_{115}l^{1/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{2/3}).$$

We can choose $`k`$ so that

$$|R_1+R_2(2N+1)m(2M+1)qA|Ml^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}.$$

But it is easy to see that one can alter the long links to change $`R_2`$ by any amount up to $`l^{2/3}(\mathrm{log}l)^{1/3}`$, so that

$$R_1+R_2(2N+1)m(2M+1)q=A,$$

at the expense of only a possible increase to $`K_{115}`$ in (7.13). With (7.13) this completes the proof. ∎

Now that we can use Theorem 7.3 in place of Theorem 4.1, all proofs leading to Theorems 2.12.3 remain valid under conditioning on $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|=A`$ in place of $`|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|A`$. This establishes the following results.

###### Theorem 7.4.

Under the assumptions in Theorem 2.1 or Theorem 2.2, under the measure $`P(|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|=A)`$ the conclusions (2.13) – (2.16) hold with probability approaching 1 as $`A\mathrm{}`$.

###### Theorem 7.5.

Under the assumptions in Theorem 2.3, under the measures $`P_{N,w}(_{\gamma _N}|\mathrm{Int}(\mathrm{\Gamma }_0)|=A)`$ the conclusions (2.19) – (2.23) hold with probability approaching 1 as $`A\mathrm{}`$.